The recession probability is over 90% (98.12%) now.
How real is the recession risk?
Let's take a look at the US imports.
Export can be defined as "yesterday" demand and import will be defined as "tomorrow" demand. As the US imports have slowed down, this decline can be interpreted as a reduction in consumption. The sky-high inflation has taken a toll on the US economy and the Fed rate hikes will expedite the demand destruction.
Simultaneously, the Fed rate hikes have caused mortgage rates to spike close to 7%.
Consequently, the rising mortgage rates have caused a deterioration in housing affordability which may cause a housing crisis (recession risk).
No comments:
Post a Comment