How important is Hong Kong to China?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-finance-explainer/explainer-how-important-is-hong-kong-to-china-as-a-free-finance-hub-idUSKBN2350VO

Many analysts painted the picture that at least 60% of FDI in China came from HK and without HK, China would lose all these foreign direct investments (FDIs).  However, the truth is the exact opposite from these analyses.  Why?

Many US firms established their regional HQs or HQs in HK because of the US special trading status bestowed upon HK since the US wanted to make use of the special political status (1 country-2 systems) that HK possessed.  The HK tax-free status between the US and HK had given the US firms the advantages to import and export to China through HK without any tax.  Therefore, many US firms avoided direct investments in China by harnessing this special trading status in HK and invest in China indirectly through HK.  This basic understanding helps to explain the high HK's FDI in China. 

This special US-HK trading status also gives US the leverage to embark on a US-China trade war because the US can exclude the HK trading figures from the US-China trade deficit.  In the last decade, the US-HK trade surplus had reached about US$300B which had benefitted the US.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/amcham-sad-day-hong-kong-trump-strips-special-treatment-12786452

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-did-us-fudge-us-china-trade-data.html

The time has come for China to close this loophole in the US-China trading relationship.  HK was able to enjoy this preferential treatment because China had always treated HK as a long-lost child.  Recently, China had decided to impose its national securities law (NSL) on HK so that it could get rid of US influences in HK to restore peace and order in HK.  Yes, there will be protests in the next 1-2 years but peace and order will return after China executes the NSL against some defiant Hongkongers as a show of force.  This NSL will be good for HK in the long run.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

The US firms will lose a lot and China will gain more leverage against the US because the US firms will have to invest directly in China instead since there is no added advantage by using HK after the US cancels the special US-HK trading status.  The US has to weigh the pros and cons now with regards to this cancellation.

Many US firms will not choose to give up the China market since there are a lot of monies to be made and their stock prices will drop significantly without China revenues.  Therefore, China will gain more direct FDIs but will diminish its HK's FDIs in the end which will not result in a significant fall in the total China FDI figure.  The only victim in this episode will be HK since HK deserves it with its misjudgement (anti-China stance).

Baltic dry index - 504

Today, Friday, May 29 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 15 points, reaching 504 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 301

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

OCBC Bank - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/02/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	13.7	Buy
04/02/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	12.9	Buy
04/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.72	12	Hold
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.77	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/23/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.78	10.73	Hold
04/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.83	14.12	Buy	GGM, PB1.39x FY19
05/03/19	phillip	OCBC	12.04	13.7	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.31	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20
05/10/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.31	12	Hold
05/13/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.39	13	Outperform
05/13/19	phillip	OCBC	11.39	12.68	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	14.62	Buy	GGM, PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.26x
05/22/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.09	11.07	Hold
06/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.57	12.59	Hold
06/06/19	phillip	OCBC	10.63	12.7	Accumulate
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.8	14.62	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.28	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.4	14.62	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.59	11.07	Hold
07/03/19	phillip	OCBC	11.54	12.7	Accumulate
07/08/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.39	12.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.64	11.5	Hold
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.42	0	Buy on weakness
08/02/19	Citibank	OCBC	11.42	12.3	Hold
08/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	12.5	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.21	11.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.21	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.08	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.05	Hold	DDM
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.69	12.53	Hold
09/02/19	phillip	OCBC	10.65	12.32	Accumulate	GGM
09/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.71	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
09/26/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.77	11.05	Neutral
09/26/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.77	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
09/27/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.82	12.53	Hold
10/04/19	phillip	OCBC	10.71	12.32	Accumulate
10/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.86	14.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
10/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Hold
11/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.07	12.32	Accumulate
11/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.07	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.08x FY20
11/05/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.07	0	Buy
11/05/19	Citibank	OCBC	11.07	11	Hold
11/05/19	Jefferies	OCBC	11.07	11.5	Hold
11/06/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.08	12.4	Outperform	PB
11/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.26	Hold	DDM
11/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.08	14.45	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
11/06/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.08	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
11/07/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	11.7	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.1x
12/02/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.78	11.94	Hold
12/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.26	Hold
12/03/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.75	11.5	Neutral
12/03/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.75	11.5	Hold
12/04/19	phillip	OCBC	10.68	11.7	Accumulate
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.45	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	OCBC	11	11.94	Hold
02/03/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.83	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY20
02/10/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.86	12.8	Buy
02/19/20	Macquarie	OCBC	10.97	12.4	Outperform
02/24/20	phillip	OCBC	11.02	12.1	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.11x FY20
02/24/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.02	11.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.03x FY20
02/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.02	12.68	Buy
02/24/20	Citibank	OCBC	11.02	11.6	Hold
02/24/20	Jefferies	OCBC	11.02	11	Hold
02/25/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.92	11.57	Hold
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.6	11.5	Hold
03/04/20	Citibank	OCBC	10.65	11	Hold
03/05/20	Macquarie	OCBC	10.55	12.4	Outperform
03/05/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	10.55	11	Hold	GGM, PB1x FY20
03/05/20	CIMB	OCBC	10.55	11.05	Hold
03/09/20	Citibank	OCBC	10.21	8.85	Sell
03/10/20	phillip	OCBC	9.52	12.1	Accumulate
03/11/20	Jefferies	OCBC	9.72	11	Buy
03/17/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.7	9.6	Buy	GGM, PB0.89x FY20
03/17/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.7	8.6	Hold	GGM, PB0.8x FY20
03/17/20	Jefferies	OCBC	8.7	10	Buy
03/19/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.49	10.5	Outperform
03/20/20	CIMB	OCBC	8.08	9.04	Add
03/31/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.52	9.6	Neutral
04/01/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.54	8.6	Hold
04/01/20	Jefferies	OCBC	8.54	10	Buy
04/01/20	Citibank	OCBC	8.54	8.85	Sell
04/08/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	8.93	10.32	Buy	DDM
04/13/20	phillip	OCBC	8.95	12.1	Accumulate
04/22/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.7	9.78	Buy
04/22/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.7	9	Neutral	GGM, PB0.84x FY20
04/23/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.62	7.9	Hold	GGM, PB0.7x FY21
04/24/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.65	10	Outperform
05/11/20	phillip	OCBC	8.88	9.14	Accumlate	GGM, PB0.85x
05/11/20	DMG & Partners	OCBC	8.88	8.7	Hold	GGM, PB0.81x FY20
05/11/20	Kim Eng	OCBC	8.88	9.46	Hold	DDM
05/11/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.88	7.9	Hold	GGM, PB0.7x FY21
05/11/20	Lim & Tan	OCBC	8.88	0	Accumlate
05/11/20	CIMB	OCBC	8.88	8.37	Hold
05/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.88	9.78	Buy	PB0.8x FY20
05/13/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.89	9.67	Outperform	PB

Netlink - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.83	0.92	Buy
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy
05/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.825	0.92	Buy	DCF
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.87	Buy
05/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.835	0.95	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.835	0.9	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.835	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
05/15/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.835	0.94	Buy	DDM
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.825	0.9	Buy
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.835	0.97	Buy
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.89	0.94	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.885	0.94	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.865	0.95	Buy	DCF
10/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.9	1.01	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.91	0.93	Accumulate
10/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.9	1.03	Buy	DDM
10/18/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.91	0.95	Buy
11/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.935	1.01	Buy	DCF
11/04/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.935	0.99	Accumulate	DCF
11/05/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.955	1.03	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.955	1.04	Buy	DCF
11/05/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.955	1.06	Buy
01/03/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.94	1.04	Buy	DCF
01/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	1	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1.01	1.04	Buy	DCF
02/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	1	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/12/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1	1.05	Buy	DCF
02/14/20	Phillip	Netlink	1.01	0.99	Neutral	DCF
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.98	1.05	Buy
03/23/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.9	0.95	Buy	DCF
05/08/20	DBS Vickers	Netlink	1	1.02	Hold	DCF
05/11/20	phillip	Netlink	0.985	1.03	Accumlate	DCF
05/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.985	1.08	Buy

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.081	0.095	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.076	0.1	Buy
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.065	0.08	Buy
01/09/20	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.08	0.093	Buy	DCF
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.073	0.082	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 29 May 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.35	0.6	Buy
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	1.93	2.15	Buy	PB1x
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.199	0.49	Buy	PER7x
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	City Developments	7.67	9.5	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	5.97	6.8	Buy
05/29/20	CIMB	Keppel Corp	5.97	7.48	Add	Sum of parts
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Corp	5.97	7.3	Buy
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	1.66	2.25	Buy
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.52	1.72	Buy	DCF
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	Singtel	2.51	3.09	Buy
05/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.51	2.8	Buy	DCF
05/29/20	DMG & Partners	Singtel	2.51	3.4	Buy	Sum of parts
05/29/20	Lim & Tan	Singtel	2.51	2.45	Hold
05/29/20	OCBC	Singtel	2.51	3.24	Buy
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.825	0.8	Hold
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.46	0.5	Hold
05/29/20	Kim Eng	Top Glove	4.62	6.52	Buy	Ringgit target $20, PER23x CY21

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/31/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.24	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.245	0.26	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
08/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.197	0.29	Buy	Sum of parts
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG1x
10/09/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.215	0.32	Add	Sum of parts
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.285	0.3	Hold	Sum of parts, PER12.8x FY20
03/25/20	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.124	0.107	Fully Valued

Mindchamps - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.655	0.87	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.66	0.83	Buy	DCF
08/27/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.525	0.83	Buy
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.46	0.87	Buy
03/02/20	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.395	0.37	Neutral	DCF

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.63	1.63	Neutral	PER15x FY20
09/03/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.59	1.6	Neutral	PER15x FY20
11/05/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.9	1.6	Reduce
02/12/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.88	1.6	Reduce	PER15x FY20
04/27/20	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.64	1.6	Neutral
04/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Micro-Mechanics	1.7	1.82	Hold	Buy @ $1.55

Stock calls for 28 May 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/28/20	Macquarie	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.22	1.45	Outperform
05/28/20	Lim & Tan	City Developments	7.68	11.2	Buy
05/28/20	Macquarie	Dairy Farm	4.26	5.8	Outperform
05/28/20	Macquarie	Keppel Corp	6.03	7	Outperform
05/28/20	Macquarie	SGX	8.75	11	Outperform
05/28/20	DMG & Partners	SGX	8.75	8.6	Hold	PER24x FY21
05/28/20	DBS Vickers	SGX	8.75	7.4	Fully Valued	DDM
05/28/20	CIMB	SGX	8.75	8	Reduce
05/28/20	OCBC	SGX	8.75	8	Sell	PER21.6x FY21
05/28/20	Jefferies	SGX	8.75	8.5	Hold	PER23.5x
05/28/20	Lim & Tan	SGX	8.75	0	Buy on weakness
05/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	Unusual	0.135	0.123	Hold	Buy @ $0.111
05/28/20	Macquarie	UOL	6.71	10.15	Outperform

Memtech - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
05/15/19	CIMB	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
05/15/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.09	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35

Mapletree North Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.31	1.45	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.45	1.65	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.38	1.43	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.42	1.5	Add	DDM
08/14/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.28	1.43	Buy
09/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.33	1.65	Buy	DCF
10/29/19	Lim & Tan	Mapletree North Asia	1.26	0	Hold
10/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF
10/31/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.43	Buy
11/12/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.23	1.6	Buy
12/05/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.16	1.41	Buy
12/06/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.15	1.3	Buy	DCF
12/09/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.18	1.36	Buy
01/20/20	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	1.37	Buy
01/20/20	Lim & Tan	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	0	Hold
01/22/20	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	1.31	Add	DDM
01/22/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.24	1.35	Buy	DCF
04/03/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	0.78	1.05	Buy	DCF
04/03/20	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	0.78	1.3	Add
05/04/20	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	0.945	1.26	Add
05/04/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	0.945	1.05	Buy	DCF