The US is already in a recession on the main street.

The main street is feeling the brunt of a US recession in 2023 but the main economic indicators are still not reflecting the reality of the situation.  This is because the main economic indicators are usually lagging and will only reflect the reality many months later.  However, some precursory economic indicators (eg, PMI) are already projecting a US recession.

Previously, we had projected a US recession in 2023 but the main economic indicators had not reflected this insofar.  We believe that the main economic indicators will only reflect a US recession in 2024.