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Saturday, March 2, 2024

US ISM PMI had continued to contract in February 2024.

 PMI: 47.8

PMI process chart:
From the PMI process chart, we could see that there was a significant drop in new local order (est'd -9.7) which caused the new order to drop to 49.2 (-3.3).  This drop in local consumption corroborated with our earlier warning for the waning US consumption (see below).

The US PMI had been contracting for the the past 16 months and this would definitely impact the US economy.  The recession risk will get higher as the PMI contracts over a longer period.

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