US core PCE inflation shows that the US won't achieve its 2% inflation target in 2023.

Sunday, July 2, 2023

US core PCE inflation shows that the US won't achieve its 2% inflation target in 2023.

US PCE inflation (yoy): 3.8%

US core PCE inflation (yoy): 4.6%

US core PCE (m-o-m): 0.3%

The average month-on-month core PCE was 0.4% for the past 5 months and the full year core PCE would be {[(1.004)^12]-1}*100% = 4.9%. Thus, it is impossible for the US to achieve its 2% inflation target in 2023 unless there is a significant reduction in inflation which is caused by a recession.

1 comment:

Unknown said...: No worries .... in the 1980s they took 15 years from 1981 to 1995 to go from 9.7% core PCE to 2% and with a double-dip recessions, plus another -35% crash in 1987.

The stock market went up 600% in those 15 years anyway .... more important to make money lol.; July 2, 2023 at 2:51 AM