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Sunday, May 3, 2026

The latest ISM PMI report showed spiking inflation! - Part 2

 





















Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 0.6 - (-2) = 2.6

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = (-1) - (-2.3) = -1.3

The new order increased (+0.6) because the US consumers were frontloading their purchases (local new orders: +2.6) due to the spiking US inflation prices (+6.3).

However, the producers regarded this frontloading phenomenon as unsustainable and reduced their production (-1.7) and employment (-2.3) instead because new export orders were declining (-2).

The frontloading purchases also caused the customers' inventories and backlog of orders to decline respectively (-1 & -3).

The high prices (84.6, +6.3) were caused by the Iran war and would continue to devastate the US economic growth and PMI if the Iran war continues for a few more months.

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