The US 2 and 10 years treasury yield spread is narrowing and is on the verge to invert.

The US treasury yield spread (2 & 10 years) is approaching zero and negative territory.

What does this mean?

Historically, whenever there is a yield inversion between 2 and 10 years treasury yield, a recession will happen within 2 years after the yield inversion.

Therefore, the earliest recession year will be in 2023 if this yield inversion happens now.