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Friday, January 16, 2026

Will China intervene in an Iran-US war?

Many experts have expressed their views that China won't intervene in the Iran-US war because it doesn't want to offend the US.  However, we beg to differ on this common view because Iran is a chokepoint for China.

Let's start our analysis now.

The US has a grandeur plan to contain China by trying to cut off the link between Europe and China.  How does the US intend to do that?  The US can achieve its objective by cutting off the BRI routes in Afghan, Iraq and Iran.  China can't use Iraq and Afghan routes for its BRI already and Iran is the only option left.

The above BRI will be destroyed if Iran is under the US control and China economic growth will be contained.  Thus, Iran has a strategic importance to China because of the BRI and Iranian oil exports (about 90% oil exports to China).

Furthermore, Iran is a member in BRICS and SCO.  If China doesn't protect its member in BRICS and SCO, there is no strategic benefit in joining these 2 groups and BRICS and SCO will lose their political powers.

In conclusion, China has more to lose if China doesn't intervene in the Iran-US war.

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