SGX - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.24	7.6	Neutral
01/11/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.24	7.3	Neutral
01/11/17	Deutsche	SGX	7.24	7	Hold
01/16/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.39	8.3	Buy	DDM
01/16/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.39	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
01/16/17	UBS	SGX	7.39	8	Buy
01/20/17	CIMB	SGX	7.48	7.23	Hold	DDM
01/20/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.48	0	Buy
01/20/17	OCBC	SGX	7.48	7.64	Hold	PER22x, Buy @ $7.20 or lower
02/09/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.55	7.6	Neutral
02/14/17	Macquarie	SGX	7.62	8.25	Outperform
03/09/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.57	7.6	Neutral
03/09/17	phillip	SGX	7.57	7.75	Accumulate
03/14/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.58	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
03/17/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.63	8.3	Buy
03/28/17	CIMB	SGX	7.56	8.09	Add	PER24x FY18
03/28/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.56	8.5	Overweight	Up from $7.90
03/28/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.56	7.95	Neutral
04/10/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.66	7.6	Neutral
04/12/17	CIMB	SGX	7.58	8.09	Add	PER24x FY18
04/12/17	UBS	SGX	7.58	8.4	Buy
04/21/17	CIMB	SGX	7.45	8.16	Add	PER24x FY18
04/21/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.45	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
04/21/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.45	0	Buy
04/21/17	Macquarie	SGX	7.45	7.5	Neutral	DDM, PER22.3x
04/21/17	OCBC	SGX	7.45	7.53	Hold	Buy @ $7.1 or lower
04/21/17	phillip	SGX	7.45	7.45	Neutral	PER23.9x
04/21/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.45	7.8	Neutral
05/08/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.43	7.6	Neutral
05/24/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.41	9.1	Buy	PER25x FY18
05/24/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.41	7.9	Neutral
06/20/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.34	9	Buy	PER24x FY18
06/20/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.34	0	Buy
07/28/17	CIMB	SGX	7.54	8.04	Add	PER24x FY18
07/28/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.54	7.6	Neutral
07/28/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.54	9	Buy	PER24x FY18
07/28/17	OCBC	SGX	7.54	7.83	Hold	PER23x
07/28/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.54	8.4	Overweight
07/31/17	phillip	SGX	7.59	7.63	Accumulate	PER23.9x
07/31/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.59	8.2	Buy	PER24x FY18
09/08/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.46	7.6	Neutral
09/18/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.42	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
09/27/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.44	8.5	Buy
10/11/17	Credit Suisse	SGX	7.64	7.6	Neutral
10/11/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.64	8.3	Overweight
10/17/17	phillip	SGX	7.66	8.39	Accumulate	PER23.9x
10/19/17	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.63	0	Buy
10/26/17	CIMB	SGX	7.57	8.21	Add	PER24x FY19
10/26/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.57	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
10/26/17	OCBC	SGX	7.57	7.87	Hold
10/26/17	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.57	8.4	Buy	DDM, PER24x FY18
10/27/17	phillip	SGX	7.61	8.31	Accumulate	PER23.9x
11/21/17	phillip	SGX	7.52	8.31	Accumulate	PER23.9x
11/21/17	JP Morgan	SGX	7.52	8.4	Overweight
11/21/17	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.52	8.6	Buy
12/04/17	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.55	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
12/20/17	CIMB	SGX	7.43	8.21	Add
12/20/17	Kim Eng	SGX	7.43	8.3	Buy
01/22/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.98	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
01/22/18	Kim Eng	SGX	7.98	8.82	Buy	PER23x FY19
01/22/18	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.98	8.9	Buy	DDM, PER21x FY19
01/22/18	OCBC	SGX	7.98	8.16	Hold	PER24x FY18
01/22/18	CIMB	SGX	7.98	8.5	Add	PER24x FY19
01/22/18	phillip	SGX	7.98	9	Accumulate	DCF
01/22/18	UBS	SGX	7.98	8.7	Buy
02/07/18	CIMB	SGX	7.88	8.5	Add	PER24x FY19
02/07/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.88	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
02/07/18	OCBC	SGX	7.88	8.16	Hold
02/07/18	Kim Eng	SGX	7.88	8.82	Buy	PER23x FY19
02/07/18	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.88	8.9	Buy	DDM, PER21x FY19
02/13/18	JP Morgan	SGX	7.31	9	Overweight
02/13/18	Jefferies	SGX	7.31	8	Buy
02/13/18	UBS	SGX	7.31	8.7	Buy
02/13/18	CIMB	SGX	7.31	7.85	Hold	PER24x FY19
02/13/18	Goldman Sachs	SGX	7.31	6.6	Sell
02/14/18	phillip	SGX	7.3	8.89	Buy	DCF
02/19/18	Jefferies	SGX	7.37	8	Buy
02/20/18	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.71	8.9	Buy	DDM, PER21x FY19
03/08/18	Kim Eng	SGX	7.44	8.73	Buy	PER23x FY19
03/13/18	Amfrasers	SGX	7.58	8.14	Buy
04/23/18	phillip	SGX	7.56	9.2	Buy	DCF
04/23/18	CIMB	SGX	7.56	8.2	Add	PER24x FY19
04/23/18	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.56	0	Buy
04/23/18	OCBC	SGX	7.56	8.22	Buy
04/23/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.56	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
05/23/18	Lim & Tan	SGX	7.48	0	Buy on weakness
06/01/18	OCBC	SGX	7.24	7.89	Buy	PER23x
06/22/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.25	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SGX	7.14	8.14	Not Rated
07/18/18	Macquarie	SGX	7.45	7.7	Neutral
07/25/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.5	9	Buy	PER24x FY19

Stock calls for 25 July 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/25/18	OCBC	ART	1.13	1	Sell
07/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.13	1.18	Hold	DDM
07/25/18	CIMB	ART	1.13	1.16	Hold	DDM
07/25/18	DBS Vickers	ART	1.13	1.25	Buy	DCF
07/25/18	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.55	Buy	DDM
07/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.32	Buy	DDM
07/25/18	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.49	Buy
07/25/18	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.41	Add	DDM
07/25/18	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	0	Hold
07/25/18	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.27	0.28	Hold	DCF
07/25/18	OCBC	Mapletree Industrial	2.02	2.06	Hold
07/25/18	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.02	2.09	Neutral	DDM, PB1.42x FY19
07/25/18	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.29	1.39	Add	DDM
07/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.29	1.36	Hold
07/25/18	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.29	1.53	Buy
07/25/18	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.5	9	Buy	PER24x FY19
07/25/18	OCBC	Suntec Reit	1.89	1.84	Hold
07/25/18	DBS Vickers	Thai Beverage	0.74	0.94	Buy	Sum of parts

Danger is lurking for Hong Kong stock market! - Part 2

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

The HKD is still under tremendous stress as it can be seen from the statistics above which show that the HKD is still near the HKMA intervention rate of HKD$7.85.  This stress is prompting the HKMA to raise the interest rate to reduce the Hibor-Libor spread.  We can also detect the stress in the HSI because it has been trending down from more than 32,000 to around 29,000 as the fear of collateral damages from the higher interest rate sets in.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/03/danger-is-lurking-for-hong-kong-stock.html

The Lee family has gay genes!

Lee Huan Wu is the second son of Lee Hsien Yang and he is a gay.

From my reliable sources, I know that he is not the only one in the Lee family.

Serial System - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/23/17	NRA	Serial System	0.178	0.24	Overweight	PER11.3x FY17
05/22/18	NRA	Serial System	0.1666	0.24	Overweight	DCF

Sembcorp Marine - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/05/17	Deutsche	Sembcorp Marine	1.42	1.9	Buy	PB1.5x FY17
01/05/17	Morgan Stanley	Sembcorp Marine	1.42	1	Underweight
01/06/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.455	1.7	Add	PB1.3x CY17
01/13/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.51	1.55	Hold	PB1.3x FY17
01/16/17	DIR	Sembcorp Marine	1.515	0.94	Sell	PB0.9x FY16/17
01/16/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.515	1.61	Hold	PB1.3x FY17, Buy @ $1.45
01/17/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.49	1.43	Hold
01/25/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.545	1.2	Neutral
02/07/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.475	1.7	Add	PB1.3x FY17
02/17/17	CLSA	Sembcorp Marine	1.545	2	Buy
02/23/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.535	1.88	Add	PB1.5x
02/23/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.535	1.78	Buy	PB1.5x FY17
02/23/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.535	1.46	Neutral	PER16x FY17
02/23/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.535	0	Buy
02/23/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.535	1.76	Buy	PB1.4x FY17
02/23/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.535	1.61	Hold	PB1.2x, FY17, Buy @ $1.45
02/24/17	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.815	1.58	Reduce	PER25.4x
02/28/17	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	1.63	Hold
03/01/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.78	2.4	Outperform
03/06/17	Deutsche	Sembcorp Marine	2.03	2.1	Buy
03/06/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	2.03	1.61	Hold	PB1.2x FY17
03/14/17	DIR	Sembcorp Marine	1.86	1.22	Sell	PB1x FY17
04/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.92	1.61	Hold	PB1.3x FY17, Buy @ $1.45
04/10/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.875	2.4	Outperform
04/28/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	1.88	Add	PB1.5x CY17
04/28/17	DIR	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	1.22	Sell	PB1x FY17
04/28/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	0	Hold
04/28/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	2.01	Buy	PB1.6x FY17
04/28/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	1.43	Sell	PB1.1x FY17
04/28/17	UBS	Sembcorp Marine	1.73	1.75	Neutral
05/02/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.63	1.78	Buy	PB1.5x FY17
05/02/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.63	1.65	Neutral	PB1.3x
05/02/17	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.63	1.58	Neutral	PER23.9x
06/06/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.665	2.4	Outperform
06/09/17	Deutsche	Sembcorp Marine	1.64	2.1	Buy	PB1.7x FY17
06/12/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.635	2.01	Buy
06/20/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.595	1.43	Sell	PB1.1x FY17
07/11/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.68	1.88	Add	PB1.5x FY17
07/18/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.65	2.4	Outperform
07/21/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	2.3	Buy	PB1.8x FY17
07/28/17	DIR	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	1.22	Sell	PB1x FY17/18
07/28/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	1.8	Hold	PB1.4x FY18, Buy @ $1.60
07/28/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	1.98	Buy	PB1.6x FY17
07/28/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	1.87	Add	PB1.5x FY17
07/28/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	0	Hold
07/28/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.74	1.65	Neutral	PB1.3x FY17
07/31/17	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.695	1.55	Reduce	PER28.5x
07/31/17	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.695	2.05	Buy	PB1.8x FY17
08/01/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.685	2.4	Outperform	PER43.4x FY17, PB1.4x
08/25/17	Morgan Stanley	Sembcorp Marine	1.605	1.05	Underweight
09/12/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.575	1.87	Add	PB1.5x FY17
09/12/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.575	1.65	Neutral	PB1.3x FY17
09/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.59	1.8	Hold
09/19/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.63	1.98	Buy
09/19/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.63	0	Buy
09/19/17	UBS	Sembcorp Marine	1.63	1.67	Neutral
09/20/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	2.3	Buy	PB1.8x FY17
09/27/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.68	2.4	Outperform
10/02/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.745	1.77	Hold	PB1.3x, Buy @ $1.60
10/05/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.745	1.87	Add	PB1.5x FY17
10/09/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	2.51	Add	PB2x
10/09/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	1.9	Buy	PB1.5x FY18
10/09/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	1.98	Buy
10/09/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	2.3	Buy
10/09/17	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	1.82	Neutral	PER33.6x FY18
10/09/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	0	Buy
10/09/17	UBS	Sembcorp Marine	1.735	1.82	Neutral
10/10/17	DIR	Sembcorp Marine	1.815	1.22	Sell	PB1x FY17/18
10/10/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.815	1.65	Neutral
10/24/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.86	2.4	Outperform
10/24/17	Deutsche	Sembcorp Marine	1.86	2.6	Buy
11/01/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.93	2.49	Add	PB2x FY18
11/01/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.93	2.4	Outperform
11/01/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.93	2.26	Buy	PB1.8x
11/01/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.93	2.1	Buy
11/01/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.93	0	Buy
11/02/17	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	2.01	1.91	Neutral	PER38.2x FY18
11/02/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.01	2.3	Buy	PB1.8x FY17
11/02/17	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	2.01	2.05	Hold
11/03/17	Morgan Stanley	Sembcorp Marine	2.01	1.18	Underweight	PB1x
11/03/17	UBS	Sembcorp Marine	2.01	1.85	Neutral
12/04/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.87	2.1	Buy	PB1.6x FY19
12/04/17	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.87	2.05	Hold
12/20/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.93	2.49	Add	PB2x FY18
12/26/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.94	1.74	Sell	PB1.8x
12/27/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.87	0	Hold	Bribery alert!
12/27/17	Deutsche	Sembcorp Marine	1.87	2.4	Buy	PB1.8x
01/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.84	2.1	Buy
01/02/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.84	2.49	Add	PB2x FY18
01/03/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.87	1.78	Hold	PB1.85x
01/05/18	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.83	2.05	Hold
01/22/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.3	2.37	Hold	PB2x FY18
01/23/18	UBS	Sembcorp Marine	2.39	3.06	Buy
01/23/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.39	3.1	Buy	PB2.4x FY18
02/02/18	Deutsche	Sembcorp Marine	2.57	2.9	Buy
02/02/18	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	2.57	3	Outperform
02/07/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.71	2.49	Neutral	Buy @ $2
02/13/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.37	3.1	Buy
02/22/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.63	2.43	Hold
02/22/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	2.63	1.9	Hold	PB1.6x FY19, Buy @ $1.80
02/22/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.63	2.9	Buy	PB2.4x FY18
02/22/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.63	3.01	Add	PB2.5x FY18
02/26/18	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	1.91	Reduce	PER43.4x FY18
02/27/18	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	2.18	2.06	Hold
03/05/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.02	3.01	Add	PB2.5x FY18
03/05/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.02	2.07	Hold	PB1.7x FY18/19
03/06/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.9	2.9	Buy	PB2.4x FY18
03/26/18	Morgan Stanley	Sembcorp Marine	2.09	2.45	Overweight	PB2.2x FY18, Up from $1.48 ({PB1.2x)
03/28/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	2.21	2.78	Buy
04/03/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.22	2.9	Buy
04/06/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.17	3.01	Add	PB2.5x FY18
04/11/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	2.07	Hold
04/23/18	Macquarie	Sembcorp Marine	2.32	1.8	Underperform	PB1.5x
04/26/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	2.52	Add	PB
04/26/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	2.05	Hold	PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.90
04/26/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	2.1	Hold	PB1.75x FY18/19
04/26/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	2.52	Add	PB2.2x CY18
04/26/18	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	2.23	0	Hold
04/27/18	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	2.11	1.85	Reduce	PER51.4x
04/27/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.11	2.9	Buy	PB2.4x FY18
05/08/18	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	2.1	2.64	Buy	PB2.4x FY18
05/08/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	2.1	2.1	Hold
05/22/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	2.27	2.52	Add	PB2.2x CY18
06/05/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	2.11	2.9	Buy
06/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.96	2.05	Hold
07/11/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.97	2.52	Add	PB2.2x CY18
07/13/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.95	2.9	Buy
07/23/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.96	1.83	Hold	PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.73
07/23/18	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Marine	1.96	2.4	Outperform
07/23/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.96	2.1	Hold
07/23/18	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.96	1.78	Reduce	PB1.6x FY19
07/24/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.83	2.5	Buy
07/24/18	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.83	0	Hold

Stock calls for 24 July 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/24/18	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.25	1.62	Buy
07/24/18	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	7.2	8.57	Buy
07/24/18	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.275	0.36	Buy
07/24/18	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.28	1.34	Buy
07/24/18	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1.1	1.28	Buy	DCF, PER34.8x FY18
07/24/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.83	2.5	Buy
07/24/18	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.83	0	Hold
07/24/18	Jefferies	Wing Tai	2.11	2.4	Buy

The USA is getting antsy because it is losing the trade war now.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2155890/xi-jinping-doesnt-intend-follow-through-trade-war-talks-says-top-donald

China Xi Jinping has stopped all trade negotiations with the USA and this is causing the USA to get very antsy as the USA will face an arduous November election this year.

China knows that Trump will lose the November election if this trade war continues or escalates.  The USA doesn't have the high saving rates and political will to win this trade war and China capitalizes on these weaknesses to win the trade war.

The USA is trying very hard to get China back into the trade negotiation but China is playing it cool by ignoring the USA.

The analysts and academia who said that China would bow to the USA or lose in this trade war just didn't understand the whole situation well enough and made the wrong judgement call.  We need to look at the situation from a holistic viewpoint rather than a singularity point (trade figures) to make an accurate assessment.

If we just look at trade figures between US & China per se, I will agree that China will lose based on this simplicity of argument but the real situation is more complex than the trade figures.

In any analysis, there are qualitative and quantitive assessments.  However, many analysts and researchers relied more on qualitative assessment and erred in their judgement call.

Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.85	0	Buy
01/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.85	3.2	Buy
01/05/17	Deutsche	Sembcorp Industries	2.93	3.45	Buy	Sum of parts (15% discount)
01/11/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.06	3.36	Buy	Sum of parts (5% discount)
01/25/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.27	2.7	Neutral
02/03/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.18	3.36	Buy
02/24/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.36	3.51	Hold	Sum of parts, PB0.6x CY17
02/24/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	3.36	4.17	Buy	Sum of parts
02/24/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.36	3.69	Buy
02/24/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.36	3.95	Buy	Sum of parts
02/27/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.27	3.8	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PB1.1x, PER17.2X FY17
02/27/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	3.27	0	Buy
03/01/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.2	3.6	Neutral
03/02/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.27	3.95	Buy
03/24/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.13	3.78	Buy	Sum of parts
04/04/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.2	3.78	Buy	PER9.8x FY18
04/07/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.15	3.6	Neutral
04/10/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	3.15	0	Buy
04/11/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.14	3.51	Hold	Sum of parts
05/04/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3	3.51	Add	Sum of parts
05/04/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3	3.6	Neutral
05/04/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3	3.8	Buy	RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
05/04/17	DIR	Sembcorp Industries	3	2.67	Underperform	Sum of parts
05/04/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	3	0	Hold
05/04/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3	3.48	Buy
05/04/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3	3.66	Buy	Sum of parts
05/05/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	3.15	3.2	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/11/17	DIR	Sembcorp Industries	3.14	3.14	Hold
05/29/17	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	3.15	3.5	Accumulate	Sum of parts (10% discount)
06/02/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.19	3.48	Buy
06/06/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.16	3.6	Neutral	Sum of parts
06/20/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.1	3.66	Buy
07/12/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.13	3.48	Buy
07/13/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.09	3.66	Buy	Sum of parts
07/18/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.15	3.6	Neutral
07/21/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	4.1	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x FY17
07/24/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.29	3.52	Add	Sum of parts
08/01/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.23	3.6	Neutral	PER13.9x FY17, PB0.8x
08/04/17	DIR	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	3.14	Hold	Probability weighted
08/04/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	3.57	Buy	Sum of parts
08/04/17	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	3.2	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/04/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	3.43	Hold
08/04/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	3.47	Add	Sum of parts
08/04/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	4	Buy	RNAV (10% discount), PB1.1x
08/07/17	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	3.18	3.5	Accumulate	Sum of parts
08/07/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	3.18	0	Hold
08/23/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.99	3.43	Buy
08/25/17	Morgan Stanley	Sembcorp Industries	3.03	2.39	Underweight
09/04/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.98	3.47	Add	Sum of parts
09/04/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.98	3.59	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.1x FY18
09/05/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.93	0	Buy
09/20/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.96	4	Buy	RNAV (10% discount), PB1.1x
09/27/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	2.95	3.6	Neutral
10/02/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.96	3.57	Buy	Sum of parts
10/09/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.02	4	Buy
10/24/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	3.6	Neutral
11/03/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.38	3.87	Add	Sum of parts, PER8.1x FY18, PB0.59x FY17
11/03/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.38	3.87	Buy	Sum of parts
11/03/17	Credit Suisse	Sembcorp Industries	3.38	3.6	Neutral
11/03/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.38	3.59	Hold
11/03/17	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	3.38	0	Buy
11/06/17	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	3.3	3.7	Accumulate	Sum of parts (10% discount)
11/06/17	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.3	4.2	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x
11/21/17	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.05	3.59	Buy
12/12/17	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.04	3.87	Buy	Sum of parts
12/20/17	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.02	3.87	Add
01/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.03	3.87	Buy
01/23/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.38	4.5	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PB1.1x
02/05/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.57	3.95	Buy	Sum of parts
02/13/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.21	4.5	Buy
02/19/18	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	3.22	0	Buy
02/20/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.3	3.87	Buy
02/21/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.28	3.87	Add	Sum of parts
02/26/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	3.84	Buy
02/26/18	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	3.86	Accumulate	Sum of parts
02/26/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	3.28	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.90
02/26/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	4.13	Add	Sum of parts, PER8x FY18, PB0.63x FY18
02/27/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.2	4.4	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PB1.1x
03/05/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.12	3.59	Buy
03/07/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.08	4.4	Buy	RNAV (10% discount), PB1.1x
03/26/18	Morgan Stanley	Sembcorp Industries	3.04	2.77	Underweight	Sum of parts, Up from $2.39
04/03/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.11	4.4	Buy
04/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.06	3.28	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $3
04/12/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.11	4.13	Add	Sum of parts
04/23/18	Macquarie	Sembcorp Industries	3.24	3.6	Outperform
05/04/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.06	3.59	Buy
05/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	3.06	3.6	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.90
05/04/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	3.06	3.49	Add	Sum of parts
05/07/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	3.04	4.4	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PB1.1x
05/09/18	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	3.06	3.83	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount)
06/04/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.93	3.49	Add
06/04/18	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.93	4.5	Buy
06/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.76	3.6	Hold	PER8.5x FY19
06/25/18	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.76	0	Accumulate
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.72	3.6	Buy
07/11/18	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.67	3.49	Add