CEI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.945	0.97	Hold	PER10x FY20

Stock calls for 22 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/22/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3.03	2.88	Neutral
07/22/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.785	0.75	Neutral
07/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.15	2.18	Neutral	DDM
07/22/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.64	2.21	Neutral
07/22/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.59	1.66	Accumulate
07/22/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.8	2.65	Neutral	DCF
07/22/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.875	0.94	Accumulate
07/22/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.755	0.87	Buy
07/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.82	Buy	DDM
07/22/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.36	Neutral
07/22/19	Amfrasers	Keppel Corp	6.57	7.43	Neutral	Sum of parts
07/22/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	6.57	8.5	Buy	Sum of parts
07/22/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.31	2.03	Neutral
07/22/19	OCBC	SATS	5	5.28	Hold	FCFF
07/22/19	phillip	SATS	5	5.47	Accumulate
07/22/19	Lim & Tan	SATS	5	0	Hold
07/22/19	CIMB	UOB	26.94	29.58	Add
07/22/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.54	19.74	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g

Stay away from Hong Kong!

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3019524/least-10-injured-baton-wielding-mob-suspected-triad

Rioters are hitting people indiscriminately in HK.

Do not visit HK for the time being for your own safety.

Singapore based Flextronics is kicked out of Huawei's supply chain.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-07-18/Huawei-kicks-its-top-phone-assembler-out-of-the-supply-chain-Ir4fTFS79S/index.html

Huawei has kicked Flextronics out of its supply chain. Although Flextronics is a Singapore based company, it is actually an American firm.  Huawei is a major customer of Flextronics and losing such a big customer will impact heavily on its earnings.

Flextronics may also be added to China's unreliable entity list and will be shut out of China's market.

Trump's racist remarks are winning him votes!

Trump is a racist, insolent and perverted curmudgeon but he is winning votes for being a white supremacist.  By keeping the anguish of his white nationalists high, he is likely to be re-elected because the majority of the white people have such core values and mindsets.

"Send her back" has become a catchphrase of his white nationalists.  In fact, this racist and xenophobic propaganda has raised his support within his own party according to a recent poll.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-49034885/ilhan-omar-send-her-back-chants-at-trump-rally

If Trump is re-elected with this racist election campaign, it really reflects the mindsets and core values of the Americans.  Therefore, we must take cognizance of this reality and be careful about how we deal with the Americans in the future.

China released spy satellite images of US airforce near Iran.

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-07-16/doc-ihytcerm4066453.shtml

China is helping Iran by monitoring the US airforce buildup near Iran with its own spy satellites.

China even interpreted the images for Iran and predicted the whereabouts of F35 and F22.

This will help Iran to better deploy its air defence missiles systems.  We also must not forget Russia which will help Iran too.

Baltic dry index - 2170

Today, Friday, July 19 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 40 points, reaching 2170 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 954

Related stock: Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine & Cosco.

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.46	1.8	Buy	DDM
01/02/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.46	1.63	Add
01/17/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.75	Buy
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.83	Buy
01/31/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.64	Add	DDM
01/31/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.56	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.85	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Add
02/28/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.8	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.65	1.85	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.67	1.8	Buy
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.77	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.54	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.85	Buy
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.99	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.61	1.85	Add	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.61	1.77	Buy
06/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.62	2.06	Buy	DDM
06/25/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.66	1.77	Buy
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.65	2.06	Buy

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.42	Hold
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.65	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.39	1.66	Accumulate
03/21/19	Amfrasers	CapitaRetail China	1.52	1.61	Buy	DDM
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.57	1.65	Buy
04/26/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.51	1.5	Hold
06/11/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.56	1.5	Hold
06/12/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.35	Sell
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.53	1.65	Buy
06/12/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaRetail China	1.53	0	Hold
06/14/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.5	1.38	Hold
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.66	Accumulate

Capitamall Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/22/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.26	2.29	Hold	DDM
01/23/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.27	2.12	Hold
01/24/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.09	Neutral	DDM, PB1.06x FY19
01/24/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.25	Hold	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.25	Hold
01/24/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.31	2.44	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.02	Hold	Buy @ $1.84
02/15/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.38	2.09	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.42	2.25	Hold
03/14/19	DMG & Partners	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.2	Neutral	DDM
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.41	2.4	Hold	DDM
04/24/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.32	2.25	Hold
04/25/19	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.55	Buy
04/25/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.36	2.32	Hold
04/26/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.21	Neutral	DDM
04/26/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.39	Hold	DDM
05/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.44	2.65	Buy	DDM
06/06/19	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.46	2.33	Hold
06/19/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.57	2.21	Neutral
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.58	2.65	Hold
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Capitamall Trust	2.6	2.4	Hold
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Capitamall Trust	2.71	2.2	Neutral

Stock calls for 19 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.46	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.78	0.75	Hold	DCF
07/19/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	2.15	1.98	Neutral	DDM
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
07/19/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	6.59	7.3	Buy	Sum of parts
07/19/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.59	8.41	Add
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	6.59	7.61	Buy
07/19/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.59	0	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	2.07	2.25	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.61	1.85	Buy
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.45	1.65	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.32	4.8	Sell
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.32	5	Hold	DCF
07/19/19	CIMB	SATS	5.32	5.4	Hold	PER21.9x CY20
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.6	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.615	0.63	Hold	DCF

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 5

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3018924/chinas-may-holdings-us-treasuries-dip-third-straight-month-two

China sold US treasuries in May 2019 again.

We've explained the selloff in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Capitaland - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.11	4	Buy
01/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.07	3.96	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
01/07/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.06	3.55	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.27	3.62	Buy
01/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.27	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
02/20/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.39	0	Buy
02/21/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.43	3.98	Buy	RNAV
02/21/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.43	4	Accumulate	PB0.75x FY19
02/21/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.43	3.56	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.43	3.62	Buy
03/18/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.44	3.98	Buy
03/21/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.47	0	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.44	3.56	Add
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitaland	3.65	4.4	Buy
04/02/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.69	3.9	Outperform	RNAV (30% discount)
04/02/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	3.98	Buy
05/02/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.53	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.53	0	Hold
05/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.54	4.04	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.54	3.56	Add
05/27/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.28	4	Buy	RNAV (25% discount)
06/12/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.41	4	Buy
06/18/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.42	4.1	Outperform	RNAV (25% discount)
07/05/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.69	4	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.69	4	Accumulate
07/15/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.69	4.15	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
07/15/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.69	4.04	Buy

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.75	1.9	Accumulate
01/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.82	2.11	Buy	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.83	1.68	Hold
01/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2.16	Buy	DDM
01/25/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.85	1.86	Neutral	DDM
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2	Buy	DCF
01/25/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.85	0	Hold
01/28/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.83	Hold
01/28/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.94	Add
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.86	1.93	Accumulate
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.98	1.86	Neutral
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.92	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.93	Neutral	DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.86	Neutral	DDM
04/22/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.88	Hold
04/22/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.03	Add	DDM
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.93	0	Hold
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.9	2.16	Buy
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF, PB1.15x
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.95	2.16	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.05	2.16	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.11	1.93	Neutral
06/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.14	1.88	Sell
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	2.23	1.86	Neutral
07/17/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.18	1.88	Sell
07/17/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	2.18	0	Hold
07/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.17	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.4	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Kim Eng	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.8	Hold
07/18/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.92	Sell
07/18/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.25	Add

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Neutral	DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Hold	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.76	Hold
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.81	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.74	Hold
01/28/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.85	Buy
02/15/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.71	0.75	Neutral
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.81	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.7	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.88	Buy
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.75	Hold	DCF
04/26/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/19/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.79	0.75	Neutral
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.785	0.83	Buy

Stock calls for 18 July 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/18/19	CIMB	AEM	1.04	1.23	Add	PER10x FY20
07/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.17	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.4	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Kim Eng	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.8	Hold
07/18/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.92	Sell
07/18/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.25	Add
07/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.71	Hold	DDM
07/18/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.67	Hold	DDM
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.82	0.9	Buy
07/18/19	Lim & Tan	Soilbuild Reit	0.61	0	Hold
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.5	1.82	Buy

A banking crisis is developing in Vietnam.

The US-China trade war is causing a banking crisis to develop in Vietnam.  Why?

In order to avoid the US-China trade tariffs, many businesses are shifting their manufacturing and production factories to Vietnam.  This relocation phenomenon has caused the ire of the US and Trump has imposed 456% on Vietnam's steels re-exports.  Trump looks ready to impose more tariffs against Vietnam for other goods.

As Vietnam has a very lax bank lending regulation, many foreign businesses borrow from local banks to build factories and ramp up their productions.  If the made-in-Vietnam products are taxed with additional tariffs by the US, Vietnam's exports will drop drastically and this will impact the banking industry in Vietnam because the non-performing loans will increase tremendously.

Vietnam, with just a population of 97m, won't be able to fight the trade war against the US and has to compromise to buy more US goods to avoid the additional tariffs.

A possible bank run at Deutsche Bank?

Deutsche Bank has a simmering bank run situation now.  Why?

Although Deutsche Bank is an investment bank and not a retail bank, it is facing a simmering cash flow problem because many hedge fund managers are withdrawing their funds from Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers are afraid that they won't be able to withdraw their funds if they don't act fast as they've heard of the massive withdrawal problem at Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers know that Deutsche Bank is not doing well now and has to retrench 18,000 employees.

Deutsche Bank is a bank that is too big to fail because it will affect the global banking system and is much bigger than Lehman Brothers.

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.67	0.81	Buy
02/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.685	0.81	Buy	PER11x FY19
02/21/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.69	0.96	Buy
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.67	0.67	Neutral	PER11x FY19
02/27/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.675	0.97	Buy	PER13x FY19
02/28/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.665	0.85	Buy	DCF, PER13.9x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.725	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.69	0.8	Buy	DCF, PER18x FY19
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.7	0.62	Neutral
05/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Hold
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.665	0.62	Neutral
06/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.615	0.81	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.63	1.01	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.605	0.75	Buy	DCF