Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/12/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.51	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
04/15/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.6	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.635	0.9	Add	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.615	0.82	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.615	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Frencken	0.615	0	Buy
05/10/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.615	0.9	Add
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.595	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19

Stock calls for 14 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.545	0.67	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	26	30.8	Buy	GGM, PB1.5x FY20
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.79	0.85	Buy	DDM
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.595	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
05/14/19	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.275	0.29	Hold
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF
05/14/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.540	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY20
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	HRnetGroup	0.76	0.85	Hold
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold
05/14/19	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.13	Hold	DCF
05/14/19	CIMB	Riverstone	0.995	1.22	Add
05/14/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.85	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.43	Hold
05/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.55	Hold	Buy @ $2.30
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.6	Hold
05/14/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.43	3.11	Add
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Thai Beverage	0.765	0.75	Hold
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.615	0.55	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.08	8.53	Buy
05/14/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.01	2.41	Buy

What will China do when it runs out of US products to tax?

The trade deficit that exists between the US and China only includes physical products that are being traded but doesn't include services like finance, IT, banking, insurance, tourism, etc.

The real trade deficit is only about US$100++ billion between the 2 countries after including the services.  Therefore, China is likely to target the US services when all the Chinese goods are being taxed and this will hurt the US very badly since the US is a service-oriented country.

Risk-free arbitrage opportunity exists in RMB now.

The CNH-CNY spread is widening and this will present a risk-free arbitrage opportunity between currency trading in HK & China.

The US has issued $300b target list of China goods.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-issues-300b-target-list-065125531.html

This $300b target list will be imposed after the G20 summit in June 2019 when the US and China presidents cannot achieve a trade deal.

China will be preparing a list too but this list will extend to other things.

Let's sit back and watch!

China is brilliant to be hush-hush about its retaliatory US tariffs - Part 2

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-china-donald-trump-xi-jinping-trade-war-escalates-beijing-11530484

China had retaliated with its own tariffs and slaughtered investors who had bought the stocks last Friday.  Those investors bought stocks with the assumption that China would relent and conclude the US-China trade deal soon but they've misjudged the situation.

This US-China trade war won't be a short one!

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-is-brilliant-to-be-hush-hush.html

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.74	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
02/14/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.7	2.08	Add
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.7	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
03/22/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.77	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.81	1.98	Buy
04/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.84	2.3	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.89	2.3	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/07/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.85	2.08	Add

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.2	Buy	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.19	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.19	Add
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.09	1.2	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.16	1.2	Buy
04/30/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.2	Hold
05/02/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.21	Hold	DDM

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/01/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.8	Buy	DDM
02/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Buy
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.74	0.82	Buy
05/03/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.85	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.77	Hold	DCF

Stock calls for 13 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.9	2.16	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.55	30.5	Buy
05/13/19	Citibank	DBS	26.55	27	Neutral
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.77	0.94	Buy	DCF
05/13/19	CIMB	Jadason	0.038	0.059	Add	PB1x CY19
05/13/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.39	13	Outperform
05/13/19	phillip	OCBC	11.39	12.68	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	14.62	Buy	PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.26x
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.64	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.27	5.6	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.39	2.86	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	4.02	4.7	Buy
05/13/19	Phillip	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.83	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/13/19	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.94	Add
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.85	Hold	Sum of parts
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.92	Buy	Sum of parts
05/13/19	OCBC	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.88	Hold
05/13/19	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.26	0	Buy
05/13/19	CIMB	UOL	7.26	8.45	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
05/13/19	OCBC	UOL	7.26	8.5	Buy
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.51	3.8	Buy	Sum of parts
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.51	3.86	Buy	DCF, PER15.6x FY19

Best world didn't give a full disclosure on the relationship with its primary China agent.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/best-world-admits-owner-china-223032614.html

Why did Best World hide this clandestine relationship?

This incident gave Best World a very bad impression as it was forced to admit the relationship by SGX.  This saga also strengthened the Bonitas research's report that Best World was fudging its books.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/bonitas-research-best-world-is-fraud.html

China is brilliant to be hush-hush about its retaliatory US tariffs.

China didn't respond immediately with its retaliatory US tariffs on Friday.  This is not a piece of good news for the US markets because it keeps the investors edgy since the retaliatory US tariffs will come anytime.  Who will dare to buy stocks when the retaliatory US tariffs will come anytime.

Baltic dry index - 1013

Today, Friday, May 10 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 39 points, reaching 1013 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 988

The U.S. dropped two oil rigs this week, according to weekly data from Baker Hughes, a GE Company.

The gas rig count remained flat this week, making the nation’s overall total rig count 988. This is 57 fewer rigs than one year ago when the rig count was 1,045.

New Mexico led all states in rig declines, posting a loss of four this week. Wyoming dropped two rigs while Louisiana and North Dakota dropped one rig apiece.

California added three rigs this week, while Oklahoma added two and Pennsylvania and Texas added one rig apiece.

Among the major basins, the Marcellus and the Cana Woodford saw an increase of two rigs and one rig, respectively.

The Permian Basin lost two rigs this week, bringing the number of active rigs in that basin to 457. The Permian currently accounts for more than half of the nation’s total rig count.

The DJ-Niobrara, Utica and Williston all dropped one rig apiece.

==================

Related stock: Keppe Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
01/21/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	1.56	Buy
01/21/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	1.5	Hold	DDM
01/21/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	0	Hold
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.5	Neutral
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
04/24/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.5	Neutral	DDM
04/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.58	Buy
04/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.5	Hold	DDM

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.55	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	0	Hold
01/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.5	Buy
01/23/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.21	Neutral	DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.4	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.32	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.35	Add	DDM
02/15/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.24	2.21	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.3	2.55	Buy
03/01/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.5	Buy
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.4	Buy	DCF
03/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.6	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.28	2.19	Neutral
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.38	2.6	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.6	Buy
04/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	0	Buy
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.19	Neutral	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.61	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.31	Neutral	DDM

Fortune Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.7	10.68	Buy

Stock calls for 10 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.615	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Frencken	0.615	0	Buy
05/10/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.615	0.9	Add
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.205	0	Buy
05/10/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.95	1.04	Hold
05/10/19	OCBC	Genting	0.95	1.23	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.95	1.02	Neutral	DCF
05/10/19	CIMB	Genting	0.95	1.06	Add	EV/Ebitda8x FY20
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.95	1.26	Buy
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.95	1.2	Buy
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.97	8.02	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.31	12.2	Neutral
05/10/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.31	12	Hold
05/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.5	0.57	Hold
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold	RNAV (55% discount)
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Medical	0.445	0.62	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.445	0.48	Neutral	DCF

US tariffs against China have taken effect!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-tariff-increase-200b-chinese-040333406.html

Let's see how China will retaliate after the US$200b tariffs.

Many analysts and economists had said that China had nothing more to tax but they're dead wrong. Why?

China can make up the shortfalls by increasing the tariffs on already taxed US goods and this is unlimited.  Tariffs can go up to 1,000% or higher until the US goods cannot be sold in China anymore.

It will be interesting to see what will happen when the US & China don't trade with each other.

India is fudging its own economic data.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/india-s-incredulous-data--economists-create-own-benchmarks-11517966

India is fudging its own economic data.

Hahaha! Why am I not surprised?

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.69	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.56	0.69	Buy

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.27	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.56	1.6	Hold
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.72	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.69	2.1	Buy
03/01/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.71	2.03	Buy	PER17x
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.72	1.6	Neutral	PER13x FY19
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.72	1.97	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.7	2.12	Add
03/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.69	1.85	Hold	Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.79	2.12	Add
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.85	1.85	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.82	2.03	Buy	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.79	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65

Stock calls for 9 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/09/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.4	Buy
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.485	0.62	Buy
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.79	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.615	0.82	Buy	DCF
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.23	Neutral	DCF
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.87	Buy
05/09/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.41	Hold
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.99	1.06	Hold	Buy @ $0.95
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.11	3.55	Buy
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sunningdale	1.32	1.22	Hold	PER11x FY20, Buy @ $1.10
05/09/19	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.32	1.38	Hold	PB0.69x FY19

Bonitas Research: Best World is a fraud! - Part 2

REBUTTAL TO BEST WORLD’S CLARIFICATION ANNOUNCEMENT

On April 24, 2018 we published our investment opinion (the “Report”) on Best World International Ltd. (BB: BEST __ SGX: CGN) (“Best World” or the “Company”). On May 8, 2019, two weeks later, Best World issued a clarification announcement (the “Response”). Best World’s response is reminiscent of many companies we have identified in the past. They have chosen to hide behind their auditors for its reported financial performance and their lawyers for convoluted and misleading legal descriptions of its Chinese operations. Despite its length, Best World's Response fails to address the key issues raised in our Report.  We think its Response is littered with lies in an attempt to discredit our findings, which has only strengthened our belief that the Dora’s will not voluntarily disclose the truth. In our Rebuttal, we present additional evidence which corroborates our findings that Best World fabricated its 2017 reported sales to Changsha Best. Considering the abundance of factual, independently verifiable evidence including testimonials from Member Reps about Best World’s Direct-Selling China sales model, the Company blatantly lied in its response that it does not conduct direct selling in China.  The Company even surmises that the sudden influx of reviews on DR’s Secret online sales channels immediately after the Singapore Business Times article was because of “simply raised awareness” of its product and its brand to consumers.  Best World expects investors to believe that consumers became more aware of its DR’s Secret skin care products because the Singapore Business Times article was critical of its China operations. How does that make any sense? The Company continues to claim that its growth in China sales were “driven by underlying demand of the skin care products.” Another lie. How can any investor trust Best World after being told so many blatant lies? We stand by our opinion and the evidence presented in our Report that Best World is a fraud, that it fabricated its reported 2017 sales to Changsha Best, and that it currently operates a direct selling sales model in China. We have not been contacted by anyone yet, but in the event that we are mentioned in a defamation claim, we are ready with an exhaustive list of of internal discovery document requests for Best World which we expect will only corroborate publicly available findings. We encourage investors and regulators to replicate and confirm our findings to expedite the truth-gathering process. We remain short Best World’s stock. https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/bonitas-research-best-world-is-fraud.html The latest news is Best World is suing Bonitas Research now.

China's CPI has risen to 6-month high.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-factory-gate-inflation-hits-four-month-high-025321639--business.html

China CPI is at 2.5% in April, a 6-month high.

This is not unexpected as we've expected CPI to rise in China in our previous post.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/global-inflation-or-deflation.html

US-China trade tariffs will also contribute to higher CPI in the 2nd half of 2019 in the US & China.

We need to understand the chain of events in a real economy, starting with the CPI below.

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

First Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	phillip	First Reit	1.04	0.88	Neutral	DDM
01/17/19	Lim & Tan	First Reit	1.03	0	Neutral
01/18/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.01	0.97	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.01	1.2	Add	DDM
02/11/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.14	0.97	Sell
04/11/19	CIMB	First Reit	0.99	1.2	Add	DDM

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.625	0.675	Buy
02/07/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.675	Buy
02/13/19	Lim & Tan	Far East Hospitality	0.64	0	Buy
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.7	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Add	DDM
02/14/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.75	Buy	DDM
02/14/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Buy
04/15/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.67	Hold
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.7	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.71	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.8	Buy

Ezion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.05	0.06	Hold	PB0.3x FY19
03/11/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PER10x F20
04/05/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PB1.4x

Stock calls for 8 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/08/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.825	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
05/08/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.61	2.88	Add	DCF
05/08/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.72	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0	Buy
05/08/19	OCBC	Singapore Post	1.01	1	Hold
05/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.01	1.17	Add	DCF
05/08/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	1.01	0.96	Hold	DCF