Stock calls for 22 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.93	Neutral	DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.86	Neutral	DDM
04/22/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.88	Hold
04/22/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.03	Add	DDM
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.93	0	Hold
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	27.4	30.3	Buy	GGM
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.85	1.85	Hold
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.295	0.21	Sell
04/22/19	OCBC	Keppel Corp	6.74	7.83	Buy
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Corp	6.74	0	Hold
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.77	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/22/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.63	0.62	Hold
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	Soilbuild Reit	0.63	0.63	Hold	DCF

US will not give exemptions to small nations for importing Iran's oil.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/ap-sources-us-sanction-nations-041412403.html

The US is bullying the small nations by imposing its internal laws on external small countries.  Look like the US is adamant to create inflation in the 2nd half of 2019.  The oil price has reacted instantaneously and transportation (sea, land & air) costs will follow suit.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/global-inflation-or-deflation-part-3.html

Baltic dry index - 790

Today, Thursday, April 18 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 23 points, reaching 790 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

====================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 1012

US Rig Count is down 10 rigs from last week to 1,012, with oil rigs down 8 to 825, gas rigs down 2 to 187, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

US Rig Count is down 1 rig from last year’s count of 1,013, with oil rigs up 5, gas rigs down 5, and miscellaneous rigs down 1.

The US Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 23 and up 5 rigs year-over-year.

Canada Rig Count unchanged from last week at 66, with oil rigs up 1 to 19 and gas rigs down 1 to 47.

Canada Rig Count is down 27 rigs from last year’s count of 93, with oil rigs down 19 and gas rigs down 8.

=======================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US economy has hit a soft patch.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-u-economy-hits-soft-010000733.html

The US manufacturing and freight data have corroborated the previous PMI data that the US economy is slowing down.

We did a comprehensive analysis of the US PMI data below.  The March headline PMI number was up but the sub-indexes were telling us otherwise.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	0.835	0.98	Buy	DCF

ART - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	OCBC	ART	1.1	1.18	Buy
01/10/19	CIMB	ART	1.1	1.13	Hold	DDM
01/11/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.11	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	OCBC	ART	1.19	1.25	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.19	1.35	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	OCBC	ART	1.14	1.25	Buy
03/29/19	Lim & Tan	ART	1.18	0	Hold	BV
04/09/19	Phillip	ART	1.18	1.36	Buy	DDM, PB0.94x FY19
04/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy	DDM
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold

APTV - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	Phillip	APTV	0.13	0.14	Accumulate

Stock calls for 18 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/18/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.7	Hold
04/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.59	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.37x FY19
04/18/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.12	Neutral	DDM
04/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.38	Buy	DCF
04/18/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.24	0	Hold
04/18/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.44	1.45	Hold
04/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.46	2.86	Buy	Sum of parts
04/18/19	OCBC	SPH	2.46	2.55	Hold
04/18/19	phillip	UOB	26.87	32.02	Buy	GGM

APAC Realty - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.5	0.72	Buy
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.5	0.56	Hold
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.57	0.72	Buy	DCF
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.57	0.7	Buy	PER12x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.615	0.72	Buy	RNAV

Amara - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Amara	0.46	0.88	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

AEM - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	Kim Eng	AEM	0.905	1.21	Buy	PB2.9x FY19/20, EV/Ebitda5.2x FY20
02/26/19	Kim Eng	AEM	1.05	1.24	Buy	PB2.8x FY19/20
02/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.05	1.11	Hold	PER10x FY20

Stock calls for 17 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/17/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.32	10.68	Buy
04/17/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.635	0.9	Buy	PER10x FY20
04/17/19	OCBC	Hotel Properties	3.88	4.74	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	KSH	0.535	0.81	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	OUE	1.79	2.32	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.4	0.41	Hold
04/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	Top Glove	1.48	1.34	Hold	Ringgit target $4.10, Buy @ $3.70
04/17/19	OCBC	Wing Tai	2.06	2.41	Buy
04/17/19	Phillip	Y Venture	0.156	0.16	Cease Coverage

Singapore Nodx contracted 11.7% in March 2019.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-march-exports-post-worst-fall-in-2-years-11452728

Year on year changes (YOY):

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-nodx-gained-49-in-february.html

China is a consuming economy, not an exporting economy anymore.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-economic-growth-steady-amid-021015173.html

China is able to boost its GDP by increasing its local consumption with stimulus measures.

Therefore, a US-China trade war has limited impact on China but significant impacts in other exporting countries.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-slowdown-in-chinas-imports-will.html

Japan's slowdown continues.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-exports-slump-weak-china-demand-heaping-pressure-010749155--finance.html

Japan's slowdown is impacted by China.  We had posted this recently.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-slowdown-in-chinas-imports-will.html

China is right to ban ractopamine for health safety.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-eyes-u-poultry-pork-170054363.html

The US is trying to make China lift the ractopamine ban but China won't accede to the request because it is a health hazard.

The US uses ractopamine for its pork and beef exports.  This is also the reason I avoid US pork and beef in Singapore.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/11/what-do-you-get-for-being-staunch-usa.html

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.55	0.61	Hold
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.565	0.61	Buy
04/04/19	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.59	0.72	Buy

A-Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.57	2.9	Buy
01/04/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.57	2.78	Accumulate
01/17/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.74	2.95	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.71	3.01	Buy
01/31/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.72	2.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB1.34x FY19
01/31/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.72	2.83	Add	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	A-Reit	2.72	2.64	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	2.72	2.95	Buy
02/15/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.75	2.88	Accumulate
02/28/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.81	2.95	Buy
03/07/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	2.83	2.9	Neutral	DDM
03/07/19	CIMB	A-Reit	2.83	2.83	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	2.93	3.1	Buy

800Super - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/13/19	Phillip	800Super	0.685	0	Cease Coverage	DCF

Stock calls for 16 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/16/19	CLSA	Best World	1.77	1.75	Sell	Up from $1.29
04/16/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.63	2.63	Hold	DCF
04/16/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	1.64	Buy
04/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel DC Reit	1.49	0	Hold
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.48	0.58	Buy	DDM
04/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.06	0.95	Sell	DCF
04/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.88	10.1	Hold	Sum of parts
04/16/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.36	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

Mahathir is deceiving his Malaysians. - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mahathir-says-chinese-contractor-help-043007017.html

The ECRL cost was inflated by Najib previously because he wanted to sift off the funding.  Mahathir is able to cut Najib and his cronies off the funding by cutting the ECRL distance and reducing the land acquisition cost.  The "new" ECRL will not go through Gombak now and the land acquisition cost is greatly reduced.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/mahathir-is-deceiving-its-malaysians.html

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/east-coast-rail-link-proceed-malaysia-china-slash-costs-11438428

Yuuzoo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/20/18	Lim & Tan	Yuuzoo	0.038	0	Sell/Avoid

Yongnam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/05/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.335	0.53	Add	PB0.8x FY18
02/02/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.35	0.53	Add	PB0.8x FY18
03/02/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.3	0.57	Add	PB0.8x FY19
04/10/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.29	0.57	Add	PB0.8x FY19
05/16/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.31	0.56	Add	PB0.8x FY19
08/15/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.255	0.45	Add	PB0.8x FY19
11/05/18	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.45	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/04/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.4	Add	PB0.8x FY19
01/07/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.183	0.41	Add	PB0.8x FY19
03/01/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.173	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19
04/05/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19

Yoma - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/18	OCBC	Yoma	0.54	0.55	Hold
02/07/18	OCBC	Yoma	0.48	0.55	Buy
03/07/18	OCBC	Yoma	0.42	0.51	Buy	Sum of parts
03/07/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.42	0.75	Buy
05/03/18	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.43	0.66	Buy	Sum of parts (15% discount)
05/31/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.4	0.58	Buy	RNAV (40% discount)
06/29/18	CIMB	Yoma	0.365	0.62	Not Rated	Bloomberg consensus
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.35	0.4	Buy	RNAV (60% discount)
12/27/18	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.33	0.57	Buy	Sum of parts (20% discount)
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	Yoma	0.345	0.4	Buy
04/11/19	DMG & Partners	Yoma	0.32	0.57	Add	Sum of parts (20% discount)

Stock calls for 15 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/15/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
04/15/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
04/15/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.6	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
04/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.5x
04/15/19	CIMB	Keppel Corp	6.62	8.41	Add	Sum of parts
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.31	5.8	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.49	2.85	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	ST Engineering	3.82	4.25	Buy

World economic outlook growth projection by IMF.

2019 will be a bad year for the global economies as projected by IMF.

EU has drafted EU$20B tariffs for the US!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-eu-draws-list-20-150936044.html

In a tit-for-tat move, the EU has drafted EU$20B tariffs for the US.

How can the global economies be good when the US is starting trade wars against China and the EU?

Many countries are fearful of the upcoming US-China trade deal.

Why are many countries fearful of the upcoming US-China trade deal?

Well, many countries are worried that the upcoming US-China trade deal will give preferential access to US companies and undercut other non-US MNCs.  These other countries are also worried that China will cut back on their exports since China is compelled to buy more US goods.  If China is committed to the new US-China trade deal, it will have to replace other imports with US imports.  Who will be badly affected then?  It will be those US allies that stupidly supported the US.  Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc will be badly affected by the new US-China trade deal because China will replace theirs with US imports.

Therefore, we must not think that the US-China trade war doesn't affect us.  It will affect us either directly or indirectly.

Baltic dry index - 726

Today, Friday, April 12 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 2 points, reaching 726 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 1022

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The slowdown in China's imports will affect global economies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade/china-march-exports-rebound-to-five-month-high-but-imports-fall-more-than-expected-idUSKCN1RO0Q7

China's exports are growing but imports are shrinking very sharply.  This doesn't bode well for the global economies particularly for export-oriented countries like Singapore.

China's consumption constitutes close to 80% of its GDP and China is no longer an export-oriented country.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2018/0919/c90000-9501725.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2017/05/china-slowdown-is-bane-for-world.html

Therefore, any reduction in local consumption has a significant impact on China and the world as China contributes 1/3 of global growth.

Yanlord - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/18	Citibank	Yanlord	1.72	1.75	Neutral	RNAV (50% discount)
05/21/18	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.67	2.27	Buy	PER6x FY18
06/06/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.7	2.24	Buy	PER6x
08/16/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.51	2.13	Buy	PER5.5x
08/20/18	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.48	2.17	Buy	PER5.5x FY18/19
11/14/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.28	2.13	Buy
11/21/18	OCBC	Yanlord	1.26	2.04	Buy	PEG
11/30/18	DBS Vickers	Yanlord	1.3	1.62	Buy	PER4.7x FY19
03/01/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.39	1.75	Buy	PER5x
04/12/19	OCBC	Yanlord	1.47	1.75	Buy

Yangzijiang - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/02/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.45	1.49	Hold	Sum of parts
03/02/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.45	1.51	Hold	Sum of parts
03/05/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.41	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.3x
03/16/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.3	1.34	Hold	Sum of parts
04/30/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.16	1.82	Buy
04/30/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.16	1.27	Hold	Sum of parts
04/30/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.16	1.22	Hold
05/02/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.17	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
06/06/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.02	1.27	Add	Sum of parts
06/12/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	0.995	1.18	Buy	Sum of parts
06/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.96	1.3	Buy
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	0.885	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.25x
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.885	1.3	Buy
07/11/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	0.91	1.27	Add	Sum of parts
08/08/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	0.91	1.29	Add	Sum of parts
08/08/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	0.91	1.23	Buy
08/10/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	0.99	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
09/26/18	JP Morgan	Yangzijiang	1.17	1.4	Overweight
10/03/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.26	1.32	Hold
10/15/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.27	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1.3x
10/19/18	JP Morgan	Yangzijiang	1.37	1.4	Neutral
10/30/18	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.21	1.25	Buy
11/08/18	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.29	1.41	Buy
11/08/18	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.29	1.37	Add	Sum of parts
11/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.32	1.36	Hold	PB0.9x FY19
11/12/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.3	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts
12/21/18	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.21	1.82	Buy
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.42	1.82	Buy
03/01/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.43	1.61	Add	Sum of parts
03/04/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.44	Hold
03/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.39	Hold	PB0.9x FY19, Buy @ $1.25
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.44	1.82	buy	Sum of parts, PB1.1x