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Saturday, November 9, 2019

Hong Kong is a financial hub because of China.

Many analysts don't understand the truth behind the financial hub status of HK.  HK is able to be a financial hub because China gives preferential treatment to HK as it regards HK as a long lost child.

China has to suppress Shenzhen's economic developments just to let HK continue to prosper. Why did I say this?  Shenzhen is a technological and logistics hub that has all the opportunities to overtake HK as a financial hub because technological titans like Alibaba and Tencent set up its HQs in Shenzhen.  In other words, Shenzhen is often touted as the Silicon Valley of China.  Furthermore, Shenzhen's GDP had already surpassed HK's.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/28/WS5c7720fda3106c65c34ebd70.html

However, many analysts think that HK is the financial conduit for China since many foreign funds get into China through HK.  Therefore, they think that China needs HK for foreign capital more than HK needs China for its financial hub status.

Let me debunk this perception.  The truth is China allows HK to be its financial conduit even though China has other alternatives.

China doesn't need HK for its foreign funding and it doesn't have any financial merit to use HK to get funding other than for the political reason to bolster HK's financial hub status and economic developments.

Ever since the EU adopted a negative yield policy, it would have more financial merit to get foreign funding in the EU than in HK because of the interest rate differentials between EU and HK.

A 1-year bond yield in HK is 2.9%.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/07/c_138536926.htm

A 20-year bond yield in the EU is 1.078% and the 7-year bond yield is only 0.197%.  Currently, China's MLF is 3.25%.  Therefore, China can make a risk-free gain of at least 3% by issuing a 7-year bond yield in the EU.  Furthermore, China's bonds are highly coveted in the EU now because they are highly oversubscribed.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201911/07/WS5dc35266a310cf3e35575d95.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-mlf/china-central-bank-cuts-medium-term-loan-rate-for-first-time-since-2016-as-growth-cools-idUSKBN1XF05K

The current generation in HK is trying to destroy HK's success and HK will lose its financial hub status and vibrancy when China cannot tolerate the irrational and illogical mindsets of the current Hongkongers.  HK should cherish what it has now and not regret its actions after losing all the privileges that China bestows to HK.

1 comment:

Eric Ho said...

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/singapores-temasek-considers-first-euro-bond-sale-since-2016

Even our Temasek wants to raise funds in the EU because of the interest rate differential between the EU and Asia.

Therefore, there is no financial merit to raise funds in HK by China other than for political considerations.