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Tuesday, January 6, 2026

The ISM PMI has been in contractionary zone for the past 10 months.

Missing parameter:

Estimated Local New Orders: New orders - New Export Orders = 0.3 - (+0.6) = -0.3

Estimated Local Material: Inventories - Imports = (-3.7) - (-4.3) = +0.6

The new orders (47.7, +0.3) increased marginally because of a slight pullback by the local new orders (est'd -0.3) even though the new export orders increased to 46.8 (+0.6).

In view of the bearish outlook, the producers decreased their production (51, -0.4) and caused the backlog of orders (45.8, +1.8) to increase and customers' inventories (43.3, -1.4) to be depleted.  The decline in production also caused declines in inventories and imports.

The employment (44.9, +0.9) rebounded because the producers didn't increase their employment in the previous month.

As a result, the PMI decreased to 47.9 (-0.3) and this indicated continual economic weaknesses.



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