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Tuesday, July 24, 2018

The USA is getting antsy because it is losing the trade war now.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2155890/xi-jinping-doesnt-intend-follow-through-trade-war-talks-says-top-donald

China Xi Jinping has stopped all trade negotiations with the USA and this is causing the USA to get very antsy as the USA will face an arduous November election this year.

China knows that Trump will lose the November election if this trade war continues or escalates.  The USA doesn't have the high saving rates and political will to win this trade war and China capitalizes on these weaknesses to win the trade war.

The USA is trying very hard to get China back into the trade negotiation but China is playing it cool by ignoring the USA.

The analysts and academia who said that China would bow to the USA or lose in this trade war just didn't understand the whole situation well enough and made the wrong judgement call.  We need to look at the situation from a holistic viewpoint rather than a singularity point (trade figures) to make an accurate assessment.

If we just look at trade figures between US & China per se, I will agree that China will lose based on this simplicity of argument but the real situation is more complex than the trade figures.

In any analysis, there are qualitative and quantitive assessments.  However, many analysts and researchers relied more on qualitative assessment and erred in their judgement call.

1 comment:

Eric Ho said...

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/trump-is-losing-us-china-trade-war.html