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Friday, May 29, 2026

US GDP forecast is being revised down.

Let's break down the GDP to see what had changed from the previous quarter.
GDP growth = G + I + C + NE
Q1 GDP (1st estimate) = 0.73 + 1.48 + 1.08 + (-1.3) = 1.99 (2)
Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) = 0.73 + 1.19 + 0.95 + (-1.25) = 1.62 (1.6)

The latest GDP estimate showed that there were further slowdown in investment (I) and consumption (C) that caused the GDP to be revised down.  Futhermore, the core PCE price was higher than the previous estimate which meant that the Iran war had continued to affect the US inflation.

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