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Tuesday, July 14, 2020

China has imposed sanction against Lockheed Martin.

https://www.ft.com/content/b79821fb-eb99-4418-8cd3-e7df0c42b5fa

This is just a symbolic gesture with no real bite.  It will be a different thing if China imposes sanctions against companies dealing with Lockheed Martin.  China has to follow what the US is doing to Huawei to strike hard at US firms.

If China does that, then the suppliers have to decide to deal with Lockheed Martin or to give up the whole China market.  The choice is very obvious as Lockheed Martine is just a small customer compared to the whole China market.

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China has imposed sanctions against US officials in a tit-for-tat response.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sanctions-u-officials-including-075456201.html

This is an expected response from China.  If the US sanctions against any HK/China bank, China will also do the same.

The US is foolish to engage in such a silly ante just to score some political points at home.
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Singapore Q2 GDP growth is a lot worse than Q1.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-shrinks-over-40-000345419.html

The QoQ growth of -41% and YoY growth of -12.6% show that we're right in our projection in March 2020 because Q2 is a lot worse than Q1.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/singapore-gdp-contracts-22-yoy.html

We're not a brilliant clairvoyant but we're just a brilliant analyst.  Therefore, when we tell you something, you better sit up straight and listen.

My motto: We're not always right but we're also seldom wrong.
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Monday, July 13, 2020

China Everbright - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/16/19phillipChina Everbright0.3150.5BuyPER9x
05/29/20DBS VickersChina Everbright0.1990.49BuyPER7x
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China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/10/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.31.6Buy
08/08/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.231.6Buy
08/13/19phillipChina Aviation Oil1.181.52BuyPER10.5x FY20
08/13/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.181.5BuySum of parts
08/13/19DBS VickersChina Aviation Oil1.181.85Buy
09/02/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.151.5BuySum of parts
11/04/19DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.231.55BuySum of parts
01/21/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.281.55Buy
02/27/20CIMBChina Aviation Oil1.161.25HoldPER8.5x FY21
02/28/20DBS VickersChina Aviation Oil1.161.65BuyPER10x FY20
03/12/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil0.9651.3BuySum of parts
04/22/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.3BuySum of parts
04/23/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.25BuySum of parts, PB0.9x
05/12/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.25BuySum of parts, PER2.6x FY21 (ex-cash)
06/12/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.141.25BuyPB0.9x, PER3.5x FY21 (ex-cash)
07/06/20DMG & PartnersChina Aviation Oil1.021.25BuySum of parts
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Centurion - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/15/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.410.43NeutralDCF
10/07/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.40.43NeutralDCF
10/25/19DBS VickersCenturion0.410.52BuyDCF
11/14/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.420.43NeutralDCF
11/14/19DBS VickersCenturion0.420.52BuyDCF
12/17/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.4350.47NeutralDCF
01/08/20CIMBCenturion0.440.61AddDCF
03/02/20DMG & PartnersCenturion0.4450.49NeutralDCF
03/02/20DBS VickersCenturion0.4450.53BuyDCF
03/18/20CIMBCenturion0.390.58AddDCF
03/30/20DBS VickersCenturion0.3950.41HoldDCF
04/13/20CIMBCenturion0.3850.58Add
04/22/20DBS VickersCenturion0.380.41HoldDCF
04/29/20DMG & PartnersCenturion0.3850.41NeutralDCF
05/18/20DBS VickersCenturion0.3750.42HoldDCF
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Stock calls for 13 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/13/20OCBCA-Reit3.263.52Buy
07/13/20OCBCCapitaland2.913.99Buy
07/13/20OCBCCity Developments8.7312.01Buy
07/13/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.6550.73outperformDDM
07/13/20Kim EngFrencken0.9151.2BuyRoe-g/Coe-g, PB1.6x FY20
07/13/20OCBCMapletree North Asia0.9451.13Buy
07/13/20OCBCNetlink0.981.1Buy
07/13/20phillipSATS2.881.95SellPB1.35x
07/13/20UOB Kay HianSATS2.882.93HoldEV/Invested capital basis
07/13/20Lim & TanSATS2.880Avoid
07/13/20OCBCSingtel2.513.24Buy
07/13/20OCBCST Engineering3.353.9Buy
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We need regular vaccinations to keep covid away.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/immunity-covid-19-could-lost-163154231.html

This covid virus will change our lives now because our covid immunity is only temporary.  This understanding helps to explain why some people get reinfected and tested positive again.

The biggest winners will be those pharmaceutical companies because they can sell the vaccines periodically as their bread and butter drugs. Grrr!
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Saturday, July 11, 2020

Baltic dry index - 1810


Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
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US rig count - 958


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
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The PM-Designate Heng doesn't have a strong mandate from Singaporeans.

The oppositions have done pretty well for the 2020 GE because they've taken down 2 GRCs and 1 SMC.
What's more interesting is that the designated PM Heng has very weak support from Singaporeans.
Many SG ministers have over 60% support from Singaporeans except Heng Swee Keat (PM-Designate) and S Iswaran. who have a low 50% support.  Being the designated PM after PM Lee, this is a very bad result compared to PM Lee who has over 70% support.  This shows that many Singaporeans do not have faith in Heng.  Maybe PM Lee should reconsider his choice for the next PM.
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Singaporeans have spoken - We don't want a one-party system here!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/no-need-to-vote-indranee-rajah-into-our.html

The oppositions have garnered 2 GRCs and 1 SMC for the 2020 GE.

Thank you to all my viewers who have supported and responded to my calling not to allow a one-party political structure in SG.  We have managed to increase our opposition members to 10 now.  Cheers!
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Friday, July 10, 2020

The southern hemisphere must brace for a possible major covid outbreak from June to August 2020. Why? - Part 4

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/09/south-africa-warns-of-coronavirus-storm-as-outbreak-accelerates-across-continent

We've predicted correctly again!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for_24.html

We had stated in April 2020 that there would be a major COVID outbreak in South Africa from June to August 2020.  The COVID statistics have spiked by 24% in a week!

South Africa is moving up the list now.
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1/3 (32%) of Americans couldn't pay their housing payments!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8503795/One-American-families-missed-July-housing-payments-amid-coronavirus-crisis.html

We told you before that the US employment data was fudged by the US government.  If the US employment data was true, there wouldn't be so many Americans (32%) who couldn't pay their housing payments.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-latest-us-unemployment-data-is.html
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US CMBS is in a precarious situation now! - Part 3

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/coronavirus-sparks-largest-ever-rate-jump-in-us-cmbs-delinquencies-06-07-2020

We warned about US CMBS in May 2020 when we saw that the transaction volume dropped significantly.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now_22.html

The CMBS delinquencies have spiked tremendously now!

When we tell you something, you better listen.  Another BIG financial crisis is brewing right now!
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Thursday, July 9, 2020

Centurion - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/15/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.410.43NeutralDCF
10/07/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.40.43NeutralDCF
10/25/19DBS VickersCenturion0.410.52BuyDCF
11/14/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.420.43NeutralDCF
11/14/19DBS VickersCenturion0.420.52BuyDCF
12/17/19DMG & PartnersCenturion0.4350.47NeutralDCF
01/08/20CIMBCenturion0.440.61AddDCF
03/02/20DMG & PartnersCenturion0.4450.49NeutralDCF
03/02/20DBS VickersCenturion0.4450.53BuyDCF
03/18/20CIMBCenturion0.390.58AddDCF
03/30/20DBS VickersCenturion0.3950.41HoldDCF
04/13/20CIMBCenturion0.3850.58Add
04/22/20DBS VickersCenturion0.380.41HoldDCF
04/29/20DMG & PartnersCenturion0.3850.41NeutralDCF
05/18/20DBS VickersCenturion0.3750.42HoldDCF
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CEI - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/13/19CIMBCEI0.9850.9HoldPER10x FY20
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CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.661.77Buy
07/15/19UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality1.652.06Buy
07/31/19OCBCCDL Hospitality1.661.56Hold
07/31/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.661.79BuyDDM
07/31/19CIMBCDL Hospitality1.661.92Add
07/31/19DBS VickersCDL Hospitality1.661.8BuyDCF
08/27/19UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality1.582.06Buy
09/11/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.631.79Buy
09/19/19CIMBCDL Hospitality1.621.92Add
09/19/19Kim EngCDL Hospitality1.621.8Buy
10/01/19UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality1.642.06Buy
10/02/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.631.79Buy
10/09/19DBS VickersCDL Hospitality1.641.8Buy
10/31/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.631.78BuyDDM
10/31/19Kim EngCDL Hospitality1.631.8BuyDDM
10/31/19UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality1.632.05Buy
11/04/19CIMBCDL Hospitality1.641.83Add
11/04/19OCBCCDL Hospitality1.641.69Buy
11/12/19UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality1.582.05BuyDDM
11/21/19Kim EngCDL Hospitality1.591.8Buy
11/22/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.591.78BuyDDM
11/25/19DBS VickersCDL Hospitality1.581.8Buy
11/26/19Kim EngCDL Hospitality1.61.8Buy
12/10/19DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.631.78Buy
01/08/20DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.631.78Buy
01/14/20DBS VickersCDL Hospitality1.641.8Buy
01/31/20DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.561.62NeutralDDM
01/31/20DBS VickersCDL Hospitality1.561.75BuyDCF
02/03/20OCBCCDL Hospitality1.561.62Hold
02/03/20Kim EngCDL Hospitality1.561.75Buy
02/03/20UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality1.561.89Buy
02/04/20DBS VickersCDL Hospitality1.561.75Buy
02/13/20CIMBCDL Hospitality1.511.5HoldPB1x
02/19/20OCBCCDL Hospitality1.51.62Buy
03/16/20OCBCCDL Hospitality1.121.09Hold
04/20/20DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality0.9551.03NeutralDDM
04/21/20DBS VickersCDL Hospitality0.951.3BuyDCF
04/27/20UOB Kay HianCDL Hospitality0.8951.32BuyDDM
06/01/20DBS VickersCDL Hospitality0.951.3Buy
06/09/20CIMBCDL Hospitality1.191.31Add
06/23/20DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality1.091.03Neutral
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Stock calls for 9 July 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/09/20DMG & PartnersA-Reit3.33NeutralDDM
07/09/20DBS VickersARA Logistics0.5950.7Buy
07/09/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.11.35Buy
07/09/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.992.25Buy
07/09/20CIMBRiverstone3.33.9Add
07/09/20AmfrasersSilverlake0.250.3outperform
07/09/20DBS VickersSoilbuild Reit0.410.5Buy
07/09/20Lim & TanTiong Woon0.3750Accumlate
07/09/20CIMBUG Healthcare1.82.1Add
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Trump's aides are desperate in fighting for their jobs. - Part 2

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-currency-traders-dont-believe-trump-administration-will-pursue-a-proposal-to-break-hong-kong-dollar-peg-2020-07-08?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Most analysts agree with our opinion below.  We've been proven right again!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/trumps-aides-are-desperate-in-fighting.html

The bottom line is there is nothing the US government can do to de-peg the US-HK peg because only the HK government can do it.
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