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Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Xi and Trump may not meet in G20.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2169728/two-us-navy-ships-sail-through-taiwan-strait-move-likely-anger

There is a high chance that Xi will reject to meet Trump in the G20 next month if Trump continues to antagonize China.

Stocks will fall again in November when the 2 leaders don't meet in G20 because the trade war will escalate further.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Temasek retail bonds oversubscribed by 8x.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/temasek-retail-bonds-oversubscribed-interest-rate-guaranteed-10856234

Did Temasek's retail bond subscription perform well?

Well, the subscription rate of 8x is considered to be just alright but not spectacular.

Why? This is because a government conglomerate like Temasek should do better as it has a better background and AAA credit rating.

Xiaomi IPO was oversubscribed by 9.5x which did better than Temasek's despite having a lower credit rating.

https://www.ft.com/content/c28dc7f6-80b3-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Jardine Strategic - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Jardine Strategic 36.65 42.67 Not Rated

Jardine Matheson - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Jardine Matheson 63.2 65.72 Not Rated

Jardine C&C - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Jardine C&C 30.77 44.13 Not Rated

Stock calls for 23 October 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/23/18 DMG & Partners Best World 1.49 1.97 Buy PER13x FY19
10/23/18 CIMB Dairy Farm 8.95 9.55 Hold
10/23/18 Lim & Tan Mapletree Logistics 1.23 0 Hold
10/23/18 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.05 1.26 Add

The US disgraced Taiwan and Taiwan welcomed it.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-warships-sail-through-taiwan-strait-10854036

I didn't know that the Taiwan Strait in Taiwan's territory was an international sea area whereby vessels were free to navigate without permission.

The US vessels sailed through the Taiwan Strait in Taiwan's territory while China naval vessels followed the US in China's territory.  What the US did was telling the world that Taiwan's territory was an international water in which any vessel could perform freedom of navigation without permission.

I couldn't believe that Taiwan would welcome the US's FON in its territory.  What a joke!

OMG! Temasek invests in a high risk business again!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/temasek-backed-vertex-invests-cryptocurrency-041123231.html

Cryptocurrency is a high-risk investment and it is still evolving.  Therefore, it is unwise for Temasek to invest in a high-risk business using our government coffer.

Any serious financial institution won't use a public blockchain because confidential information shouldn't be accessed by other public nodes.  This is the reason the world bank issued its bond based on its own private blockchain as this couldn't connect with any public blockchain.  What does this mean? This means there won't be a massive adoption of the public blockchain by serious financial institutions.

Sigh! Temasek is going to lose our money again!

Microplastics found in a human for the first time!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/microplastic-found-humans-first-time-220000093.html

This is really bad.  We're killing ourselves by ingesting plastics in our food chains.

We've reported about microplastics last year.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/12/seafood-health-alerts-in-norway-chile.html

USD has a supply shortage now.


How did we know about the USD supply shortage?

Well, we just need to look at the USD Libor.  USD Libor is at an all time 5-year high now according to the chart above.

USD Libor is the bank rate that the banks in London set for lending USD among themselves and this rate has been trending much higher in 2018 which denotes that there is a supply shortage.  Therefore, this means that USD will continue to appreciate due to the higher rates and supply shortage because of QE tapering.

US housing downturn is brewing again!


The US 30-year mortgage rate is fast approaching 5% and it won't stop rising.

The US home sales have been trending down because of rising interest rates in 2018.

This property downturn doesn't bode well for the USA because it will affect the main street and the wall street.  Property stocks and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will be badly affected and we'll have a US financial crisis again.

Fake Singapore dollar alert!


There are fake Singapore dollars appearing in Hougang area.  Please be careful!

Monday, October 22, 2018

Japfa - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/24/17 CIMB Japfa 0.92 1.53 Add Sum of parts, PER11.6x CY17
02/10/17 DBS Vickers Japfa 1.02 1.26 Buy
03/03/17 CIMB Japfa 0.9 1.41 Add Sum of parts
03/06/17 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.89 1.25 Buy Sum of parts, PER10.1x FY17
04/10/17 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.835 1.25 Buy
04/17/17 CIMB Japfa 0.805 0.69 Reduce Sum of parts
04/24/17 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.63 1 Buy Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda6.5x FY17, PER10.5x FY17
05/02/17 CIMB Japfa 0.605 0.58 Reduce Sum of parts, PER8.2x CY17, PER7.2x CY18
05/02/17 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.605 0.84 Buy Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY17
07/05/17 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.65 0.88 Buy Sum of parts
07/31/17 CIMB Japfa 0.595 0.55 Reduce Sum of parts
06/22/18 Kim Eng Japfa 0.625 0.86 Buy Sum of parts, PER14x FY18
08/01/18 Kim Eng Japfa 0.745 0.86 Buy Sum of parts
09/11/18 CIMB Japfa 0.595 0.8 Add Sum of parts
10/17/18 UOB Kay Hian Japfa 0.61 0.9 Buy Sum of parts, PER12.2x FY18

Japan Foods - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/17/17 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.445 0.56 Buy DCF, PER18x FY18
05/29/17 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.48 0.54 Buy DCF, PER18.7x FY18
08/04/17 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.43 0.53 Buy DCF
11/15/17 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.43 0.53 Buy DCF
02/14/18 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.46 0.54 Buy DCF
05/07/18 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.505 0.63 Buy DCF, PER19x FY19
05/22/18 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.485 0.64 Buy DCF
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.5 0.63 Buy
08/08/18 DMG & Partners Japan Foods 0.49 0.58 Buy Sum of parts, PER16.6x FY19
08/21/18 Amfrasers Japan Foods 0.5 0.64 Buy DCF

Jadason - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/08/17 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.07 0.15 Buy DCF, PER12x FY18
06/27/17 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.088 0.15 Buy DCF, PER12x FY18
07/03/17 CIMB Jadason 0.084 0.17 Add PER12.34x FY18
08/04/17 CIMB Jadason 0.103 0.17 Add PER12.34x FY18
08/07/17 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.1 0.15 Buy DCF, PER12x FY18
09/04/17 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.102 0.12 Buy DCF, PER11.4x FY18
09/05/17 CIMB Jadason 0.095 0.13 Add PER12.34x FY18
11/09/17 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.093 0.1 Buy DCF, PER11.3x FY18
11/13/17 CIMB Jadason 0.087 0.11 Add PER12.34x FY19
03/01/18 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.073 0.08 Neutral DCF
03/07/18 CIMB Jadason 0.07 0.08 Add PER12.34x FY19
05/16/18 CIMB Jadason 0.05 0.077 Add PB1x CY18
05/18/18 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.05 0.05 Neutral DCF
06/27/18 DMG & Partners Jadason 0.04 0.05 Neutral
08/17/18 CIMB Jadason 0.037 0.073 Add PB1x CY18

Stock calls for 22 October 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/22/18 UOB Kay Hian Asian Healthcare 0.265 0.33 Buy
10/22/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Commercial Trust 1.43 1.7 Buy DCF
10/22/18 OCBC Frasers Commercial Trust 1.43 1.56 Buy
10/22/18 CIMB Frasers Commercial Trust 1.43 1.5 Hold DDM
10/22/18 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.64 0 Hold
10/22/18 UOB Kay Hian Propnex 0.535 0.65 Buy DCF, PER10x FY19
10/22/18 phillip SGX 6.93 9.01 Buy PER25.2x
10/22/18 DMG & Partners SGX 6.93 8.4 Buy PER23x FY19
10/22/18 OCBC SGX 6.93 7.96 Buy PER22x F19/20
10/22/18 CIMB SGX 6.93 7.6 Add PER22.1x FY20

Nuclear arms race is happening again!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-us-withdraw-nuclear-201727884.html

Trump has announced that the US will withdraw from the nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

Great, we will have more nuclear arms that can destroy the earth now!

Russia and US will ramp up their nuclear weapons now.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Xi Jinping and Trump agreed to meet in G20 in November 2018.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2169378/xi-jinping-donald-trump-agree-talks-g20-summit-next-month

This tentative meeting is based upon a friendly agreement.  If there is an unfriendly gesture from the US prior to G20 summit, Xi will definitely cancel the meeting.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Apple urged Bloomberg to retract the fake spy chip story.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-ceo-urges-bloomberg-retract-spy-chip-story-230310532--finance.html

Apple felt insulted by the fake Bloomberg's spy chip story and demanded Bloomberg to retract it because there was no way that Bloomberg understood technology better than Apple.

We stated previously that it was impossible to produce such a rice grain size 3-in-1 microchip.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-us-is-embarking-on-anti-china.html

Japan is no longer a member of the UN security council.

Japan is no longer a member of the UN security council in 2018.  The UN security council is made up of 15 members with 5 being permanent members whilst the rest are holding a 2-year renewable member seat.