Singapore Stock Exchange - Equity Investments

Monday, February 10, 2020

HRnetGroup - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.8	1.18	Buy	DCF
02/25/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.795	1.06	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	HRnetGroup	0.8	1.05	Buy	PER15x FY19, ex-cash
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.79	1.06	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.765	1.03	Add
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.77	1.06	Buy	DCF
05/13/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.77	0.94	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	HRnetGroup	0.76	0.85	Hold	PER16x FY19, ex-cash
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.71	0.94	Buy
06/13/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.72	1.01	Add	PER18x CY20
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.66	0.94	Buy	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.58	0.94	Buy
11/11/19	CIMB	HRnetGroup	0.64	0.83	Add
11/11/19	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.64	0.81	Buy	DCF

Hotel Properties - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	Hotel Properties	3.76	0	Hold
04/17/19	OCBC	Hotel Properties	3.88	4.74	Buy
07/15/19	OCBC	Hotel Properties	3.69	4.74	Buy

Hongkong Land - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.92	7.86	Buy
01/17/19	Citibank	Hongkong Land	6.92	5.9	Sell
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.77	8.02	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
03/01/19	Citibank	Hongkong Land	6.77	6.45	Sell
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.97	8.02	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
08/02/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.09	7.93	Buy
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	6.02	7.7	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
08/06/19	CIMB	Hongkong Land	5.74	7.4	Add
08/06/19	Citibank	Hongkong Land	5.74	5.85	Sell
12/12/19	DBS Vickers	Hongkong Land	5.47	6.64	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 10 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/10/20	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.52	1.57	Hold
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.52	1.8	Buy
02/10/20	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.27	1.37	Hold
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.86	1.2	Buy
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1.01	1.04	Buy
02/10/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.86	12.8	Buy
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	SIA	8.58	10.4	Buy
02/10/20	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	2.61	0	Hold
02/10/20	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.89	0.99	Hold	Sum of parts
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.89	0.85	Hold	PER17x FY21
02/10/20	OCBC	Singapore Post	0.89	0.96	Hold
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.32	3.8	Buy
02/10/20	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.32	3.32	Hold	DCF

Red alert - China has another bird flu outbreak in Sichuan after Hunan.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/china-reports-first-h5n6-bird-flu-in-sichuan-poultry-farm-ministry

China has another variant of the bird flu (H5N6) outbreak in Sichuan after Hunan's (H5N1).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/red-alert-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-in.html

omg! Travellers are shunning Singapore!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/coronavirus-qatar-kuwait-advise-citizens-to-avoid-travel-to-singapore

https://www.asiaone.com/asia/coronavirus-not-just-china-travellers-also-avoiding-singapore-and-japan

The middle east countries have issued a travel alert to Singapore and many travellers are shunning Singapore because Singapore is one of the top 3 infected countries. This will definitely impact the tourism and hospitality sectors.

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Coronavirus updates!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Singapore is still the 3rd most infected country.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

Guangzhou and Shenzhen are in lockdown now.

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/following-guangzhou-housing-estates-in-shenzhen-is-now-in-lockdown-to-prevent-virus-spread/

Omg! The situation in China is getting very bad.

More than 70 cities are in lockdown and more than 100m people are trapped in these Chinese cities.

However, the virus outbreak is not subsiding as more cities are in lockdown.

Baltic dry index - 431

Today, Thursday, February 06 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 1 point, reaching 431 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 790

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Bad news! China has started to reduce its imports.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-gas-buyer-cnooc-declares-064044988.html

The reduction in commodity imports will have a multiplier effect on other sectors. There is a significant reduction in China's consumption now and this will affect the global economy.

Friday, February 7, 2020

Coronavirus updates!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Singapore is one of the top 3 epicentres in the world and SG has exported the virus to Malaysia, South Korea and the UK.

Singapore raises risk alert to orange!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-raises-risk-alert-for-novel-coronavirus-to-orange

SG government raises risk alert to orange and advises organizers to cancel or defer non-essential large scale events.

Is SG airshow essential? of course not! However, our government deems it as essential and insists that it must carry on.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/major-summit-on-eve-of-singapore-airshow-canceled-on-coronavirus-fears

Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.71	0	Buy
04/26/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.8	0	Buy

Hong Leong Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/20	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Asia	0.625	0	Buy on weakness

Hock Lian Seng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	Hock Lian Seng	0.33	0	Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 7 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/20	OCBC	A-Reit	3.3	3.59	Buy
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.65	1.85	Buy
02/07/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.7	28.65	Buy
02/07/20	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.96	1.68	Buy	DCF
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.335	0.38	Buy	PER23x FY20
02/07/20	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	1.07	1.13	Add	DDM
02/07/20	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	1.07	1.15	Buy	DDM
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.2	Hold
02/07/20	Citi Research	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.8	Buy
02/07/20	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.13	Hold
02/07/20	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.17	Hold	Buy @ $2.05
02/07/20	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	0	Hold
02/07/20	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.68	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10x FY20

Singapore has exported coronavirus to the UK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/third-uk-coronavirus-patient-quarantine-214100995.html

Singapore is famous for the wrong reason again. SG has exported coronavirus to the UK.

It looks like SG is fast becoming a transmission hub because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia, South Korea, and the UK.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-regional-countries-are-starting-to.html

Thursday, February 6, 2020

The US is digging its own grave!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-denying-more-tariff-exemption-requests-11580736641

There is no doubt that China cannot fulfill its obligations under the Phase 1 deal.

The US is having a myopic view by not extending tariff exemption to US firms procuring China products. Why?

This denial will cause US prices to go up and create inflation when the economy is not doing well. Stagflation is a very difficult issue to resolve. The US is digging its own grave because it wants to reduce China's imports deliberately. The US firms have no choice but to increase prices or shift out for their own survival.

MIT: Recession is coming!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html

Why are we not surprised that a recession will be coming?

We've stated back in 2019 that March 2020 would be the end of a good period.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

China has acknowledged that it cannot fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-likely-considering-disaster-clause-060457370.html

Just as we projected in April 2019, China is unable to fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal now. Even without the virus outbreak, China also couldn't fulfill the deal because the set targets were unrealistic.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/many-analysts-are-casting-doubts-on.html

Therefore, US exports to China won't increase significantly for the next few months. It will be a blessing for the US if China doesn't reduce US imports due to poor local consumption.

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.51	0	Buy
03/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.5	2.79	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
04/01/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.52	0	Buy
06/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.38	2.79	Buy
11/19/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.34	0	Buy

HMI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	HMI	0.540	0.77	Buy
02/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.535	0.73	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	phillip	HMI	0.550	0.77	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.540	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY20
05/15/19	phillip	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	CIMB	HMI	0.530	0.68	Add	DCF
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.545	0.66	Buy	DCF
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.635	0.73	Buy	DCF
07/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.660	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
07/08/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.660	0.66	Hold	DCF, accept offer at $0.73
07/08/19	CIMB	HMI	0.660	0.68	Add	offer at $0.73
07/09/19	phillip	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/20/19	Lim & Tan	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/21/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.720	0.73	Hold	offer at $0.73

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.965	0.68	Sell	PB0.8x
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.05	1.12	Hold	PER10x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.14	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x
03/13/19	Lim & Tan	Hi-P	1.75	0	Avoid	overvalued
04/09/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.63	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
06/11/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.29	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	PER12x FY20
10/10/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.19	1.21	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
11/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.39	Hold
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.34	Sell	PB1.5x FY20

Stock calls for 6 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/06/20	Tayrona	Clearbridge	0.139	0.41	Overweight
02/06/20	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.14	2.45	Buy	DCF, PER18.1x FY20
02/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.78	2.1	Buy
02/06/20	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	1.04	1.12	Buy	DDM
02/06/20	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	1.04	1.15	Buy	DCF
02/06/20	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	1.04	0	Hold
02/06/20	CIMB	SATS	4.46	4.07	Reduce
02/06/20	CIMB	SIA	8.59	8.46	Hold

Total reported coronavirus cases in China.

The official figures from the Central Government might have underdeclared the true situation in China. Let's just take these with a heavy pinch of salt.

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Haw Par	12.39	0	Buy

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.069	0.08	Neutral
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.074	0.08	Neutral	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.066	0.08	Neutral	DCF