Stock calls for 31 May 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/31/21	Kim Eng	Frencken	1.77	2	Buy
05/31/21	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.395	0.37	Neutral
05/31/21	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.355	0	Accumulate
05/31/21	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.03	1.15	Add
05/31/21	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.062	0.067	Hold
05/31/21	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.22	Add	Sum of parts
05/31/21	Kim Eng	Sarine	0.605	0.7	Buy	DCF
05/31/21	OCBC	SATS	3.97	4.84	Buy
05/31/21	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	2.2	2.07	Neutral	PB1x FY21
05/31/21	Amfrasers	Sunpower	0.945	1.53	outperform	DCF
05/31/21	Kim Eng	Venture	19.26	22	Buy

Latest updates on breakthrough cases in the US.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/fully-vaccinated-people-catch-covid-161150229.html

The US has a few numbers of covid variants: UK variant, South African variant, California variant and Brazilian variant.

Quote:

"Fully vaccinated people infected with Covid variants may be likely to pass the virus on, researchers have said."

"The study also showed that the vaccinated individuals infected with Covid had high viral loads."

"vaccinated individuals who contracted the disease were also likely to be infected with variants."

Therefore, we cannot be complacent that being fully vaccinated will make us safe.

Syrian presidential election: Bashar al-Assad won by more than 95%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Syrian_presidential_election

The awakening of the Syrian citizens had just happened.  They had realized the mistake of their belief in the US democracy and they didn't want to be used as pawns by the US anymore.

Therefore, more than 95% of Syrians cast their votes for Assad whom the US was trying to dethrone for many years because hundreds of thousands of Syrians had died in the war for nothing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229

The Syrians had also realized that their lives were a lot better under President Assad but not in the name of the US democracy.

True democracy has arrived in Syria finally but it will take a long time to repair the damages caused by the US.  Nevertheless, this is a good start.

What's the relationships between the US rates and USD?

US 10-year inflation expectation (10-year breakeven inflation rate), US 10-year TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities and 10-year treasury yield:

The formula for 10-year breakeven inflation:

10-year breakeven inflation = 10-year treasury yield - 10-year TIPS

2.4 = 1.58 - (-0.82)

USD Index:

We will be able to establish the relationships between the US rate and USD from the 2 charts above.

Generally speaking, the 10-year US inflation expectation and treasury yield have an inverse relationship with the USD index.  This means that when the 10-year US inflation expectation and treasury yield move up, the USD index will move down and vice versa.

As for the 10-year TIPS, it has a positive correlation with the USD index.  This means that these two will move in sync with each other.

After we had determined the relationships between the US rates and the USD index, we could understand the rationale behind the recent USD depreciation.  Moreover, we could also understand the causes for the recent rises in the US inflation expectation from the formula.

Baltic dry index - 2596

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 457

 

Related stock: Sembcorp marine & Cosco.

OMG! We have a Vietnam variant now.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/vietnam-hybrid-covid-19-variants-from-india-uk-spread-outbreak-14909808

This looks bad because this Vietnam variant is a hybrid of the UK and Indian variants.  There is a new Thai variant spreading in the UK already and Vietnam has a new variant too.

We did warn about the hybrid between the variants yesterday.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/05/omg-there-is-thai-variant-now.html

China warns about a financial meltdown after FED's warning.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/chinas-banking-regulator-warns-of-global-asset-bubble-risks

Alright, we admit that it's our bad to spook the US FED and China because we're the first to warn about an impending financial crisis in 2022.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/05/hahaha-we-had-just-spooked-us-fed.html

This is not our first time to spook the US FED.  Our first time was on 7 March 2020 when we disclosed that the US FED was short of USD after performing our analysis.  Thereafter, the New York FED expanded its repo market fundings a few days (10 and 12 March 2020) later after our posting.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us_10.html

https://clicklancashire.com/2020/03/12/new-york-fed-boosts-daily-cash-injections-us-175b-daily.html

We really need to take the central banks' warning seriously because the largest and 2nd largest economies are warning about the same financial meltdown at around the same time.

Wilmar - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/12/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.54	4	Buy	Sum of parts
05/12/20	CIMB	Wilmar	3.54	4.58	Add	Sum of parts
05/13/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.82	4.83	Buy	Sum of parts
05/13/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.82	4	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.7x FY20
05/13/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.82	4.12	Buy
06/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.04	4.8	Buy
06/24/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.18	4.87	Buy	Sum of parts
07/02/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.1	4.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PER19.6x FY20
08/07/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.79	5.45	Buy	Sum of parts
08/07/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.79	5.53	Add	Sum of parts
08/13/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.79	5.24	Buy	DCF & PER20.1x
08/13/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.79	5.28	Buy	Sum of parts, PER20.2x FY20
08/14/20	OCBC	Wilmar	4.87	5.4	Buy
09/07/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.37	5.28	Buy
09/15/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.15	5.35	Buy	Sum of parts
09/17/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.3	5.53	Add	Sum of parts
10/01/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.4	5.24	Buy
10/08/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.58	5.45	Buy
10/16/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.36	5.35	Buy
10/16/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.36	5.6	Buy
11/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.04	5.35	Buy
11/03/20	OCBC	Wilmar	4.25	5.4	Buy
11/03/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.25	5.28	Buy	Sum of parts, PER17.8x FY21
11/03/20	Lim & Tan	Wilmar	4.25	0	Accumulate
11/03/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.25	5.54	Add
11/03/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.25	5.85	Buy
11/03/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.25	5.4	Buy
12/08/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.23	5.45	Add
01/07/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.95	6	Buy
01/13/21	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	5.08	6.4	Buy
01/14/21	Kim Eng	Wilmar	5.05	6.8	Buy	DCF & PER44x
01/21/21	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	5.34	6.67	Buy	Sum of parts, PER21x FY21
02/23/21	CIMB	Wilmar	5.51	6.15	Add	Sum of parts
02/23/21	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	5.51	6.4	Buy	PER26x FY21
02/23/21	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	5.51	6.67	Buy
02/23/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	5.51	6.3	Buy
02/24/21	OCBC	Wilmar	5.39	6.16	Buy
03/15/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	5.34	6.3	Buy
03/15/21	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	5.34	6.67	Buy
03/23/21	CIMB	Wilmar	5.39	6.15	Add	Sum of parts, PB1x
03/26/21	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	5.36	6.4	Buy
04/13/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	5.4	6.3	Buy
04/30/21	CIMB	Wilmar	5.3	6.15	Add	Sum of parts
04/30/21	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	5.3	6.4	Buy
05/04/21	CIMB	Wilmar	5.01	6.15	Add
05/04/21	OCBC	Wilmar	5.01	6.21	Buy
05/04/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	5.01	6.45	Buy