Ascott Residence Trust (ART) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/09/19	Phillip	ART	1.18	1.36	Buy	DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy	DDM
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
05/06/19	Phillip	ART	1.21	1.36	Buy	DDM
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.27	1.46	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Buy
06/25/19	OCBC	ART	1.3	1.25	Hold
07/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.28	1.31	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.28	1.15	Hold	DDM
07/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.28	1.46	Buy
07/05/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
07/31/19	CIMB	ART	1.3	1.31	Hold	DDM
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
07/31/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.3	1.45	Buy
08/02/19	DIR	ART	1.32	1.34	Outperform
08/02/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.32	1.3	Hold
08/02/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate	DDM
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.3	1.54	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Accumulate
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
10/11/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.42	Accumulate
10/22/19	OCBC	ART	1.37	1.31	Hold
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.4	1.66	Buy	DDM
11/01/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.38	1.35	Hold	DDM
11/04/19	CIMB	ART	1.37	1.34	Hold
11/04/19	OCBC	ART	1.37	1.41	Hold
11/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.31	1.66	Buy	DDM
11/25/19	Phillip	ART	1.32	1.36	Accumulate
11/25/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.32	1.45	Buy
12/19/19	Kim Eng	ART	1.35	1.4	Hold	DDM
01/31/20	Kim Eng	ART	1.27	1.4	Hold	DDM
01/31/20	DBS Vickers	ART	1.27	1.5	Buy
02/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.26	1.57	Buy
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	ART	1.26	1.5	Buy
02/05/20	Phillip	ART	1.24	1.53	Buy	DDM
02/19/20	OCBC	ART	1.26	1.4	Buy
03/13/20	Phillip	ART	1	1.53	Accumulate
03/16/20	OCBC	ART	0.95	1.11	Buy
03/20/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.72	1.24	Buy	DDM

ARA Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.15	Buy
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.885	1.21	Buy	DDM
10/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.87	0.96	Outperform	DDM
11/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.86	1.16	Buy	DDM
11/07/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.86	0.99	Outperform	DDM
12/02/19	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.855	0.99	Outperform	DDM
02/20/20	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.86	0.95	Outperform
02/20/20	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.86	1.25	Buy
03/10/20	Amfrasers	ARA Hospitality	0.55	0.95	Outperform

APTV - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/16/19	Phillip	APTV	0.178	0.16	Reduce	EV/Ebitda11x
08/19/19	Phillip	APTV	0.17	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
11/12/19	Phillip	APTV	0.171	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda9.5x
02/12/20	Phillip	APTV	0.167	0.165	Neutral	EV/Ebitda10x

Stock calls for 6 April 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/06/20	Lim & Tan	BRC Asia	1.04	0	Hold
04/06/20	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.28	0.38	Add	After stock split (1 into 2)
04/06/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.31	4.7	Buy
04/06/20	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.196	0.21	Add
04/06/20	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.65	0.81	Buy
04/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.65	0.8	Buy	EV/Ebitda8.9x FY20
04/06/20	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.29	0	Hold
04/06/20	Lim & Tan	PanUnited	0.27	0	Hold
04/06/20	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.22	1.45	Buy
04/06/20	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.22	1.42	Add
04/06/20	DMG & Partners	Unusual	0.126	0.16	Buy	DCF
04/06/20	CIMB	Venture	13.46	17.66	Add

Why am I not interested in REITs and business trusts?

I don't like to invest in REITs and business trusts because of their business model.

The REITs and business trusts' business model relies heavily on the following:
1. The need to acquire another asset with a higher yield growth.
2. The need to increase existing rental yield by increasing rental incomes from existing tenants.
3. The asset acquisition is restricted by the loan to value (LTV) restriction.

The main disadvantages:
1. Typically, the tenants cannot survive in bad times.  The fixed rental contracts won't impede the retail store closures.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/sasa-cosmetics-to-close-all-retail-stores-in-singapore-12146180

https://www.dw.com/en/high-end-stores-in-hong-kong-face-closures-as-mainland-chinese-stay-away/a-51843374

2. Banks may recall the loans because of LTV restrictions due to falling valuations.

I've written something similar about this for the shipping trusts.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/03/qualitative-vs-quantitative-analysis.html

Many analysts touted the REITs and business trusts investments because of their stable yields but they disregard the risky business model.  The analysts that touted the shipping trusts in the past had gone into hiding after the collapse and nobody had promoted the shipping trusts again ever since.

The US dairy and agricultural farmers are dumping their products. Why?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dairy-farmers-dump-milk-100952217.html

The lockdowns have diminished consumer demands and disrupted logistics greatly for these dairy and agricultural farmers and they're left with no choice but to destroy their own products.  This is something that will happen during the depression but it is happening now.

What's going to happen when demands come back?

Food supplies will be in a shortage and prices will start to rise.  In a severe situation, hyperinflation will occur and this is my major concern as stated in my earlier post because other prices will rise rapidly due to the excessive monetary and fiscal policies.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/whats-next-after-covid-19-outbreak.html

Emerging markets are being downgraded by the US credit rating firms.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-puts-clutch-countries-junk-150422794.html

There are serious consequences to the credit rating downgrades.  The downgrades will make fundraising more difficult for these emerging markets, especially during a crisis, when they need to dole out stimulus packages to support their economies and citizens.

We've warned about these impending massive downgrades (countries and companies) in early March 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

If these emerging market countries had the foresight or read our post, they would have prepared for such circumstances in advance.