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Tuesday, June 19, 2018

US-China trade war is back! - Part 2

Trump has decided to impose a further 10% tariffs against $200b of China imports after the first salvo of $50b.

China will not back down but retaliate against the additional tariffs.  Trump has underestimated China's strong resolution and capabilities and this trade war will end very badly for the USA.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/06/us-china-trade-war-is-back.html

2 comments:

Eric Ho said...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/graphic-chinas-tariffs-u-oil-114854200.html

China's tariffs on US oil imports will be a major strike at Trump because China imports about 360,000bpd from the 2m bpd US exports.

Eric Ho said...

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-threatens-hit-china-tariffs-200-billion-goods-000818218--business.html

Many analysts think that China will run out of US products to tax because China only imports US$130b of US products. China has imposed tariffs for US$50b products from the USA. Therefore, it seems that China cannot match the US$200b import tariffs that the US is contemplating.

Many analysts have forgotten that the Chinese are brilliant people. The Chinese can terminate all the previous dealings that were signed with Trump when he first visited China. Then, the Chinese can target large US MNCs especially Boeing, Apple and Microsoft as these companies pose security concerns to China. The Chinese also can devalue its yuan to ward off the US tariff impacts but the US government has not much room to devalue its USD because this will make its monetary policies ineffective (interest rate hike).

Thereafter, the Chinese still can cause great financial turmoil in the US by downsizing its US treasury holdings. This downsizing will cause interest rates to spike in US and affect industries like properties, loans, etc.