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Wednesday, November 27, 2019

What is Hong Kong's future now?

The last battlefield is about to end in HK.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039591/hong-kong-police-mull-entering-besieged-campus-warrant

We had stated that the besieged campus would be the last battlefield (see below post) because the HK protestors could not organize a large mass protest anymore.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/ordinary-hk-citizens-are-fighting-back.html

So what's next for HK?

The recent electoral victory by the HK pro-democracy supporters has created more uncertainties for HK because it may lose the support of China.

Many analysts still think that China needs HK for foreign capital since HK is a financial hub.  However, the truth is the exact opposite because China allows HK to be a financial hub instead.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

HK is a financial hub which is a symptom of China's political interest in HK.  An analogy to put this across more clearly is fever is the symptom of an infection and fever doesn't cause infection but infection causes fever to surface.  Therefore, HK's financial hub is a "fever" symptom.

In retrospect, China doesn't need HK as a springboard for foreign entities to inject funds into China.  Just look at our Suzhou Industrial park (SIP) project.  Did SG develop the SIP via HK? No!

How about our recent tie-up with Chongqing?  We also didn't go through HK.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3026767/singapore-and-chongqing-seal-deals-trade-telecoms-and-ties

Tesla also didn't go through HK to set up its factory in China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_3

Does China need HK to raise funds? No!  China can go to the EU to raise funds easily because its bonds are well received in the EU.  Therefore, HK doesn't have any financial merit for China other than for political interest.

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