Stock calls for 3 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/20	CIMB	Boustead	0.76	1	Add	Sum of parts
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.11	30	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.94	1.04	Buy	DCF
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.45	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.4	3.6	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.42	1.43	Buy	EV/Ebitda6x
01/03/20	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.85	2.08	Buy	DDM
01/03/20	Kim Eng	UMS	1.08	1.13	Buy	PB2.2x FY20

Facebook is intervening in Asia politics under the US directives.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/facebook-steps-up-monitoring-for-taiwan-elections

Facebook is setting up election monitoring offices in Taiwan and Singapore to intervene in local elections.

How will Facebook intervene in Asia's local elections?

First, they will set up a "war room" to monitor the election candidates' groups and remove the FB pages to silence the voices of the election candidates online.  Facebook will only allow the voices of those favoured candidates to be heard or seen online.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/ast/201912300015.aspx

FB has already removed Taiwan Han's groups because he is pro-China.  FB may do the same thing in SG by removing the oppositions' groups.

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201912130019.aspx

The US layoffs hit its highest level while the unemployment rate was at its lowest.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-hit-4-year-high-in-2019-challenger-gray-data-says-190116585.html

The US unemployment rate was at its lowest while the layoffs hit its highest level.  How come?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html

The only explanation for this conundrum is that the US employment rate has an error since it is survey-based and is subjected to manipulation (fudging).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/08/economic-101-dont-let-unemployment-rate.html

800Super - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	Phillip	800Super	0.685	0	Cease Coverage	DCF
06/10/19	Novus	800Super	0.89	0.9	Accept offer	offer $0.90

Yongnam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.4	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/07/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.41	Add	PB0.8x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.173	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
04/05/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
05/17/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.169	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
08/15/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.171	0.28	Add

Yoma - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.345	0.4	Buy
04/11/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.32	0.57	Buy	Sum of parts (20% discount)
06/03/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.33	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.375	0.5	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
12/26/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.335	0.57	Buy

Stock calls for 2 January 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.75	4.5	Buy	RNAV (18% discount)
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	10.95	13	Buy	RNAV (18% discount), PB1.08x FY2020
01/02/20	DMG & Partners	SGX	8.86	8.8	Neutral	PER23x FY21
01/02/20	DBS Vickers	UOL	8.32	9.5	Buy	RNAV (28% discount), PB0.8x

Yanlord - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.39	1.75	Buy	PER5x
04/12/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.47	1.75	Buy	PER5x FY19
05/16/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.44	1.68	Buy	PER5x FY19/20
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.44	1.47	Hold	PER6x FY19/20
07/15/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.32	1.68	Buy
08/14/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.13	1.68	Buy	PER5x FY19/20

Yangzijiang - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.42	1.82	Buy
03/01/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.43	1.61	Add	Sum of parts
03/04/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.44	Hold
03/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.39	Hold	PB0.9x FY19, Buy @ $1.25
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.82	buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x
05/02/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.45	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
06/11/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.4	1.45	Hold
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.5	1.82	Buy
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.37	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.04	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts
09/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.98	1.46	Buy	PB0.84x
10/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.95	1.46	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.98	1.46	Buy	PB0.9x
11/18/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1	1.68	Buy	Sum of parts
11/25/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.02	1.45	Add
12/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.09	1.46	Buy	PB0.84x
12/23/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.07	1.68	Buy
12/27/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.13	1.45	Add

Y Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Y Venture	0.13	0.11	Cease Coverage	EV/Ebitda14x FY19
01/28/19	CIMB	Y Venture	0.13	0.1	Reduce	PB1.7x FY20
03/08/19	Phillip	Y Venture	0.078	0.16	Buy	PER30x
03/25/19	CIMB	Y Venture	0.06	0.15	Add
04/17/19	Phillip	Y Venture	0.156	0.16	Cease Coverage

Stock calls for 31 December 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
12/31/19	CIMB	AEM	1.99	2.12	Add

How is China's economy doing? - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-markets-following-positive-pmi-214800477.html

China PMI showed a positive reading of 50.2 again in December.

We had stated on numerous occasions that China PMI would be in an expansion mode compared to the US PMI.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/how-is-chinas-economy-doing.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/china-pmi-had-expanded-as-we-had.html

The accelerating China PMI will be supporting its economy.

Wing Tai - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.03	2.41	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.06	2.41	Buy
05/14/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.01	2.41	Buy
06/27/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.05	2.41	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.07	2.41	Buy
10/15/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.07	2.27	Buy

Wilmar - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.16	3.58	Buy
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.13	3.9	Buy
02/20/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.37	3.42	Hold
02/20/19	UBS	Wilmar	3.37	3.8	Buy
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.39	3.58	Buy
02/22/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.39	3.96	Add	Sum of parts
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.39	3.9	Buy
02/25/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.26	3.63	Buy	Sum of parts
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.26	3.6	Buy	DCF, PER15.4x FY19
03/12/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.2	3.96	Add	Sum of parts
03/12/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.2	3.6	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.24	3.63	Buy
03/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.3	3.9	Buy
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.48	3.9	Buy
04/09/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.49	3.44	Hold	PB0.9x
04/09/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.49	3.96	Add
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.64	3.9	Buy
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.51	3.8	Buy	Sum of parts
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.51	3.86	Buy	DCF, PER15.6x FY19
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.5	3.94	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.5	3.66	Hold	PB0.95x
05/16/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.5	3.96	Add	Sum of parts
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.3	3.94	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.41	3.9	Buy	PER12.8x FY20
07/03/19	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.73	4.21	Buy	DCF & PER17.5x FY20
07/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.79	3.9	Buy
07/09/19	UBS	Wilmar	3.79	4.5	Buy
07/15/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.76	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
07/16/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.83	5.54	Add	Normal target price is $3.96
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.83	4.3	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.2x FY20
07/17/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.83	4.26	Buy	Sum of parts
07/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.06	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.05	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
08/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.05	4.5	Buy
08/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.86	4.4	Buy
08/16/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.78	4.26	Buy
08/16/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.78	4.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
08/22/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.81	4.58	Add
08/22/19	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.81	3.89	Hold
09/04/19	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.8	3.89	Hold	DCF
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.8	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts
09/13/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.86	4.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
09/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.72	4.4	Buy
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.72	4.75	Buy	Sum of parts
10/09/19	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.63	3.89	Hold	DCF
10/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.63	4.4	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.83	4.4	Buy
11/13/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.85	4.75	Buy	Sum of parts
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.96	4.35	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
11/25/19	CIMB	Wilmar	4.1	4.58	Add
12/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.1	4.75	Buy	Sum of parts
12/10/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.1	4.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PER17.6x FY20
12/19/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.08	4.75	Buy

Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	13.85	19	Buy	PER14x FY19
01/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	13.71	12.9	Hold
01/07/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	13.71	0	Buy
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Venture	14.44	17.48	Buy	PB2x FY19, PER14.4x FY19
02/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	15.72	12.9	Hold	PER11x FY19, Buy @ $12.40
02/12/19	CIMB	Venture	15.97	17.44	Add	PER12.56x FY20
02/25/19	CIMB	Venture	16.12	17.88	Add	PER12.56x FY20
02/25/19	Kim Eng	Venture	16.12	19.23	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
02/25/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	16.12	19	Buy
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	16.12	21.7	Buy	PER15.8x FY19
02/25/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	16.12	0	Buy
02/25/19	OCBC	Venture	16.12	20.89	Buy	PER15x
03/19/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	18	19	Buy
03/29/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	17.8	21.7	Buy
04/03/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	18.6	0	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Venture	19.29	20.89	Buy	PER15x FY19/20
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	19.29	19	Neutral
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	19.29	21.7	Buy	PER15.8x FY19
04/29/19	CIMB	Venture	17.52	17.88	Hold	PER12.5x
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Venture	17.52	19.74	Hold	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	16.97	0	Buy on weakness
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	17.4	19.01	Hold	Buy @ $17
06/11/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.7	19.74	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
06/25/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	17.3	0	Hold
06/26/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	16.46	16.3	Neutral	PER13x FY19
06/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	16.46	17.91	Hold	PER14x FY19, Buy at $15
06/26/19	CLSA	Venture	16.46	17.3	Underperform
07/05/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	16.35	0	Hold
07/15/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	14.9	18.6	Buy	PER13.7x FY20
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	14.9	17.91	Hold
07/16/19	CIMB	Venture	15	15.73	Hold	PER12.5x CY20
07/22/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.54	19.74	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
08/13/19	Kim Eng	Venture	14.76	18.88	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	14.76	16.3	Buy	PER13x FY19
08/13/19	CIMB	Venture	14.76	16.28	Add	PER12,5x
08/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	14.76	17.7	Buy	PER14x
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	14.76	18.6	Buy	PER13.7x FY20
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	14.76	0	Hold
08/14/19	DIR	Venture	15.28	17.9	Outperform
08/14/19	OCBC	Venture	15.28	18.42	Buy	PER14x
09/09/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.48	18.88	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19
09/11/19	Macquarie	Venture	15.33	17.7	Outperform	Roe-g/Coe-g,PER14x FY19
09/27/19	CIMB	Venture	15.26	16.28	Add
09/30/19	Phillip	Venture	15.27	17.68	Buy	PER14x
10/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	15.31	17.7	Buy
10/01/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	15.31	18.6	Buy
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	15.42	16.3	Buy
10/11/19	Phillip	Venture	15.17	17.68	Buy
10/21/19	CIMB	Venture	15.35	16.28	Add	PER12.5x
10/23/19	Macquarie	Venture	15.38	17	Outperform
10/29/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.29	18.85	Buy	PB2.1x FY20
11/11/19	Phillip	Venture	16.6	17.18	Accumulate	PER14x FY19
11/11/19	Kim Eng	Venture	16.6	16.91	Hold	PB1.8x FY20
11/11/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	16.6	16.3	Neutral	PER13x FY19
11/11/19	CIMB	Venture	16.6	16.88	Hold	PER12.5x
11/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	16.6	16.67	Hold	PER14x FY20
11/11/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	16.6	17.2	Hold	PER13.7x FY20
11/11/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	16.6	0	Sell
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	15.76	16.3	Neutral

Valuetronics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.66	0.87	Buy
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.675	0.82	Buy
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.69	0.9	Buy	PB1.9x FY19
02/14/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.74	1.05	Buy	ROE-g/COE-g, PB2.1x FY20
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.74	0.78	Neutral	DCF
02/14/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.74	0.73	Hold	PER8.5x CY19
02/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.71	0.87	Buy
03/19/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.69	0.78	Neutral
03/21/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.685	1.05	Buy	PB2.1x FY20
04/09/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.7	1.05	Buy
05/27/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.61	0.67	Neutral	DCF
05/31/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.625	0.61	Neutral	DCF
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.625	0.8	Buy
06/03/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.605	0.63	Hold	PER8x CY20
06/11/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.64	0.99	Buy	PB2x FY20
08/16/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.62	0.94	Buy	ROE-g/COE-g, PB1.9x FY20
08/16/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.62	0.61	Neutral	DCF
08/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.62	0.8	Buy
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.615	0.61	Neutral
10/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.615	0.8	Buy	PER11x FY20
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.725	0.81	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	Kim Eng	Valuetronics	0.725	0.98	Buy	PB2x FY20
11/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.725	0.91	Buy	PER12x
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.785	0.81	Buy

The recession constellation is aligning in the US!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-novak-2020/russias-novak-says-opec-may-consider-ending-oil-output-cuts-in-2020-idUSKBN1YV0HY

I've stated this a few times on my blog below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-wall-street-analysts-are-starting.html?showComment=1576822097373#c7821513851698794977

Let me surmise again.

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.

All these events are pointing out that March 2020 will be a turning point for the US.

Baltic dry index - 1090

Today, Tuesday, December 24 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 13 points, reaching 1090 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 805

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

UOL - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	OCBC	UOL	6.07	8.41	Buy
01/04/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	6	0	Buy
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	6.65	7.15	Hold
02/12/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	6.57	0	Buy
02/27/19	CIMB	UOL	6.77	8.45	Add	RNAV
02/27/19	OCBC	UOL	6.77	8.45	Buy	RNAV
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	6.77	0	Buy
02/28/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	6.75	7.15	Hold	RNAV (40% discount)
03/18/19	OCBC	UOL	6.45	8.45	Buy	RNAV
03/28/19	CIMB	UOL	6.78	8.45	Add
04/02/19	OCBC	UOL	7.11	8.45	Buy	RNAV
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.36	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.26	0	Buy
05/13/19	CIMB	UOL	7.26	8.45	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
05/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.26	8.5	Buy
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.08	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
06/07/19	CIMB	UOL	6.8	8.45	Add
07/15/19	OCBC	UOL	7.61	8.5	Buy
08/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.2	8.5	Buy
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.2	8.53	Buy	PB0.8x
08/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.2	0	Buy on weakness
09/10/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.47	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.91	9.25	Buy
11/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.91	0	Buy on weakness
12/03/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.79	0	Buy