The US ISM PMI has been contracting for 14 months already.

The US ISM PMI was at 47.4 in December 2023 .  Let's take a look at what happened here.

Let's calculate 2 unknown sub-indices (Estimated new local orders & local raw materials) first.

* Estimated new local orders=New orders % change (-1.2) - New export order % change (+3.9) = -5.1%

* Estimated local raw materials=Inventories % change (-0.5) - Imports % change (+0.2) = -0.7%

As we can see from the above, the ISM PMI (47.4) remained in the contractionary zone because of the weak new local orders (estimated -5.1%) and this showed the US consumers had been cutting back on their spendings in December 2023.  The bleak consumption outlook caused the producers to let the customers' inventories (48.1, -2.7) to be depleted and the backlog of orders (45.3, +6) to increase.  Simultaneously, the weak consumption also caused the prices (45.2, -4.7) to fall.