Stock calls for 3 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/03/19	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.5	0.65	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	CIMB	DBS	24.29	27.64	Hold
06/03/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.149	0.15	Neutral
06/03/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.198	0.24	Accumulate
06/03/19	OCBC	KSH	0.45	0	Cease coverage
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.57	12.59	Hold
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.07	5.05	Hold	Buy @ $4.70
06/03/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.2	3.66	Buy	EV/Ebitda7x FY20
06/03/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.49	1.62	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6x FY19
06/03/19	CIMB	UOB	23.5	29.58	Add
06/03/19	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.605	0.63	Hold	PER8x CY20
06/03/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.33	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)

Omg! Boeing has a wing problem now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-737-max-planes-may-192001217.html

We've taken for granted that the US FAA would do a proper aviation safety certification for planes.  It is proven that the FAA is an irresponsible entity and is no longer an independent organization.

If every aviation safety authority starts to check on Boeing, I believe more problems can be found.  We must not trust the FAA anymore.

The US defense secretary is fear-mongering about China threat in Singapore.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/acting-us-defense-secretary-calls-053048457.html

If China's military defence budget of US$176B for 2019 is a threat, then what about the US's military budget of US$686B for 2019? US military budget is 3.9x more than China but China population is 4.7x greater than the USA.

Which one is more of a threat? Spending US$176B to protect 1.4B people or US$686B to protect 300M people?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

The US is really treating Asians as stupid people.

Baltic dry index - 1097

Today, Thursday, May 30 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 10 points, reaching 1097 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 984

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms. - Part 2

https://www.communicationstoday.co.in/huawei-reinstated-in-sd-association/

IEEE, SD and Wifi associations have started to reinstate Huawei after the removal.

It looks like China's blacklist is working wonders.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-will-create-blacklist-for.html

If the China blacklist is upheld to the US standards of the entity list, the blacklist will disrupt the supply chains for foreign companies on the list.

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/shangri-la-china-face-off-not-strategic-inevitability-pm-lee-11585858

PM Lee has made a judgment error on China again.  No wonder he keeps siding with the USA because he belittles China too much.

Yes, China cannot take down the US but the US also cannot take down China.  Just look at Russia!

The US cannot take down Russia even though the US economy and military prowess are much bigger.  Why? This is because both countries have large nuclear arsenals and going to war with each other is self-annihilating.  It will be an internecine war with China too.

China's economy will overtake the US in less than a decade if China GDP is still growing at the current rate.  The earliest will be in 2025 and the latest by 2030.  If we use PPP to measure the GDP, China is already the largest GDP in the world as compiled by PWC.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/02/china-is-worlds-largest-economy-based.html

China is just as resilient as the US because it has the support of 1.4B people.  The large local market size is able to revitalize China economy when there is an economic war with the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-is-consuming-economy-not.html

ECB's simulation also showed that China would win the trade war.  How did our PM Lee derive his conclusion?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/09/ecb-simulation-showed-that-china-would.html

Look like our PM Lee has lost touch with the China situation.  I'm very worried about SG future now after reading his speech.

China will create a blacklist for unreliable foreign firms.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-blacklist-us-unreliable-firms-huawei-trade-war-11585662

This will force companies to choose to do businesses either in the US or in China.  Who started this? USA!

Look like Google and Microsoft will be on the blacklist.  Many semiconductor manufacturers will be on the list too.

The business climate has changed.  Ceos have to choose between the USA and China now.

At the end of the day, all businesses will have a much smaller pie now because they cannot do businesses in both countries (US and China).

China has reaffirmed the friendship with Malaysia with a communique.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/a-day-after-mahathir-voiced-support-for-huawei-chinas-ambassador-to-malaysia-says-the-countries-will-be-friends-forever/

Communique - "Friendship Forever China-Malaysia"

This lengthy public article with 1,171 words was published on the embassy's FB signified an extraordinary milestone that Singapore couldn't achieve with China.  I am kinda worried about the strengthened relationship between China and Malaysia because SG will be marginalized by this strong bonding that SG has forsaken.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

India got backstabbed by the USA!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-says-end-of-india-trade-preference--done-deal--11583058

We've been warning that the US is not a reliable and credible country.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/india-pays-high-price-to-get-cozy-with.html

India and SG must learn from history.

When you take history seriously, history will repeat itself.

Turkey's economy has worsen!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-turkish-economy-shrinks-2-075823691.html

The Turkish economy has shrunk by 2.6% in Q1.  This is really a piece of bad news as a weakening economy will lead to a weakening lira and create a vicious cycle.  Ultimately, this will cause a collapse in the Turkish stock market.

Watch out for Turkish development as this may lead to the European Financial Crisis (EFC).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/1997-asian-financial-crisis-is.html

M1 - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	Kim Eng	M1	2.09	1.63	Sell
01/04/19	Phillip	M1	2.08	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06
01/08/19	OCBC	M1	2.06	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06
01/14/19	DMG & Partners	M1	2.07	2.06	Neutral	Offer $2.06
01/29/19	CIMB	M1	2.06	2.06	Hold	Offer $2.06
02/12/19	Kim Eng	M1	2.04	1.77	Sell
03/07/19	OCBC	M1	2.05	2.06	Accept Offer	Offer $2.06

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	Lim & Tan	Lian Beng	0.515	0	Buy on weakness

KSH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/19/18	OCBC	KSH	0.525	0.81	Buy
11/19/18	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.525	0	Buy
02/15/19	OCBC	KSH	0.52	0.81	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	KSH	0.535	0.81	Buy
05/31/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.45	0	Buy

Stock calls for 31 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/31/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.585	0.7	Buy
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.79	2.07	Buy	Ringgit $6.30 target price, PER32.8x FY2020
05/31/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.45	0	Buy
05/31/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.24	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
05/31/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.6	0.62	Hold
05/31/19	DMG & Partners	Valuetronics	0.625	0.61	Neutral	DCF
05/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.625	0.8	Buy

Microsoft has banned Huawei from its ecosystem.

https://marketrealist.com/2019/05/microsoft-joins-google-in-cutting-off-huawei/

Microsoft is already a US state agent many years ago and I'm not surprised by this.

We've reported on MS before (See the posts below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/05/stop-using-microsoft-windows-and-you.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-us-is-going-to-impose-blanket-ban.html

Hahaha! Canada has to deal with its own waste now.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/cargo-ship-arrives-philippines-return-canadian-trash-151417611.html

Canada cannot ship its waste to the Philippines and Malaysia now.  Hahaha!

It is forced to deal with its own waste now by finding its own landfill, building its own waste burning furnace, etc.  The bottom line is the air won't be as clean as before in Canada anymore.

The US stock markets are getting precarious.

The risk-free (10y bond yield) rate is at 2.22% and it is below the Fed's interest rates bandwidth of 2.25%-2.5%.  This will increase the Fed's pressure to reduce its interest rates as the current rates are no longer relevant and effective to manage the market expectation.  This exposes the fragility of the risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  Furthermore, there are some yield curve inversions which denote a forthcoming recession.

Is a recession coming soon?

A recession is highly likely to happen in our view. Why?

The US corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is giving a red light warning now.

Whenever there was a credit cycle peak in the past, there would be a US recession.  The credit cycle peaks happened in 1990 (oil shock recession), 2000 (tech bubble burst), 2008 (US housing collapse, Lehmans bro minibonds) and 2018 (forthcoming recession).

The credit cycle had peaked in 2018 and the US-China trade war started in 2018 too.  The world economies have started to slow down now due to the trade war.  Consequently, the US bond markets are showing the low-risk appetite of the investors in the current market.  With so many negative factors in this global environment now, a recession is inevitable.

Koufu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.63	0.8	Buy	PER17x FY19
03/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.67	0.95	Buy	PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.67	0.85	Buy	PER18x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.805	0.95	Buy
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.77	0.8	Hold	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy

Kimly - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.27	Neutral
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.24	Neutral	DCF
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.23	Neutral	DCF