The US ISM PMI index remained in a contractionary phase (46.7) for 13 months already.

The US ISM PMI had remained at 46.7.  Let's take a look at what happened here.

Let's calculate 2 unknown sub-indices (Estimated new local orders & local raw materials) first.

* Estimated new local orders=New orders % change (+2.8) - New export order % change (-3.4) = +6.2%

* Estimated local raw materials=Inventories % change (+1.5) - Imports % change (-1.7) = +3.2%

As we can see from the above, the ISM PMI (46.7) is being supported by the new local orders (est'd 6.2%) but it is still in a contractionary phase.  We don't believe this is sustainable as the US retail sales have started to decline.