The US can't hide its slowing economy soon!

When the US Fed cut its rates by 50bps recently, we could tell that something was wrong with the US economy because the economic data didn't warrant such a massive cut unless the US had been fudging its data.  Thereafter, the US economic has been projected to slow down significantly in Q4 2024 and 2025.

Currently, the market is projecting another 50bps cut in November because the US is expected to announce poorer economic data.

The freight index has been trending up as shown below but the US has trimmed its consumption and net export growth instead.  These contradictory reductions by the US mean that the US is slowing down despite flourishing international trades.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2024/09/baltic-dry-index-2110.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2024/09/us-q2-2024-gdp-update-finalized.html

Is a US recession coming?  Let's take a look at the yield curve inversions again.

The 10y-2y treasury yield has shown a disinversion already but the 10y-3m treasury yield has not.

Historically, the US recession will appear when the 10y-3m treasury yield curve has shown a disinversion.

Let's wait to see how this will pan out.