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Saturday, September 30, 2023

Latest economic updates for the past week.

 Q2 US GDP growth: 2.1%

As stated previously, the US GDP growth would deteriorate in the 2nd half of 2023 compared to the 1st half.

Where's the proof?

The US consumer credit had peaked and would decline as it was unsustainable over a long period.  A recession would follow whenever the consumer credit was in a decline as shown on the chart below.

The consumer credit had started to decline (below 0%) as shown on the chart below.
As stated previously, there won't be any significant fall in the US inflation anymore.

The latest PCE chart corroborated our prognosis for the US inflation.

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