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Thursday, January 23, 2020

The recession constellation is aligning in the US! - Part 3

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-recession-constellation-is-aligning.html

1. Tltro II will expire in March 2020.
2. ISM PMI reported its first contraction for August (Below 50) in September. The US recession may happen at the earliest 6 months later which is in March 2020.
3. The Republicans want to remove its President by March 2020. Nancy Pelosi just needs to get some Republicans to deflect to impeach Trump.
4. The opec+ will end the oil production cut in March 2020.  This will affect the US shale oil industry because the US has been gaining the oil market share at the expense of opec+.
5. Iran's retaliation against the US for the latest airstrike.
6. Wuhan virus.

CNY is approaching and there will be massive festive travellers in China.  If there is an outbreak during the CNY, the global economy will suffer soon.  Just look at the SARS outbreak and its economic impacts and you will know where the global economies are heading.

Canada and the US are trying to twist and turn the charge against Huawei Meng.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-prosecutor-set-defend-u-111334522.html

Yes, bank fraud is a criminal charge in the US and Canada.  However, the so-called "bank fraud" was committed in HK and HSBC never reported the bank fraud in HK.  Therefore, the US and Canada have no legitimate reason to put Meng under arrest.

If Meng is extradited to the US based on bank fraud committed in HK, then all the bank frauds in the world can be extradited to the US.  Meng was first arrested because she violated US sanction against Iran but Canada didn't have Iran sanction at that moment.  Thus, there was no double criminality issue at all in the US & Canada.

The US and Canada have a weak case over Meng.  If these 2 countries continue with their antics, they will lose their credibilities.

Many analysts are casting doubts on the viability of the phase 1 deal between the US and China.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3047018/chinas-trade-war-deal-may-be-doomed-start-scepticism-mounts

We had stated much earlier (April 2019) that the US-China trade deal wouldn't work.  It would be impossible for China to fulfill the terms in phase 1 deal since it had to be done based on market principles.  In other words, many US products are not competitive enough for China to import more.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-phase-1-us-china-trade-deal-can-be.html

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Del Monte - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/21/19 Lim & Tan Del Monte 0.12 0 Buy

DBS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners DBS 23.69 29.8 Buy GGM, PB1.54x FY19
01/03/19 CIMB DBS 23.49 27 Hold PER10.7x FY20
01/03/19 JP Morgan DBS 23.49 29 Overweight
01/08/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 23.75 28.5 Buy
01/08/19 Jefferies DBS 23.75 28.5 Buy
01/29/19 CIMB DBS 24.22 29 Add GGM, PB1.4x CY19
01/31/19 Kim Eng DBS 23.94 30.18 Buy DDM
02/01/19 phillip DBS 23.92 29.02 Buy
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 24.33 28.5 Buy
02/12/19 Kim Eng DBS 24.36 30.18 Buy
02/18/19 DMG & Partners DBS 24.74 29.8 Buy
02/18/19 Lim & Tan DBS 24.74 0 Buy
02/19/19 Jefferies DBS 25.2 28.5 Buy
02/19/19 OCBC DBS 25.2 29.31 Buy
02/19/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.2 28.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
02/19/19 phillip DBS 25.2 29 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
02/19/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.2 29.56 Buy DDM
02/19/19 CIMB DBS 25.2 29 Add GGM
02/19/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.2 28.4 Buy
02/20/19 Macquarie DBS 25.1 27 Neutral PB
02/26/19 Amfrasers DBS 25.18 27.7 Buy RIM
03/04/19 phillip DBS 25.08 29 Buy
03/07/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.36 29.56 Buy
03/11/19 CIMB DBS 25.06 29 Add
03/13/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.3 28.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY19
03/26/19 OCBC DBS 25.12 29.31 Buy
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.23 28.4 Buy
04/02/19 phillip DBS 25.59 29 Buy
04/10/19 DMG & Partners DBS 27 29.6 Buy PB1.43x FY20
04/11/19 CIMB DBS 26.97 29 Add
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 27.4 30.3 Buy GGM, PB1.57x FY19
04/22/19 Kim Eng DBS 27.4 29.56 Buy
04/29/19 Lim & Tan DBS 27.41 0 Buy
04/29/19 Citibank DBS 27.41 31.1 Buy
04/30/19 Macquarie DBS 28.4 27 Neutral
04/30/19 phillip DBS 28.4 29 Accumulate GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19 OCBC DBS 28.4 29.18 Hold Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19 CIMB DBS 28.4 30 Add GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19 DMG & Partners DBS 28.4 30.8 Buy PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19 Lim & Tan DBS 28.4 30 Hold
05/02/19 Amfrasers DBS 28.25 27.7 Hold
05/02/19 Jefferies DBS 28.25 31.5 Buy PER13.1x FY20
05/07/19 OCBC DBS 26.53 27.5 Hold
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.55 30.5 Buy
05/13/19 Citibank DBS 26.55 27 Neutral
05/14/19 DMG & Partners DBS 26 30.8 Buy GGM, PB1.5x FY20
05/22/19 CIMB DBS 25.74 27.64 Hold
05/22/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.74 29.46 Buy
06/03/19 CIMB DBS 24.29 27.64 Hold
06/06/19 phillip DBS 24.27 29 Accumulate
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 24.7 30.5 Buy
06/17/19 Kim Eng DBS 24.81 29.46 Buy
06/19/19 OCBC DBS 24.8 29.18 Buy Buy @ $27.50 or lower
07/01/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.96 29.46 Buy
07/01/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.96 30.5 Buy GGM, PB1.59x FY19
07/02/19 OCBC DBS 26.6 29.2 Buy GGM, PB1.4x, PER14.7x
07/03/19 phillip DBS 26.5 29 Accumulate
07/08/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.63 30.8 Buy PB1.5x FY20
07/12/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.61 30.3 Buy PB1.47x FY20
07/29/19 Lim & Tan DBS 26.88 0 Buy
07/30/19 DMG & Partners DBS 26.54 28.3 Hold GGM, PB1.37x FY20
07/30/19 CIMB DBS 26.54 27.59 Hold GGM
07/30/19 Kim Eng DBS 26.54 28.05 Hold DDM
07/30/19 OCBC DBS 26.54 28 Hold
07/30/19 phillip DBS 26.54 30.9 Accumulate
07/30/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.54 31.3 Buy
07/31/19 Macquarie DBS 26.49 25.8 Neutral PB
07/31/19 phillip DBS 26.49 27.6 Accumulate GGM, PB1.4x
08/23/19 DMG & Partners DBS 24.59 28.3 Neutral
08/29/19 Macquarie DBS 24.02 25.8 Neutral PB
09/05/19 phillip DBS 24.54 27.6 Accumulate
09/06/19 DMG & Partners DBS 24.63 25.3 Neutral GGM, PB1.23x FY20
09/26/19 Kim Eng DBS 24.73 28.05 Hold
09/27/19 CIMB DBS 24.82 27.59 Hold
10/01/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25 31.3 Buy
10/04/19 phillip DBS 24.57 27.6 Accumulate
10/29/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.18 29.75 Buy
11/05/19 phillip DBS 26.13 27.6 Accumulate
11/11/19 DMG & Partners DBS 26.61 25.3 Neutral GGM, PB1.23x FY20
11/11/19 Lim & Tan DBS 26.61 0 Buy on weakness
11/12/19 Macquarie DBS 26.64 25.8 Neutral PB
11/12/19 phillip DBS 26.64 27.3 Accumulate GGM, PB1.4x
11/12/19 DMG & Partners DBS 26.64 25.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.28x FY20
11/12/19 Kim Eng DBS 26.64 29.92 Buy DDM
11/12/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.64 30 Buy
12/02/19 CIMB DBS 25.25 28.29 Hold
12/02/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.25 29.92 Buy
12/03/19 DMG & Partners DBS 25.13 25.8 Neutral
12/04/19 phillip DBS 24.98 27.3 Accumulate
01/03/20 UOB Kay Hian DBS 26.11 30 Buy
01/08/20 CIMB DBS 26.05 28.29 Add
01/08/20 Kim Eng DBS 26.05 29.92 Buy
01/14/20 DMG & Partners DBS 26.1 25.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.28x FY20

Dasin Retail - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/15/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.885 0.95 Accumulate DDM
02/28/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.885 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.64x
05/15/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.87 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.6x
06/19/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.88 0.94 Accumulate
07/22/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.875 0.94 Accumulate
08/16/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.87 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.65x
09/24/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.845 0.94 Accumulate
10/18/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.845 0.94 Accumulate
11/25/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.84 0.94 Accumulate
11/27/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.84 0.88 Accumulate DDM, PB0.62x FY19

Stock calls for 22 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/22/20 Jefferies CapitaCommercial 2.13 2.3 Buy
01/22/20 Phillip Ireit 0.815 0.885 Accumulate DDM
01/22/20 CIMB Keppel DC Reit 2.25 2.03 Hold DDM
01/22/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Infrastructure 0.55 0.58 Buy DDM
01/22/20 DMG & Partners Keppel Pacific 0.765 0.88 Buy DDM
01/22/20 OCBC Mapletree Industrial 2.78 2.87 Hold
01/22/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.78 3 Buy
01/22/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.82 1.9 Buy DCF
01/22/20 CIMB Mapletree Logistics 1.82 1.56 Hold DDM
01/22/20 CIMB Mapletree North Asia 1.24 1.31 Add DDM
01/22/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.24 1.35 Buy DCF
01/22/20 Lim & Tan Parkway Life 3.4 0 Hold

Dairy Farm - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.57 8.64 Neutral DCF
03/04/19 DBS Vickers Dairy Farm 8.57 8.44 Hold Sum of parts
03/06/19 CIMB Dairy Farm 8.33 8.54 Hold PER23.5x FY20
03/20/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.41 8.25 Buy DCF
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.14 8.25 Buy
05/30/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.83 8.25 Neutral DCF
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.29 8.25 Neutral
08/02/19 DBS Vickers Dairy Farm 7.38 7.99 Hold Sum of parts
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.6 7.38 Neutral DCF
08/13/19 CIMB Dairy Farm 6.98 7.29 Hold PER23x CY20
09/23/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 6.65 6.63 Neutral DCF
11/29/19 CIMB Dairy Farm 5.93 5.4 Reduce PER22x CY20
12/11/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 5.9 6.63 Neutral

CSE Global - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.385 0.59 Buy
01/07/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.395 0.59 Buy DCF
01/11/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.395 0 Buy
01/15/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.405 0.56 Add PER13.5x FY20
01/22/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.43 0.57 Buy
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.455 0.59 Buy
02/22/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.465 0.6 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.465 0.6 Add PER13.5x FY19
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.465 0.62 Buy
03/05/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.505 0.58 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.54 0.62 Buy
03/26/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.54 0.61 Buy DCF
03/26/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.54 0.6 Add
04/02/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.545 0 Buy
05/07/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.475 0.61 Buy DCF, PER13.7x FY19
05/07/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.475 0 Buy
05/09/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.485 0.62 Buy
05/21/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.49 0.58 Buy Sum of parts, PER12.5x FY19, PB2.1x FY19
05/28/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.475 0.6 Add
06/06/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.48 0.61 Buy
08/15/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.435 0 Buy
08/16/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.44 0.61 Buy DCF
08/16/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.44 0.62 Buy
08/29/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.425 0.6 Add PER13.5x FY20
09/03/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.44 0 Buy
09/04/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.455 0.65 Buy PER15x FY19
09/04/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.455 0.69 Buy DCF, PER11.9x FY20
09/06/19 DBS Vickers CSE Global 0.47 0.65 Buy PER12x FY20
09/09/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.465 0.68 Add
09/10/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.46 0.64 Outperform Sum of parts, PER12x, PB2x
10/02/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.46 0.69 Buy
10/11/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.465 0.65 Buy
10/31/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.525 0.68 Buy
11/01/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.525 0.69 Buy DCF
11/07/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.54 0 Buy
11/08/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.53 0.7 Buy
11/08/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.53 0.61 Outperform Sum of parts
11/08/19 DBS Vickers CSE Global 0.53 0.69 Buy PER12x FY20
11/25/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.54 0.73 Add
12/02/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.525 0.61 Outperform Sum of parts
12/09/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.525 0 Buy
12/10/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.535 0.69 buy
12/27/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.545 0.73 Add
01/08/20 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.56 0.7 Buy
01/08/20 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.56 0.69 Buy

Cromwell Reit (EUR) - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/15/19 DBS Vickers Cromwell Reit (EUR) 0.49 0.59 Buy DCF
06/24/19 Lim & Tan Cromwell Reit (EUR) 0.505 0 Hold

Stock calls for 21 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/21/20 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.28 1.55 Buy
01/21/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.81 1.9 Buy DCF
01/21/20 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.81 1.59 Hold
01/21/20 Lim & Tan Mapletree Logistics 1.81 0 Hold
01/21/20 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.28 2.78 Add
01/21/20 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.28 1.4 Hold
01/21/20 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.48 1.45 Hold DCF, Buy @ $1.25

Monday, January 20, 2020

Comfortdelgro - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/25/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.24 2.56 Buy
02/01/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.33 2.74 Add DCF
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.36 2.59 Buy PER16.8x FY19
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.36 2.56 Buy
02/14/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.72 Accumulate DCF, PER18.5x FY19
02/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.66 Buy PER16.8x FY19
02/14/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.38 Hold
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.65 Buy
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.57 Buy DCF & PER16x FY19
02/19/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.41 2.77 Buy PER19x FY19
03/04/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.43 2.45 Hold DCF
03/08/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.41 2.74 Add DCF
03/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.54 2.77 Buy PER17.5x FY20
04/03/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.59 2.65 Take Profit Buy below $2.50
04/16/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.63 2.63 Hold DCF
04/30/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.69 2.88 Add DCF, PER18.1x FY20
05/08/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.61 2.88 Add DCF
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.65 Take Profit
05/15/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.69 Hold
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.57 2.77 Buy
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.59 Hold DCF, PER17.7x, Buy @ $2.40
05/16/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.4 Hold
05/16/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.52 2.77 Buy PER19x FY19
05/17/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.54 2.72 Accumulate DCF, PER16.8x FY19
05/28/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.45 2.82 Add
06/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.55 2.77 Buy
06/18/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.58 2.65 Neutral DCF & FCF
07/10/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.84 2.76 Hold DCF
07/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.84 3.08 Buy PER19.5x FY20
07/11/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.82 2.77 Neutral PER19x FY19
07/15/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.81 2.99 Accumulate DCF
07/22/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.8 2.65 Neutral DCF
08/14/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.62 2.78 Add DCF
08/14/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.62 2.55 Neutral DCF
08/14/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.62 2.91 Hold
08/14/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.62 2.99 Accumulate DCF, PER18.6x FY19
08/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.62 2.95 Buy
08/14/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.62 2.59 Hold
08/15/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.51 2.77 Neutral PER19x FY19
08/15/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.51 2.78 Add
09/04/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.46 2.59 Hold
09/19/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.45 2.55 Neutral DCF
10/02/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.41 2.76 Buy DCF
10/09/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.42 2.95 Buy
10/09/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.42 2.59 Hold
11/14/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.7 Buy DCF
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.38 Neutral DCF
11/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.27 Hold Buy @ $2
11/14/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.48 Hold Sum of parts, PER17.8x FY20
11/14/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.28 Hold DCF
11/20/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.36 2.61 Outperform PER19x FY20
11/21/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.35 2.56 Accumulate DCF, PER18.6x FY19
12/02/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.35 2.61 Outperform PER19x FY20
12/06/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.4 2.38 Neutral DCF

CNMC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 phillip CNMC 0.225 0.31 Buy DCF
03/12/19 Tayrona CNMC 0.21 0.31 Overweight
05/22/19 phillip CNMC 0.2 0.31 Buy DCF
08/19/19 phillip CNMC 0.3 0.33 Accumulate DCF

Clearbridge - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/01/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.142 0.28 Buy DCF
05/30/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.149 0.28 Buy DCF
09/06/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.142 0.26 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 20 January 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/20/20 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.741 0.95 Buy PER16x FY20
01/20/20 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.77 2.3 Buy PER18x FY20
01/20/20 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Buy Sum of parts
01/20/20 UOB Kay Hian Japfa 0.64 0.8 Buy
01/20/20 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Corp 6.84 7.61 Buy
01/20/20 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.24 1.37 Buy
01/20/20 Lim & Tan Mapletree North Asia 1.24 0 Hold
01/20/20 UOB Kay Hian Yangzijiang 1.16 1.46 Buy

Saturday, January 18, 2020

Baltic dry index - 754

Today, Friday, January 17 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 14 points, reaching 754 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 796


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.