Lippo Malls - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/20	CIMB	Lippo Malls	0.235	0.24	Hold	DDM

Stock calls for 24 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/24/20	Amfrasers	Comfortdelgro	2.02	2.28	Outperform	PER17.5x FY20
02/24/20	phillip	OCBC	11.02	12.1	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.11x FY20
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.02	11.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.03x FY20
02/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.02	12.68	Buy
02/24/20	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.815	0.93	Buy	DCF
02/24/20	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.815	0.95	Buy
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	2.01	2.33	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10x FY20
02/24/20	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.29	1.41	Accumulate	PER25x FY20
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.29	1.42	Buy	DCF & PER22x
02/24/20	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.29	1.45	Buy	PER25x FY20
02/24/20	Lim & Tan	ST Engineering	4.24	0	Hold
02/24/20	Phillip	Starhub	1.52	1.7	Accumlate	EV/Ebitda6.5x FY20
02/24/20	phillip	UOB	25.68	27.8	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.2x FY20
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.68	25.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
02/24/20	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.68	27.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	Venture	16.77	19.3	Buy	PER15x FY20
02/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	16.77	19.62	Buy
02/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.11	4.6	Buy
02/24/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.11	4.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PER17.1x FY20

Italy has fallen!

Italy is having a major virus outbreak now!

Italy will be severely affected by this outbreak because it is already facing a recession.  Furthermore, its government doesn't have a strong resolution like China to contain the outbreak. 

The global semiconductor industry will be impacted by the virus outbreak in Japan & South Korea.

It is pretty obvious that Japan and South Korea have an uncontrollable virus outbreak.

This outbreak will impact the semiconductor and memory (dram) chips sectors since these 2 countries are major players in the global technology industry.

Many global technology firms will be impacted by the shutdowns of semiconductor firms in Japan and South Korea.

Baltic dry index - 465

Today, Wednesday, February 19 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 15 points, reaching 465 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 791

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

What's wrong with Haidilao?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-citic-aibank-lend-haidilao-043207731.html

Haidilao has about 550 outlets in China and almost all the outlets are closed because of the virus outbreak.

The daily loss is around RMB$80m for all the outlet closures.

As long as the virus outbreak is not contained, taking on more debts will not resolve Haidilao's operational problems.  There is nothing Haidilao can do when there is no customer.

Lian Beng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	Lim & Tan	Lian Beng	0.515	0	Buy on weakness
01/14/20	Lim & Tan	Lian Beng	0.525	0	Buy

Lendlease Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/15/19	DIR	Lendlease Reit	0.94	1.01	outperform
12/06/19	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.92	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/12/20	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.91	1.05	Buy

KSH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/19	OCBC	KSH	0.52	0.81	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	KSH	0.535	0.81	Buy
05/31/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.45	0	Buy
06/03/19	OCBC	KSH	0.45	0	Cease coverage
11/12/19	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.465	0	Buy
01/28/20	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.415	0	Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 21 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/20	Tayrona	Asian Healthcare	0.192	0.305	Overweight	DDM, PER14.5x FY22
02/21/20	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.02	1.1	Hold	DDM
02/21/20	CIMB	Lippo Malls	0.235	0.24	Hold	DDM
02/21/20	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.52	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
02/21/20	Lim & Tan	Propnex	0.53	0.68	Buy
02/21/20	CIMB	Sasseur	0.82	0.85	Add
02/21/20	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.2	1.21	Hold	Buy @ $1.05
02/21/20	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.2	1.45	Buy
02/21/20	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.2	1.35	Hold	PB1.3x FY20
02/21/20	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.2	1.2	Hold
02/21/20	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.5	1.45	Hold	Buy @ $1.25
02/21/20	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.5	1.63	Neutral	DCF
02/21/20	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.5	1.72	Buy
02/21/20	CIMB	Starhub	1.5	1.8	Add	DCF
02/21/20	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.235	0.33	Buy	PER9.2x FY21
02/21/20	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.71	0.85	Buy
02/21/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.04	4.58	Add	Sum of parts
02/21/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.04	4.77	Buy	Sum of parts
02/21/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.04	4.75	Buy

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy. - Part 3

The economic fissures are starting to show up in China now.

Peking University's founder group is defaulting on its bonds but the government will save this company because it is a university-linked enterprise.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-markets-default/update-1-chinas-peking-founder-seeks-bond-repayment-delay-to-feb-2020-sources-idUSL4N28U2DQ

Many Chinese firms cannot pay their employees now because of their shutdowns.  Even if the government helps them with cheap loans, it doesn't solve the fundamental problem (no customer) and their debts will only pile up.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/19/chinese-companies-say-they-cant-afford-to-pay-workers-now.html

No monetary policy can help in this situation unless the virus outbreak is contained.  Monetary policies cannot override job insecurities.  When people are suffering from pay cuts and job losses, they will cut back on their spendings.  Nobody will buy a car when he doesn't have job security.  This is a fact of life.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinas-passenger-car-sales-tumble-041809740.html

We had stated in our previous post that China's consumption would fall into the abyss and monetary policies would not resolve this.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-can-stabilize-its-stock-markets.html

The US CDC has put Singapore on its community spread list.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3878832

The US CDC has put SG on its community spread list.

The list consists of the following countries:
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam

HK is on Watch Level 1 notice while China is on Warning Level 3 travel notice.

What does the community spread list imply?
This list is implying that these countries must detox their surroundings to curb the community spread.

We had accurately projected Japan's virus outbreak.  Since Japan is the 3rd largest economy, its failure to contain the virus outbreak will affect the global economy.  Furthermore, Japan is the host country for Olympic 2020.  If this major event is cancelled, it will hurt Japanese firms heavily as they have spent billions to prepare and build the infrastructures for the upcoming Olympics.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/red-alert-major-covid-19-virus-outbreak_19.html

Koufu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.63	0.8	Buy	PER17x FY19
03/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.67	0.95	Buy	PER18.1x FY19
03/08/19	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.67	0.85	Buy	PER18x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.805	0.95	Buy
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.77	0.8	Hold	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.75	0.95	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.675	0.95	Buy
06/28/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.675	0.85	Buy	PER17x FY19
07/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.72	0.95	Buy
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.71	0.95	Buy
08/08/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.71	0.88	Buy	PER17x FY20
10/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.72	0.95	Buy
10/01/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.72	0.88	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.755	0.88	Buy	PER17x FY20
11/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.77	0.95	Buy
12/11/19	SAC Capital	Koufu	0.765	0.87	Buy
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.775	0.88	Buy
02/12/20	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.725	0.83	Buy
02/13/20	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.735	0.84	Buy	PER17x FY20