Singapore Stock Exchange - Equity Investments

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.33	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.48	Buy	DDM & DCF
08/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy
09/11/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.29	0	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy
12/19/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.32	0	Buy
02/17/20	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.365	0	Buy
02/18/20	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.365	0.49	Buy

Stock calls for 4 March 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/20	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.4	0.78	Buy	RNAV (44% discount)
03/04/20	Phillip	Capitaland	3.58	4.2	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
03/04/20	Citibank	DBS	23.66	24.4	Hold
03/04/20	DMG & Partners	Hyphens Pharma	0.23	0.27	Buy	DCF
03/04/20	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.575	0.84	Buy	Sum of parts, PER11x
03/04/20	Phillip	JEP	0.205	0.25	Buy	PER14x FY20
03/04/20	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.89	2.08	Buy	DDM
03/04/20	Citibank	OCBC	10.65	11	Hold
03/04/20	CIMB	Sunningdale	1.2	1.1	Hold
03/04/20	Citibank	UOB	24.27	24.4	Hold

Hong Kong PMI plunges to record low but Hongkongers do not care.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/coronavirus-sends-hong-kong-feb-business-activity-plunging-to-record-low-pmi-2020-03-03

The HK PMI plunges to record low which is also indicating that HK will enter into a recession but Hongkongers do not care because they are still continuing their anti-government protests despite being able to receive HK$10,000 handout per head (above 18-year old) from the government.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3053025/hong-kong-protests-riot-police-fire-tear-gas-pepper-spray

How many times can the HK government give handouts to these people especially when HK is entering into a severe recession?

Goodbye HK! RIP!

Why was China not following the US in an emergency cut?

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-central-bank-keeps-short-term-rates-steady-despite-fed-easing-2020-03-03

A monetary policy such as an interest rate cut is meant to resolve demand-side problems by boosting consumer spendings and business investments. It is not meant to fix supply-side problems like supply disruption caused by an exogenous condition such as a virus outbreak.

This is the primary reason for China to stay put as it wants to monitor the work resumption situation first before taking any further stimulating policy.

Yes, the FED is wrong to do an inter-meeting emergency cut.

A China man is hinting that Singapore covid-19 cases are not true.

In this video, a China man is alleging that Singapore covid-19 cases are not reflective of the true situation. This was because a Wuhan whore came to Singapore and served more than 250 Singaporean men during the virus outbreak and she was diagnosed with covid-19 virus upon her return to China.

This is really bad news for SG if his allegation is true.

Why did the US Fed do emergency interest rates cut?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cuts-interest-rate-by-half-percentage-point-in-rare-inter-meeting-move-2020-03-03

Let's try to understand and analyze the monetary situation in the US prior to the emergency interest rates cut by the US Fed.

As usual, we will look at the 4 US rates.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/what-will-fed-do-for-upcoming-meeting.html (Previous post)

Iorr: 1.6% prior to the cut of 0.5% to 1.1% (Mar 2020).

The previous max limit was 1.75%. The current max limit is 1.25% after the cut.

The Iorr increased to 1.6% from 1.55% prior to the cut and it was within the limit set by the Fed.

Effr: 1.59% (increased from 1.55%). It is within the range of 1.5% to 1.75% set by the Fed.

Ioer: 1.6% prior to the cut of 0.5% to 1.1% (Mar 2020).

The Iorr increased to 1.6% from 1.55% prior to the cut and it was within the limit set by the Fed (1.5% to 1.75%).

On RRP: 1.5%, Min limit is 1.5% as set by the Fed.

Effr: 1.59% (prior to the emergency cut)
Ioer: 1.6% (prior to the emergency cut)

The Effr-Ioer spread was negligible which showed that there was no monetary tightening the US financial and monetary system and all the 4 rates were within the 1.5% to 1.75% set by the Fed.

Therefore, there is no valid reason for the US Fed to do emergency interest rates cut prior to the March 17-18 FED meeting.

What's the rationale behind this emergency cut?

Well, the only rationale left will be this is a pre-emptive move for something worse to come.

What's the biggest risk now? Covid-19 outbreak!

This emergency cut is just telling us that the covid-19 outbreak in the US is worse than what it seems and the US Fed can no longer wait until the March meeting to do the cut. We've been suspecting and doubting the real covid-19 situation in the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/why-are-global-scientists-claiming-now.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/signs-that-us-cannot-contain-covid-19.html

The US stock markets fell heavily because of this emergency cut. Consequently, we expect the US infection rate and death toll to increase significantly after the emergency cut because this is what the FED is insinuating.

The US death toll has increased to 9 as we speak. The fatality rate is 7.4% (9/122) in the US which is much higher than in China (3.7%).

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

US medical whistleblower complained about poor US medical protocols.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hhs-conducting-internal-investigation-whistleblower-complaint/story?id=69343176

The US will definitely have Covid-19 community spread because of its poor medical protocols and bad containment measures.

The US is still fudging its covid-19 statistics by not testing the sick.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/signs-that-us-cannot-contain-covid-19.html

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.67	0.85	Add	DDM
01/16/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.79	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.85	Buy	DCF
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.82	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.77	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.76	Take Profit	Accept offer
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.85	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.76	Take Profit
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.76	Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.5	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.6	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.52	0.6	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.57	Hold
05/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.5	0.57	Hold
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.59	Buy
10/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.61	Hold
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.6	Buy	DCF
11/19/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.535	Hold
11/19/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.57	Hold	DDM
12/04/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.56	0.6	Buy
02/03/20	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.55	Hold
02/03/20	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/13/20	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.525	0.53	Hold	DDM

Stock calls for 3 March 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/03/20	phillip	City Developments	9.74	11.89	Buy	RNAV (30% discount), PB0.98x FY20
03/03/20	DMG & Partners	Ireit	0.785	0.92	Buy	DDM
03/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.59	0.88	Buy	Sum of parts
03/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.71	0.81	Buy
03/03/20	Lim & Tan	Koufu	0.71	0	Hold
03/03/20	DBS Vickers	Sunpower	0.53	0.84	Buy

What's wrong with Singapore minister?

Singapore minister scolded Singaporeans for being a bunch of disgraceful idiots when they went on a panic buying spree.

What's my take on this remark?

Well, I believe this minister has lost touch with people on the ground and SG is the only place in the world whereby our minister will verbally abuse our citizens.

Did Singaporeans do something out of the ordinary? Hell No!

Panic buying occurs in many places and not just in SG. Just take a look below.

Indonesia
https://www.asiaone.com/asia/panic-buying-hits-jakarta-supermarkets-govt-announces-first-covid-19-cases

Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/german-supermarkets-report-coronavirus-panic-buying/a-52597644

Italy
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/europe/italy-coronavirus-outbreak-monday-intl/index.html

USA
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/02/coronavirus-toilet-paper-shortage-stores-selling-out/4930420002/

Did their governments scold their own citizens as disgraceful idiots? Hell No!

Signs that the US cannot contain covid-19 virus outbreak.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/who-has-raised-covid-19-outbreak-to.html

We had stated in late Feb 2020 that the US couldn't contain the covid-19 outbreak.

There are some signs emerging that prove that we're correct.

1. No testing of the sick.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-true-situation-of-covid-19-in-us.html

2. Poor containment measure.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/cdc-released-a-woman-in-texas-who-tested-positive-for-the-coronavirus-totally-unacceptable.html

3. Death toll is increasing rapidly. The death toll is 6 now as compared to 1 on 1 March.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-us-reports-its-1st-covid-19-death.html

Monday, March 2, 2020

The true situation of covid-19 in the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-new-york-city-doctor-has-to-plead-to-test-people.html

The US is not testing the sick for covid-19 virus as attested by the US doctor.

The covid-19 cases will spike significantly once the US conducts thorough testing like South Korea.

Furthermore, the US has 1st and 2nd-generation covid-19 viruses which are more potent.