Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold
02/25/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.415	0.41	Hold
04/17/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.4	0.41	Hold
05/09/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.41	Hold
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold	RNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	CIMB	Riverstone	1.1	1.22	Add	PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	1.1	1.19	Hold	PER16x FY19
05/14/19	CIMB	Riverstone	0.995	1.22	Add	PER16.5x FY20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.975	1.03	Hold	PER16.8x FY19/20

Stock calls for 18 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy
06/18/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.42	4.1	Outperform	RNAV (25% discount)
06/18/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.58	2.65	Neutral	DCF & FCF
06/18/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.565	0.6	Add	DDM
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.635	0.73	Buy	DCF

The US is trying to nullify China patents now to win the trade war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senator-rubio-targets-huawei-over-215937943.html

This will definitely open up a new battle frontier and it is bad for businesses.

If the US nullify China patents, China will retaliate by nullifying the US patents too.  When these 2 countries don't recognize each other's patents, the whole world will be in chaos because nobody is protected with patents anymore.

It is best not to open the pandora's box because the repercussion is too severe.

Raffles Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.11	1.16	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.3	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.02	Neutral	DCF
02/26/19	OCBC	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.25	Buy
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19
02/26/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.09	Neutral	DCF
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.07	1.02	Neutral
05/02/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.09	Neutral	DCF
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/19	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.13	Hold	DCF
06/12/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.1	Hold

Q & M - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Q & M	0.495	0.513	Neutral

Propnex - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.565	0.66	Buy
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.595	0.66	Buy
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY19
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/07/19	CIMB	Propnex	0.49	0.64	Add

Stock calls for 17 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.81	29.46	Buy
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.75	0.9	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.87	1	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20
06/17/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.755	0.8	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.99	28.97	Buy

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 4

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-trouble-micron-china-unveils-160000815.html

We had stated previously that the semiconductor was facing a permanent slowdown outside China in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

This prediction is materializing very fast because China feels the urgency to ramp up its semiconductor developments now.  Many foreign semiconductor manufacturers will lose their China market shares in the future.

Singapore Nodx fell 15.9% in May 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exports-fall-most-three-031737792.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html

Baltic dry index - 1062

Today, Thursday, June 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 18 points, reaching 1062 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 969

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Perennial Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.645	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.65	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.64	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)

Penguin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	2.8	3.1	Buy
03/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.88	3.25	Buy	DDM
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.92	3.25	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy

Stock calls for 14 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/14/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.5	1.38	Hold
06/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF
06/14/19	CIMB	Singtel	3.35	3.5	Add	Sum of parts
06/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.885	1.7	Buy

The true picture of US economy.

We will use the economic process to analyze the US GDP situation.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

CPI: Stagnant ( This showed that there is no overwhelming demand to support the US economy and the inventory rundown must continue to allow CPI to increase.  Thus, there is a supply issue in the US which means that weak economic growth is expected in the future.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/consumer-price-index-may-2019.html

As the US uses interest rates to manage inflation, we will use the 3m-10y yield spread to gauge the situation.  This is not applicable to Singapore because we use the currency exchange rate to manage our inflation.

3-month Libor vs US 10-year yield spread:

The 10-year yield is below the 3-month Libor now which depicts a death cross occurrence (negative signal for technical analysis).  Fundamentally speaking, this means there is a shortage of money supply which will curb business investments with the ensuing outcome of slower economic growth.

The US PMI has declined in May 2019.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html

The decline in May inventories under the PMI corroborated the aforesaid CPI situation whereby the continual inventories rundown must persist for CPI to rise since there is no overwhelming demand to deplete the inventories.  Without the rundown, the CPI cannot rise to kickstart the change in the economic process.

With the weaknesses in CPI, 3m-10y yield spread and PMI, the next US GDP figure will be weak!

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Pacific Century	0.385	0	Buy

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.183	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)