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Wednesday, February 26, 2020

The US yield curve inversion has happened again in 2020! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-us-yield-curve-inversion-has.html
The US risk-free rate (10-year yield) is at 1.33% which is lower than 1-m, 2-m, 3-m and 6-m.  Moreover, the risk-free rate is lower than the Fed's set rates of 1.5%-1.75%.

Why is the inversion a chaotic condition?  Please read our previous post below for the explanation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-us-treasurys-situation-is-getting.html
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Many western media like to paint a bad picture about Asia but statistics don't lie.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-contagion-spreads-beyond-china-023325202.html

Yes, economic contagion will spread beyond China to the rest of the world and not just Asia.  Europe and the US won't be spared too!

In fact, economic fissures have started to appear in the US due to the covid-19 outbreak.

The largest port in the US (Los Angeles) is projected to have a 25% drop in container volume in Feb 2020 due to the covid-19 outbreak.

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/port-los-angeles-expects-25-drop-feb-container-volumes-due-coronavirus

If the US GDP is still showing a good number, it will only mean that its imports are dropping more than its exports and this phenomenon is distorting the GDP growth.  Since import denotes future consumer demand, a declining import figure means that the local consumption is falling.  Please click on the link below for more explanation on GDP.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-upcoming-us-gdp-will-be-better.html
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Becareful! The stock markets are being artificially supported now! - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/becareful-stock-markets-are-being.html

We did warn about the stock markets in early February because our analysis showed that the virus outbreak won't reach its peak so fast.

After the 1000 points drop in DJIA recently, a few prominent analysts are also giving the same warning about the stock markets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/jim-cramer-buying-any-bounce-after-market-plunge-is-a-suckers-game.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-coronavirus-outbreak-increasingly-likely-and-could-drag-markets-jefferies-says.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/mohamed-el-erian-continues-to-warn-against-buying-coronavirus-dips.html
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Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Japan and Russia alleged that covid-19 originated in the US.

https://www.ccn.com/did-coronavirus-originate-in-america-chinese-media-pushes-conspiracy/

"Japan’s TV Asahi Corporation claims that some of the 16,000 Americans who died of influenza during the flu season may have unknowingly contracted the Wuhan coronavirus."

Some Japanese analysts used big data in the US to conclude that covid-19 originated in the US.  This was because the average death toll from flu in the US was about 8,000 but the 2020 death toll had reached more than 16,000 which was more than double the average.  Therefore, the Japanese analysts concluded that US doctors labelled the cause of death as influenza instead of covid-19.

Coincidentally, the Chinese scientists studied the covid-19 genome sequence and discovered that the Wuhan virus didn't contain H38 which was found in the US covid-19 case.  Therefore, Chinese scientists concluded that Wuhan virus was imported because H38 was an ancestral haplotype.

https://gnews.org/123001/

Russia also alleged that covid-19 came from the US.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/russia-linked-disinformation-campaign-fueling-covid-19-alarm-us-12461174

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Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/29/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.251.35Buy
01/29/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.251.45Buy
02/09/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.251.45Buy
04/03/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.311.45Buy
05/02/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.361.4Hold
05/02/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.361.6BuyDCF
07/19/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.451.65BuyDCF
07/30/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.381.43Hold
07/31/19CIMBMapletree North Asia1.421.5AddDDM
08/14/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.281.43Buy
09/30/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.331.65BuyDCF
10/29/19Lim & TanMapletree North Asia1.260Hold
10/30/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.271.6BuyDCF
10/31/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.271.43Buy
11/12/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.231.6Buy
12/05/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.161.41Buy
12/06/19DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.151.3BuyDCF
12/09/19OCBCMapletree North Asia1.181.36Buy
01/20/20OCBCMapletree North Asia1.241.37Buy
01/20/20Lim & TanMapletree North Asia1.240Hold
01/22/20CIMBMapletree North Asia1.241.31AddDDM
01/22/20DBS VickersMapletree North Asia1.241.35BuyDCF
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Mapletree Logistics - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19CIMBMapletree Logistics1.261.42AddDDM
01/11/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.331.39HoldDDM, Buy @ $1.26
01/22/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.341.4Buy
01/23/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.341.5Buy
01/23/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.341.3HoldDDM
01/23/19CIMBMapletree Logistics1.341.44AddDDM
02/08/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.391.5Buy
02/28/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.391.3Hold
03/07/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.421.5Buy
04/18/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.441.45Hold
04/29/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.481.4Hold
04/29/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.481.6Buy
04/29/19CIMBMapletree Logistics1.481.48Hold
04/30/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.471.38Hold
05/02/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.481.39HoldBuy @ $1.26
06/06/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.51.6Buy
07/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.611.85Buy
07/23/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.611.4Hold
07/24/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.611.55Hold
07/25/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.61.39HoldDDM
09/18/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.581.85Buy
10/22/19Kim EngMapletree Logistics1.661.6Hold
10/22/19OCBCMapletree Logistics1.661.41Hold
10/22/19CIMBMapletree Logistics1.661.55HoldDDM
11/07/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.691.9Buy
12/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.671.9Buy
01/21/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.811.9BuyDCF
01/21/20OCBCMapletree Logistics1.811.59Hold
01/21/20Lim & TanMapletree Logistics1.810Hold
01/22/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.821.9BuyDCF
01/22/20CIMBMapletree Logistics1.821.56HoldDDM
01/31/20CIMBMapletree Logistics1.851.59Hold
02/04/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics1.851.9Buy
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Mapletree Industrial - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/17/19OCBCMapletree Industrial1.972.04Hold
01/18/19CIMBMapletree Industrial1.992.1AddDDM
01/23/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial1.982.22BuyPER16.8x FY19
01/23/19DIRMapletree Industrial1.981.78Underperform
01/24/19PhillipMapletree Industrial1.962.03NeutralDDM, PB1.36x FY19
01/24/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial1.962.2BuyDDM
01/28/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.031.94HoldBuy @ $1.78
02/12/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.032.04Hold
02/15/19PhillipMapletree Industrial1.992.03Neutral
02/19/19OCBCMapletree Industrial1.991.98Hold
02/20/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial1.992.3Buy
04/03/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.122.3Buy
04/04/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.112.25BuyDDM
06/19/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.172.03Neutral
06/25/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.182.25Buy
07/11/19CIMBMapletree Industrial2.292.32AddDDM
07/11/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.292.4BuyDDM
07/11/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.292.5BuyDCF
07/22/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.312.03NeutralDDM, PB1.36x FY19
07/24/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.32.06Hold
07/24/19CIMBMapletree Industrial2.32.37Hold
07/25/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.252.29Hold
07/25/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.251.94Hold
08/26/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.282.03Neutral
09/13/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.32.58BuyDDM
09/17/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.332.29Hold
09/19/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.42.5Buy
09/19/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.42.55Buy
09/24/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.472.03Neutral
09/25/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.492.75Buy
09/26/19CIMBMapletree Industrial2.492.44AddDDM
10/10/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.52.69Buy
10/18/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.572.06Neutral
10/24/19OCBCMapletree Industrial2.522.55Hold
10/24/19UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.522.9Buy
10/24/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.522.75Buy
11/21/19Kim EngMapletree Industrial2.52.7Buy
11/25/19PhillipMapletree Industrial2.512.03Neutral
12/19/19DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.522.75Buy
01/22/20OCBCMapletree Industrial2.782.87Hold
01/22/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.783Buy
01/23/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.772.9Buy
02/04/20DBS VickersMapletree Industrial2.783Buy
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