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Sunday, September 3, 2023

3 important economic statistics for the past week.

The job gap has narrowed to 3m from 4m which means the labour market is softening.  This is to be expected because of depleting pandemic household savings and front-loading of purchases.

US GDP growth (2nd Qtr): 2.1%

The US GDP growth only increased marginally in the 2nd quarter and the first half of 2023 was estimated to be better than the latter half because household savings would not be available to boost the GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2023.  Thus, the US GDP growth for 2023 would not exceed 2.5% under the existing conditions.

The core PCE had increased marginally to 4.2%.  We had stated previously that the US inflation would remain relatively stable at this level (see below).

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