Stock calls for 5 July 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/05/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.04	1.2	Buy	DCF
07/05/18	Kim Eng	M1	1.58	1.63	Hold
07/05/18	Kim Eng	Mapletree Industrial	1.96	2.25	Buy	DDM
07/05/18	CIMB	SPH	2.59	2.85	Add	Sum of parts
07/05/18	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.25	3.9	Buy
07/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	17.5	18.2	Hold	PER14x FY18, Buy @ $14

Neo Group - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.62	0.8	Buy
02/10/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.575	0.61	Neutral	DCF
03/29/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.585	0.61	Neutral	DCF
05/26/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.57	0.62	Neutral
08/10/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.68	0.64	Neutral	PER21x FY18
11/14/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.66	0.64	Neutral	PER21x FY18
02/09/18	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.67	0.67	Neutral

Nam Lee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/06/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.37	0.52	Buy	DCF
05/17/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.355	0.52	Buy	DCF, PER12.4x FY17
08/16/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.37	0.51	Buy	DCF, PER11.5x FY17
11/29/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.395	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER11.1x FY18, PB0.96x FY18
02/12/18	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.38	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER11.1x FY18, PB0.96x FY18
05/07/18	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.37	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER11.9x FY18, PB0.97x FY18

Stock calls for 4 July 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.53	1.95	Buy
07/04/18	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.3	2.59	Buy	DCF & PER18x FY18/19
07/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.425	0.61	Buy
07/04/18	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.37	0.46	Buy	DCF
07/04/18	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.06	1.18	Add	PER22.2x FY19
07/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.29	2	Buy
07/04/18	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.07	3.59	Buy	Sum of parts
07/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	Wing Tai	1.99	2.78	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)

China is issuing a travel alert to the USA.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-warns-citizens-against-us-150140777.html

Things are definitely not looking good between US & China.

China has started to issue a travel alert to the USA now.  This will definitely cause a drop in the Chinese tourism in the USA.

The US-China trade war is spreading to more industries.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-chip-sales-banned-china-161130942.html

The semiconductor industry is involved in the trade war now.  Micron Tech went belly up under the helm of Ho Ching and was sold off at a huge loss before Ho Ching went to become Chartered Semiconductor CEO.  Chartered Semiconductor also faced the same fate under Ho Ching.

Thereafter, Micron Tech was brought alive under the new management.  However, it is facing a dire situation now because of the trade war as China's market constitutes 50% of its sales.  Without China, Micron Tech will go belly up again.

The US is alienating itself in WTO.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-40-countries-object-wto-182120367.html

More than 40 countries are against US car tariffs and will take retaliatory actions which will put about US$300b of US goods in jeopardy.

US allies are slowly turning into foes in the trade war.

SharebikeSG shuts down in Singapore after oBike.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/sharebikesg-exits-spore-3rd-bike-sharing-operator-shut-past-month

This is not surprising as this business model needs high riding volume to break even.  Please read our previous postings regarding the bike sharing model.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/another-bike-sharing-company-obike-has.html

Nam Cheong - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/17	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.055	0.04	Fully Valued	PB0.2x
07/20/17	Lim & Tan	Nam Cheong	0.021	0	Avoid

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/04/17	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.118	0.17	Buy	DCF, PER13.8x FY18
11/14/17	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.101	0.17	Buy	DCF
01/24/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.098	0.17	Buy
02/09/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.091	0.17	Buy	DCF
03/02/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.091	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER15x FY18
04/09/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.099	0.15	Buy	DCF
05/02/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.1	0.15	Buy	DCF
06/05/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.087	0.14	Buy	DCF

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.49	0.56	Buy
04/07/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.5	0.6	Add	Sum of parts, PER22.6x FY18
04/13/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.5	0.63	Buy	Sum of parts
05/23/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.575	0.63	Buy	Sum of parts
05/24/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.585	0.7	Buy	Sum of parts
05/25/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.585	0.65	Add	Sum of parts
06/14/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.62	0.72	Add	Sum of parts
06/14/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.62	0.7	Buy
07/20/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.59	0.75	Buy	Sum of parts
07/25/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.525	0.58	Hold	Sum of parts
08/14/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.465	0.6	Buy	Sum of parts
08/17/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.475	0.58	Add	Sum of parts
11/02/17	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.58	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
11/06/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.55	0.76	Add	Sum of parts
12/20/17	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.52	0.76	Add
01/05/18	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.545	0.73	Buy
02/07/18	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.49	0.76	Add
02/08/18	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.495	0.75	Buy	Sum of parts
03/05/18	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.47	0.76	Add
03/15/18	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.505	0.74	Add	Sum of parts
04/06/18	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.49	0.74	Add
04/23/18	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.495	0.56	Buy
05/30/18	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.495	0.7	Buy	Sum of parts
06/05/18	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.485	0.72	Add	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 3 July 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.61	3.05	Buy
07/03/18	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.785	1.35	Buy
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.635	0.88	Buy	DCF, PER13.7x FY19
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.63	2.11	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Capitaland	3.14	4.3	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.02	2.13	Hold
07/03/18	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.51	1.64	Buy
07/03/18	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.5	1.8	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	10.88	14.03	Buy
07/03/18	DMG & Partners	City Developments	10.88	15	Buy
07/03/18	Amfrasers	CNMC	0.27	0.38	Buy	PER10x FY19
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.26	2.43	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.38	30.15	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	DISA	0.009	0.013	Buy	DCF
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.55	2	Buy	DCF
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.21	1.38	Buy
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.21	1.49	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.305	0.26	Sell
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Hongkong Land	7.13	8.55	Not Rated
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Hutchison Port	0.28	0.34	Not Rated
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Jardine C&C	30.77	44.13	Not Rated
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Jardine Matheson	63.2	65.72	Not Rated
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Jardine Strategic	36.65	42.67	Not Rated
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	7.01	9	Buy
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	7.01	10.2	Buy
07/03/18	DMG & Partners	M1	1.59	1.63	Hold	DCF
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.51	14.28	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.91	5.7	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.72	3.6	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SGX	7.14	8.14	Not Rated
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	10.42	11.9	Hold
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.05	4.22	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.59	2.46	Hold
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.27	4.1	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.64	1.98	Hold
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.7	0.99	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	17.66	25	Buy
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.04	3.9	Buy
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.04	3.5	Buy	DCF
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	0.885	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.25x
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.885	1.3	Buy

MIT - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/03/17	Kim Eng	MIT	0.245	0.32	Not Rated	PB1.6x
11/22/17	Lim & Tan	MIT	0.245	0.32	Buy	PER8x FY18
01/03/18	Lim & Tan	MIT	0.26	0	Buy

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/18	Amfrasers	Mindchamps	0.74	0.86	Buy	DCF, PER23.2x FY18
04/23/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.815	0.95	Buy	EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
04/27/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.815	1	Buy	EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
05/09/18	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.795	1	Buy	EV/Ebitda19x & DCF
05/15/18	Amfrasers	Mindchamps	0.78	0.86	Buy	PER23.2x FY18

Midas - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Code	Company	Last	Target	Call	Percent	Valuation
03/01/17	OCBC	5EN	Midas	0.26	0.255	Hold	-1.92	PB0.6x FY17
03/02/17	DBS Vickers	5EN	Midas	0.245	0.36	Buy	46.94
04/10/17	DBS Vickers	5EN	Midas	0.225	0.36	Buy	60.00
04/11/17	OCBC	5EN	Midas	0.23	0.255	Hold	10.87
05/18/17	OCBC	5EN	Midas	0.225	0.245	Hold	8.89	PB0.6x FY17
05/23/17	DBS Vickers	5EN	Midas	0.225	0.36	Buy	60.00
08/16/17	OCBC	5EN	Midas	0.215	0.225	Hold	4.65	PB0.5x FY17
08/16/17	DBS Vickers	5EN	Midas	0.215	0.36	Buy	67.44	PB0.8x
11/14/17	OCBC	5EN	Midas	0.215	0.225	Hold	4.65

Stock calls for 2 July 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/02/18	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.66	1.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB0.97x
07/02/18	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.66	1.9	Add	DDM
07/02/18	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.66	1.84	Hold
07/02/18	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.66	2.12	Buy
07/02/18	CIMB	China Sunsine	1.55	1.87	Add	PER9.8x CY19
07/02/18	phillip	DBS	26.61	32.7	Accumulate
07/02/18	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.38	1.53	Buy
07/02/18	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.74	0.87	Buy	DCF
07/02/18	phillip	OCBC	11.64	14.9	Accumulate
07/02/18	Kim Eng	Singapore Post	1.26	1.5	Buy	DCF
07/02/18	phillip	UOB	26.76	31.7	Accumulate

Why did Mad Dog Mattis become so docile in China?

General Mattis is not called Mad Dog Mattis for no reason.  He was a very aggressive military man but he became very docile during his recent visit to China.

Why? What happened to him?

I would attribute his recent docile behaviour in China to a recent China missile exercise video which was released by China prior to his arrival.  As a military veteran, he knew and understood what he was watching.

This missile video was released by China prior to his arrival and I believed this video shocked him.

DF-10A has an effective range of 1500km and this can keep US aircraft carriers at bay which will render any encroachment on China ineffective.  A DF-10A can destroy a building completely in the video.  Moreover, DF-10A can carry a 500kg nuclear warhead.  DF-16 has an even longer range and can push any US carrier further away from China coastlines.

Canada is the latest country to hit back at Trump.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/canada-hits-back-on-us-tariffs--mnuchin-denies-trump-wants-to-quit-wto-10485368

Trump is digging his own grave now.

Trump will be the first to blink in this trade was as he has to deal with a November election.

We just need to prolong the trade war and Trump will cave in.

Another bike sharing company, obike, has folded in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/obike-closure-singapore-bike-sharing-operator-bad-business-idea-10482320

We had stated in 2017 that this bike sharing business concept was flawed but VCs continued to invest in such businesses.

This shows that VCs do not know how to evaluate businesses at all as there are precursory signs of such businesses will flop.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/bike-sharing-business-concept-is-not.html

Baltic dry index - 1385

Today, Friday, June 29 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 56 points, reaching 1385 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean