Huawei will replace the US$21b chip orders with its own chips eventually.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/huaweis-hisilicon-says-long-preparing-u-ban-scenario-053715518--finance.html

The US chip makers will lose US$21b orders from Huawei eventually because of the US sanctions.  The other Chinese telecom and mobile phone makers will also replace foreign chips with China made chips and the US will lose the entire China market eventually.

We've stated before that the global semiconductor slowdown was permanent in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html

Singapore Nodx fell at a double digit pace again in April 2019.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/17/singapore-april-exports-slump-10-year-on-year/

Year on year changes (YOY):

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/singapore-nodx-contracted-117-in-march.html

No wonder SG is trying to get cozy with China now because the bad number will be reflected in the GDP data soon.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/why-did-sg-have-change-of-heart-real.html

China is stirring up anti-US sentiment in its citizens.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-war-only-us-022837025.html

China is prepping its citizens for a long economic war with the US by stirring up anti-US sentiment so that its citizens will reduce or stop buying and using US products and services.

This is definitely not a piece of good news because the Chinese are a bunch of nationalistic people.

Once the US firms lose China market share, it will be very difficult to gain back.

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 2

Let me accentuate this again.  The selloff of the US treasuries by China is not a retaliatory move!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Coincidentally, we had already provided the explanation in 2018.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-more-us-tries-to-hurt-china-more-it.html

US economic update!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/atlanta-fed-forecast-for-gdp-growth-sliding-rate-cut-chances-surging.html

Atlanta Fed is one of the Fed banks which is tasked to provide the US GDP analysis and forecast.  For your information, every Fed bank is tasked to do something for the government.

Atlanta Fed is forecasting a weak economic growth and has cut the GDP growth from 3.2% to 1.1%.  This 2/3 cut has vindicated our previous analysis about the 1st QTR GDP below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-is-going-downhill.html

We had already predicted weak GDP growth in the 2nd QTR in our PMI post on 2 May 2019 because we were skeptical about the putative 1st QTR GDP number.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html

The 1st QTR GDP growth of 3.2% was propped up by a sharp decline in imports and an increase in inventory buildup which was caused by weak retail sales and weak durable goods orders.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Why did SG have a change of heart? A real change or a deception?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/wow-singapore-is-trying-to-get-into.html

Will the Chinese believe in SG?

This change of heart comes too late.

SG government knows that our future is bleak because of the US-China trade war which won't be a short one.  Furthermore, we have an anti-SG neighbour (Malaysia) and it is always creating troubles for SG.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

Therefore, circumstances force our government to have a change of heart but the Chinese won't believe SG.  Why not?

As long as our military defence is dependent on US-based systems, we will always stand together with the US in times of crises.  The Chinese have seen through SG many times before unless we diversify our military defence.

SG knows that it has to rely on China now.  Hopefully, the Chinese will give SG another chance because being late is better than never.  Singapore also has to prove to the Chinese that we mean what we've said by diversifying our defence to gain China's trust.  If not, the Chinese won't trust SG at all.

Let's work together for a brighter future and world peace!

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/04/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.25	0.34	Add	PER10x FY20

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.245	0.36	Buy
03/07/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.235	0.3	Buy	PER10x
04/26/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.215	0.3	Buy

Stock calls for 16 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.4	1.5	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.58	Hold	PER10x
05/16/19	Phillip	APTV	0.178	0.16	Reduce	EV/Ebitda11x
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	8.54	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
05/16/19	OCBC	City Developments	8.54	10.68	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.54	10.66	Add
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.52	2.59	Hold	DCF, PER17.7x, Buy @ $2.40
05/16/19	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	2.52	2.4	Hold
05/16/19	Amfrasers	Comfortdelgro	2.52	2.77	Buy
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.7	1.53	Neutral	PER13x FY20
05/16/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.7	1.93	Buy	PER17x
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.7	1.95	Buy	DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.7	1.7	Hold	Buy @ $1.50
05/16/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.545	0.66	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.405	0.51	Buy	PER23x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Jumbo	0.405	0.41	Hold	Buy @ $0.37
05/16/19	CIMB	Jumbo	0.405	0.52	Add
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.6	Buy
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.975	1.03	Hold	PER16.8x FY19/20
05/16/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.13	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.9	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.41	Add
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Silverlake	0.52	0.63	Buy	PER21x FY19
05/16/19	CIMB	Silverlake	0.52	0.58	Add
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Singtel	3.13	3.35	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Singtel	3.13	3.59	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.13	3.4	Add	Sum of parts
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.13	3.58	Buy
05/16/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.13	3.37	Hold	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.9	4.22	Buy
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.9	4.5	Buy
05/16/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.9	4.43	Add	PER22x FY20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.64	0.45	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19/20
05/16/19	CIMB	UOB	25.1	29.58	Add	GGM
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.5	3.94	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Wilmar	3.5	3.66	Hold	PB0.95x
05/16/19	CIMB	Wilmar	3.5	3.96	Add	Sum of parts
05/16/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.44	1.68	Buy	PER5x

China has started to sell US treasuries.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-sells-most-us-treasuries-in-nearly-two-and-a-half-years-idUSKCN1SL2U4

This is indeed an unusual move as it is the biggest selloff in nearly 2 and a half years.

However, this move might be misinterpreted by many because it could be that China was trying to stop its RMB from sliding further.

Like I said before, China is a consuming nation now and further slides in RMB will cause inflation in China to spike and slow down local consumption.  A rapid deterioration in RMB will impact imports and this will be bad for other export-oriented countries.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html

Wow! Singapore is trying to get into China's good books.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-urges-us-to-accept-chinas-rise-spare-other-nations-035332068.html

Wow! I can't believe this is coming from Singapore.  Singapore has spoken in favour of China for the first time.

Look like SG has woken up because it knows its economic growth will be badly affected soon in the US-China trade war as China's imports are dwindling.  The ugly figures will show up in SG economic data soon if the US-China trade war is prolonged.

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.245	0.2	Sell
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.27	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.255	0.24	Hold
02/27/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.28	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts
02/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.28	0.21	Sell
03/01/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.275	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.275	0.27	Hold
04/09/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.315	0.29	Hold	PB0.65x
04/09/19	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.315	0.23	Reduce
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.295	0.21	Sell
05/14/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.275	0.29	Hold
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.275	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/19	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.735	1.76	Buy	Sum of parts

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.245	Buy
02/13/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.198	0.245	Buy
03/18/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.183	0.245	Buy
03/25/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.186	0.215	Accumulate	PER10x
03/26/19	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.182	0.19	Hold	DCF
04/26/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.215	Accumulate

Stock calls for 15 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.69	0.8	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.405	0.41	Neutral	DCF
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.57	2.65	Take Profit
05/15/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.57	2.69	Hold
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.57	2.77	Buy
05/15/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.87	0.94	Accumulate	DDM, PB0.6x
05/15/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.785	0.87	Buy	DDM, PB0.93x
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.275	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts
05/15/19	phillip	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	CIMB	HMI	0.530	0.68	Add	DCF
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy
05/15/19	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.22	0.29	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.835	0.95	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.835	0.9	Buy
05/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.835	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
05/15/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.835	0.94	Buy	DDM

The US is going to impose a blanket ban on Huawei.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-trump-expected-sign-order-paving-way-u-045236197--finance.html

It is time for China to impose a ban on US IT firm too.  Many US IT firms have backdoors for NSA and FBI to snoop around to gather intelligence of any kind, be it for terrorism or commercial purposes.

https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/6/4403868/nsa-fbi-mine-data-apple-google-facebook-microsoft-others-prism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSAKEY

China should ban Microsoft as it poses a high security risk.

I've stopped using Microsoft a long time ago and switched to Linux (ubuntu).

Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.975	1.23	Buy	DCF
01/15/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.03	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.06	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.1	1.23	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	CIMB	Genting	1.11	1.28	Add	EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19	OCBC	Genting	1.11	1.31	Buy	FCFE
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.11	1.22	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.11	1.32	Buy
02/22/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.11	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.07	1.54	Buy	EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.02	1.22	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Genting	1.03	1.28	Add
04/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.07	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.07	1.08	Neutral	DCF
04/04/19	CIMB	Genting	1.07	1.11	Add	EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19	OCBC	Genting	1.07	1.31	Buy
04/04/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.07	1.54	Buy	EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.07	1.12	Hold	EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
05/10/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.95	1.04	Hold
05/10/19	OCBC	Genting	0.95	1.23	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.95	1.02	Neutral	DCF
05/10/19	CIMB	Genting	0.95	1.06	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.95	1.26	Buy
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.95	1.2	Buy	DCF

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.23	Buy	DCF
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.186	0.27	Buy	EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.2	0.2	Hold	PB0.9x
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.27	Buy
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.21	0.285	Buy
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.21	0	Buy
02/28/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
02/28/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.215	0.2	Hold
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.205	0.24	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.285	Buy
04/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.21	0.24	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.205	0	Buy

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/12/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.51	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
04/15/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.6	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.635	0.9	Add	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.615	0.82	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.615	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Frencken	0.615	0	Buy
05/10/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.615	0.9	Add
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.595	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19