Singapore O&G - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/20/18	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.385	0.42	Accumulate	PER23.2x
05/15/18	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.38	0.42	Accumulate	PER23.2x
08/14/18	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.36	0.42	Accumulate	PER23.2x
01/23/19	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.34	0.42	Buy
02/21/19	phillip	Singapore O&G	0.355	0	Cease Coverage

Stock calls for 27 March 2017

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/27/19	CIMB	Biolidics	0.27	0.32	Add	EV/Sales 12x
03/27/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x, PB1.2x, Ev/Ebitda6.5x
03/27/19	Lim & Tan	MIT	0.36	0.405	Buy	Mid-point of $0.4-0.41
03/27/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.825	0.89	Accumulate	DCF

Boeing 737-Max may not be able to fly to china for at least 1 year.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-not-taking-boeing-737-max-8-airworthiness-certificate-11382038

China won't give certification to Boeing 737-Max now and it may take up to 15 months to get the certification in China.

Therefore, no Boeing 737-Max will be able to fly in and out of China since it doesn't have the airworthiness certification.

Singapore Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/24/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.605	0.79	Buy
01/26/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.63	0.83	Buy	PER26.8x FY18, PEG0.3x
02/06/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.58	0.79	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY18
03/01/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.83	Buy	PER26.8x FY18
03/02/18	DBS Vickers	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.73	Buy
03/02/18	Kim Eng	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.7	Buy	PER27x FY18
03/02/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.56	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER26x FY18
03/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.51	0.74	Buy	PER25.8x FY18
05/16/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.505	0.74	Buy	PER26.8x FY18
05/16/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.505	0.68	Buy	DCF
05/16/18	DBS Vickers	Singapore Medical	0.505	0.73	Buy	PER25x FY19
06/06/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.495	0.74	Buy
06/27/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.46	0.68	Buy
07/31/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.425	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER21.5x
08/15/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.43	0.56	Buy	DCF
08/16/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.425	0.74	Buy
11/07/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.4	0.74	Buy	PER22.2x FY19
11/08/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.41	0.56	Buy	DCF
12/14/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.405	0.56	Buy
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.4	0.56	Buy
02/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.47	0.65	Buy	PER23x FY19
02/21/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.47	0.54	Buy	DCF

Sing Holdings - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/18	Amfrasers	Sing Holdings	0.42	0.68	Buy	RNAV (30% discount), PB1x FY17

Silverlake - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/25/18	CIMB	Silverlake	0.53	0.58	Add	DCF
05/16/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.55	0.65	Buy	DCF, PER21x FY19
05/16/18	CIMB	Silverlake	0.55	0.56	Add	DCF
05/24/18	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.545	0.65	Not Rated	PER22x FY19
06/20/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.52	0.65	Buy	DCF, PERf21x FY19
07/27/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.515	0.65	Buy	DCF, PER23x FY19
08/27/18	CIMB	Silverlake	0.455	0.56	Add	DCF
08/28/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.46	0.57	Buy	DCF
09/07/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.445	0.57	Buy
09/14/18	CIMB	Silverlake	0.42	0.56	Add	DCF
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.41	0.65	Buy	DCF
11/14/18	CIMB	Silverlake	0.41	0.56	Add	Sum of parts, PER17.6x FY20
12/14/18	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.415	0.65	Buy
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.415	0.65	Buy	DCF
01/03/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.405	0.6	Buy	PER21x FY19
01/07/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.425	0.62	Buy	PER21x FY19
02/01/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.485	0.65	Buy	DCF
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.515	0.62	Buy	PER21x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.57	0.62	Add	Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.555	0.65	Buy

Stock calls for 26 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.92	2.16	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.44	3.56	Add
03/26/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.8	Add
03/26/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.87	10.66	Add
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.54	0.62	Buy
03/26/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.54	0.61	Buy	DCF
03/26/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.54	0.6	Add
03/26/19	OCBC	DBS	25.12	29.31	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.285	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Genting	1.03	1.28	Add
03/26/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.182	0.19	Hold	DCF
03/26/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.765	1.03	Add
03/26/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.17	8.41	Add
03/26/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.315	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.99	13.85	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.06	5.6	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Singtel	2.97	3.3	Add	Sum of parts
03/26/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.75	4.08	Add
03/26/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.51	1.65	Hold	DCF (10% discount)
03/26/19	OCBC	UOB	24.95	28.3	Buy

Global inflation or deflation? - Part 2

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/global-inflation-or-deflation.html

Our latest analysis is that inflation will rear its head in the 2nd half of 2019.

What caused the sudden change from our previous analysis whereby Asia would face deflation?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/asian-deflation-is-happening.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/deflation-will-start-in-asia-soon.html

Well, our change stemmed from the US political will to depreciate the USD to create inflation which ran counter to our previous deflation analysis.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usd-is-likely-to-depreciate-soon-why.html

Furthermore, the pork prices in China will appreciate in the 2nd half of 2019 because of swine disease.  This forces China to import pigs in huge numbers which will boost the pork prices as pork is a staple food in China.  It also forms part of the CPI calculation.

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/chinas-pork-imports-double-2019-rabobank-analyst-predicts

As the USD is expected to depreciate and worldwide food prices (including China) are expected to increase, we have decided to change our stance from deflation to inflation in the 2nd half of 2019.

China has cut back on Boeing planes after 737-Max saga.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-seals-long-awaited-aircraft-163320433.html

China has just ordered a US$35b deal from Airbus which is a blow to Boeing.

It is ridiculous to solve a defective structural design with new anti-stall software.  Buying more from Airbus means buying less from Boeing.  Nobody will buy from both manufacturers at the same time!

The market rout is not over yet.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-refuses-to-concede-on-us-demands-to-ease-curbs-on-tech-11374034

The investors have not factored in the breakdown of the US-China trade talk.  Insofar, the investors have been optimistic about the outcome and are buying because of the fear of missing out of the market rally.

If the US demands get too outrageous, China will walk away from the trade deal.

SIIC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/15/18	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.28	0.32	Hold	PER13x
01/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIIC	0.29	0.32	Hold	PER13x FY19

SIA Engineering - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.26	4	Buy	DCF, PER24.9x FY18
02/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.33	4	Buy	DCF
02/05/18	phillip	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.51	Accumulate	DCF
02/05/18	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.5	Hold	PER21x FY19
02/05/18	CIMB	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.13	Reduce	DCF
02/05/18	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	3.33	0	Hold
02/05/18	OCBC	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.7	Buy	DCF
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.86	Buy
03/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.25	4	Buy
05/11/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.31	4	Buy	DCF, PER20.8x FY18
05/16/18	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	3.33	0	Hold
05/17/18	phillip	SIA Engineering	3.31	3.57	Accumulate	DCF
05/17/18	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	3.31	3.92	Buy	Sum of parts
05/17/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.31	3.8	Buy	PER19.6x ex-cash
05/17/18	OCBC	SIA Engineering	3.31	3.7	Buy
06/11/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.17	3.8	Buy
07/20/18	phillip	SIA Engineering	3.19	3.56	Accumulate	DCF, PER22x FY19
07/20/18	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	3.19	3.92	Buy	Sum of parts
07/23/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.2	3.4	Hold	DCF, PER21.8x FY19, Buy @ $3-3.1
08/01/18	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.98	3.31	Add	DCF
09/10/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.93	3.4	Hold
11/12/18	phillip	SIA Engineering	2.83	2.81	Neutral	DCF, PER20.6x FY19
11/12/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.83	2.7	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $2.40 or PER15x FY19
11/12/18	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.83	2.94	Hold	Sum of parts
11/12/18	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.83	3.11	Add	DCF, PER19.6x CY19
11/26/18	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.51	2.64	Hold	DCF
12/06/18	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.49	3	Buy	DCF
01/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.39	2.7	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.85	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.47	Hold
02/11/19	phillip	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.66	Neutral	DCF
02/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.55	Hold
02/12/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.39	3.11	Add	DCF
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.39	2.7	Hold	DCF & PER16x FY20 & Div Yield 4.5% & EV/Ebitda11x

SIA - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	10.67	11.9	Buy	PB0.9x FY18
01/03/18	OCBC	SIA	10.67	10.5	Hold
01/31/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	11.31	10.55	Hold
02/09/18	Kim Eng	SIA	10.86	10.95	Hold	PB0.93x FY18
02/14/18	CIMB	SIA	10.62	12.05	Add	PB1x CY18
02/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	10.62	11.9	Buy	PB0.9x FY18
02/14/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	10.62	12	Buy	PB1x FY19
02/15/18	OCBC	SIA	11.15	10.85	Hold	PB0.9x FY18
02/15/18	Credit Suisse	SIA	11.15	10.7	Neutral
03/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	11.01	11.9	Buy
03/15/18	Lim & Tan	SIA	11.2	0	Neutral
05/07/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	11.03	11.9	Buy	PB0.9x FY18
05/18/18	Lim & Tan	SIA	11.14	0	Hold
05/18/18	CIMB	SIA	11.14	11.75	Add	PB1.05x
05/21/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	11.56	12.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1x FY19
05/21/18	OCBC	SIA	11.56	11.3	Hold
05/21/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	11.56	13.7	Buy	PB1.2x FY19
06/05/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	11.48	13.7	Buy
06/11/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	11.43	12.6	Buy
06/19/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	11.2	11.9	Hold	PB0.95x, Buy @ $10.9
06/21/18	OCBC	SIA	11.01	11.3	Hold
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	10.42	11.9	Hold	PB0.9x, Buy @ $10.50-10.60
07/27/18	Lim & Tan	SIA	10.8	0	Hold
07/27/18	OCBC	SIA	10.8	11.01	Hold
07/27/18	Kim Eng	SIA	10.8	9.65	Sell	PB0.82x FY18
07/30/18	CIMB	SIA	10.22	11.75	Add	PB1.05x CY18
07/30/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	10.22	12.4	Buy	PB1.1x FY19
07/31/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	10.1	11.1	Hold	PB0.8x, Buy @ $9.80
09/10/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.62	11.1	Hold
09/18/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.57	10.4	Hold	PB0.75x, Buy @ $9.10
10/16/18	Macquarie	SIA	9.2	11.7	Outperform	EV/Ebitda7x FY19, Cut from $12.50
10/17/18	OCBC	SIA	9.15	10.71	Buy	PB0.9x
11/09/18	Kim Eng	SIA	9.65	9.8	Hold	PB0.82x FY20
11/12/18	CIMB	SIA	9.52	10.1	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
11/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.42	10.4	Hold	PB0.75x FY19, Buy @ $9.20-9.30
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.42	10.2	Hold	PB0.85x FY19
11/15/18	OCBC	SIA	9.41	10.71	Buy	PB0.85x FY19
11/15/18	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.41	0	Hold
11/30/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.65	10.2	Hold
01/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.5	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
01/24/19	CIMB	SIA	9.5	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	CIMB	SIA	9.87	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.87	11	Buy	PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.87	0	Hold
02/18/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.76	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19	OCBC	SIA	9.76	10.71	Buy
03/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.83	10.25	Hold
03/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.83	10.1	Hold	Buy @ $9

Stock calls for 25 March 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/25/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.186	0.215	Accumulate	PER10x
03/25/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy	DDM
03/25/19	CIMB	Y Venture	0.06	0.15	Add

Huawei won the fight in Europe against the US.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/exclusive--eu-to-drop-threat-of-huawei-ban-but-wants-5g-risks-monitored---sources-11371674

How did Huawei win the fight?

Huawei was able to win the fight because of its 10,000+ patents.  The EU realized that it would contravene Huawei's patents in 5G and couldn't develop the same 5G speed without Huawei.  Furthermore, excluding Huawei's components and parts in the EU would increase the 5G costs tremendously.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/wipo-showed-that-china-didnt-steal.html

Well done Huawei!

What caused the US stock markets to plunge yesterday?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-why-stock-market-falling-141730433.html

The following contributing factors:

1.The global environment especially the recent Germany PMI data.  Germany is the bellwether of Europe and it will drag the whole Europe down when it is having a recession.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/germany-will-enter-into-recession-in.html

2.The chaotic US treasury market is signalling a recession is in the offing.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-us-treasurys-situation-is-getting.html

3. The dovish fed policy is creating an artificially low interest rate environment which will make the banking and financial industry less profitable.  In a nutshell, the banks and financial firms will find it difficult to earn more incomes in a low rate environment.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/03/what-stocks-to-buy-in-interest-rate.html

Baltic dry index - 690

Today, Friday, March 22 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 5 points, reaching 690 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=====================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 1016

Total rig count 1016 versus 1026 last week

The Baker Hughes rig count is coming in lower for the 5th week in a row

• Oil rigs, 824 versus 830 estimate. That is also down from 833 last week
• Gas rigs, 192 versus 193 last week
• Total rigs, 1016 versus 1026 last week

The price of crude oil was trading at $58.47 right before the report. It is currently trading at $58.59.

======================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Germany will enter into a recession in the 2nd half of 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/german-manufacturing-sinks-deeper-contraction-083000514.html

The PMI is at 44.7 now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-shares-firm-solid-u-011607182.html

The German bund 10-year yield is negative.

The PMI is a harbinger and the country usually enters into a recession 6 months later.  Therefore, it is likely that Germany will enter into a recession around September 2019.  There are many telltale signs now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/germany-almost-got-into-recession.html

SHS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/25/18	phillip	SHS	0.23	0.29	Buy	PER10x FY19
08/23/18	phillip	SHS	0.24	0.29	Buy	PER10x FY19
11/19/18	phillip	SHS	0.215	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x FY19
01/29/19	phillip	SHS	0.197	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x FY19
03/08/19	phillip	SHS	0.191	0.194	Neutral	PB0.7x