Stock calls for 3 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
05/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.54	4.04	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.54	3.56	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.61	1.85	Add	DDM
05/03/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.36	1.6	Buy
05/03/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.17	1.43	Buy	FCFE
05/03/19	Jefferies	City Developments	9	12	Buy	PB0.84x
05/03/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.85	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.77	Hold	DCF
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.605	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.61	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/03/19	phillip	OCBC	12.04	13.7	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.69	2.21	Add
05/03/19	phillip	UOB	27.75	32.5	Buy
05/03/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	27.75	30.8	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	27.75	29.2	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	UOB	27.75	29	Add	GGM
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	17.4	19.01	Hold	Buy @ $17

New York Rhodium Group clears China for debt trap diplomacy.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/data-doesn-t-support-belt-and-road-debt-trap-claims-20190502-p51jhx.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

The New York Rhodium group has vindicated China for using debt trap diplomacy because of the data that doesn't support the US proclamation.

This group has proven that the US is just doing fearmongering for its own political benefits.

The Australia National University senior lecturer also said that the debt trap diplomacy claim was never credible.

The US is a real trouble maker in this world!

Cromwell Reit (EUR) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/15/19	DBS Vickers	Cromwell Reit (EUR)	0.49	0.59	Buy	DCF

Comfortdelgro - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.24	2.56	Buy
02/01/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.33	2.74	Add	DCF
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.36	2.59	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.36	2.56	Buy
02/14/19	phillip	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.72	Accumulate	DCF, PER18.5x FY19
02/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.66	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
02/14/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.38	Hold
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.65	Buy
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.57	Buy	DCF & PER16x FY19
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Comfortdelgro	2.41	2.77	Buy	PER19x FY19
03/04/19	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	2.43	2.45	Hold	DCF
03/08/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.41	2.74	Add	DCF
03/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.54	2.77	Buy	PER17.5x FY20
04/03/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.59	2.65	Take Profit	Buy below $2.50
04/16/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.63	2.63	Hold	DCF
04/30/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.69	2.88	Add	DCF, PER18.1x FY20

CNMC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	phillip	CNMC	0.225	0.31	Buy	DCF
03/12/19	Tayrona	CNMC	0.21	0.31	Overweight

Stock calls for 2 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3	2.88	Neutral
05/02/19	CIMB	A-Reit	3	2.87	Hold	DDM
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3	3.2	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy
05/02/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.53	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.53	0	Hold
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.77	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.54	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.85	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.67	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
05/02/19	Amfrasers	DBS	28.25	27.7	Hold
05/02/19	Jefferies	DBS	28.25	31.5	Buy	PER13.1x FY20
05/02/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.21	Hold	DDM
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	35.52	39.1	Buy	Sum of parts (16% discount)
05/02/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.51	1.62	Buy
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0.96	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.26
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.63	1.63	Neutral	PER15x FY20
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.081	0.095	Buy
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.09	Neutral	DCF
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.03	1.3	Buy	PER25x
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.985	1.7	Buy
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	16.97	0	Buy on weakness
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.64	3.9	Buy
05/02/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.45	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts

China has blocked Canadian porks.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-canada-farm-minister-informed-beijing-blocked-two-231058707--finance.html

This Canadian pork blockage is not surprising as China will be importing more US porks under the China-US trade deal.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/canada-is-just-plain-stupid.html

The US FED has stayed put but something is amiss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-181509741.html

The US FED has left the interest rates unchanged but something is amiss because the ioer (2.35% now) is being lowered and the effr is still rising (2.45% now).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/will-us-fed-cut-interest-rate-in-may.html

The premium difference between the effr and ioer is showing that the monetary tightening has worsened as the money supply is still shrinking.  In other words, the US Fed is still continuing its quantitative tapering discreetly.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell in April.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.8 in April 2019 from 55.3 in March, below market expectations of 55. The latest reading pointed to the weakest growth in factory activity since October 2016, amid slower increases in new orders, production and employment. 

A slowdown was seen in new orders (51.7 from 57.4 in March), production (52.3 from 55.8) and employment (52.4 from 57.5). Also, new export orders fell into contraction territory (49.5 from 51.7) and prices eased (50 from 54.3). Meanwhile, inventories (52.9 from 51.8), backlogs of orders (53.9 from 50.4), and supplier deliveries (54.6 from 54.2) rose at a faster pace. 

The weak US April PMI will cause the next GDP number to weaken since the PMI is a leading indicator.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

In our previous analysis above, we had expected the employment sub-index to fall and the April PMI vindicated our view.

The weak PMI will force the US to strike a China-US trade deal as soon as possible or else the US economy will deteriorate quickly.

Omg! Trump wants the Fed to cut the rate by 1%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-quantitative-tightening-fed-fomc-balance-sheet-tweet-222837013.html

This is ridiculous unless the US economy is in the danger of collapsing.  Is Trump privy to some economic information that is unavailable to the public and it is telling him that the US economy is collapsing? or the US has been fudging its economic data?

We still believe that the US Fed will not cut the rate on 1 May 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/will-us-fed-cut-interest-rate-in-may.html

Clearbridge - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/19	phillip	Clearbridge	0.142	0.28	Buy	DCF

City Developments - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	7.94	0	Buy
01/17/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.85	10.65	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
02/11/19	Jefferies	City Developments	9.16	12	Buy
02/22/19	phillip	City Developments	9.54	11.82	Accumulate	RNAV (30% discount)
02/22/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.54	10.68	Buy
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.54	9.2	Neutral	RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	City Developments	9.54	9.5	Hold	RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19	CIMB	City Developments	9.54	10.66	Add
03/21/19	Lim & Tan	City Developments	9.02	0	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	City Developments	8.87	10.66	Add
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.31	9.2	Neutral
04/17/19	OCBC	City Developments	9.32	10.68	Buy

Chip Eng Seng - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Chip Eng Seng	0.705	0.75	Hold

Stock calls for 30 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/30/19	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.01	3.2	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	OCBC	A-Reit	3.01	2.74	Hold
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.01	2.9	Neutral	DDM
04/30/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.69	2.88	Add	DCF, PER18.1x FY20
04/30/19	Macquarie	DBS	28.4	27	Neutral
04/30/19	phillip	DBS	28.4	29	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19	OCBC	DBS	28.4	29.18	Hold	Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19	CIMB	DBS	28.4	30	Add	GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	28.4	30.8	Buy	PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	28.4	30	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.2	Hold
04/30/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.24	0.22	Hold
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.24	0.26	Hold
04/30/19	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	1.12	1.05	Hold	DDM
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Manulife US Reit	0.88	0.97	Buy	DDM
04/30/19	OCBC	Mapletree Logistics	1.47	1.38	Hold
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.07	1.02	Neutral
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.23	Buy	DCF & PER21x
04/30/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.1	Hold	PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.24	Buy	DCF
04/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhill	0.755	0.9	Buy	DDM

Will the US Fed cut the interest rate in May 2019?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-may-end-seeing-1995-190000337.html

Some people are hoping and predicting a fed rate cut in May 2019 but I don't share the same sentiment as them because the EFFR has been rising to 2.44% now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

When the EFFR(2.44%) is greater than IOER(2.4%), it becomes a monetary tightening situation because the excess funds are moving into EFFR which are usually used to invest in treasuries.  Therefore, there is lesser money available in commercial markets like mortgage and commercial loans.  This is the rationale behind the rise in USD as the money supply is shrinking.

If the US Fed were to cut the interest rate, it would cause the USD to depreciate and that would contradict the rise in EFFR which was causing the rise in USD.  By cutting the rate now will send a bewildering signal to the market and also highlighting the contradictory stances between the US Fed and Trump.  This will also send a signal that Trump has intervened in the independent Fed again which is bad for the US economy.

Canada is just plain stupid.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/canadian-farm-exports-run-into-chinese-wall-amid-diplomatic-dispute-11487824

When China buys more from the US, it has to cut back from other countries especially from unfriendly ones like Canada.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/many-countries-are-fearful-of-upcoming.html

We've stated this in our previous post above.

China Sunsine - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.2	1.68	Buy
03/04/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.26	1.55	Buy	FCFE

China Everbright - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/21/19	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.345	0.475	Buy	PER15x FY19
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.35	0.49	Buy
02/25/19	phillip	China Everbright	0.355	0.48	Buy	PER8.9x FY19

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.5	Neutral
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.85	Buy	PER12x FY19
03/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1
03/05/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.3	1.67	Buy	PER11.5x FY19
03/27/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x, PB1.2x, Ev/Ebitda6.5x
04/02/19	CIMB	China Aviation Oil	1.38	1.7	Add	PER11x FY20
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.43	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.39	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1

Stock calls for 29 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.27	1.4	Buy	DDM
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	China Aviation Oil	1.39	1.25	Hold	PER8.4x FY19, Buy @ $1.1
04/29/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	27.41	0	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.71	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.4	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.6	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.48	Hold
04/29/19	phillip	SGX	7.4	8.09	Accumulate	PER21.4x
04/29/19	CIMB	SGX	7.4	7.9	Add
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.11	Hold
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy	PER5x FY19
04/29/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.75	0.78	Buy	DDM
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Starhill	0.75	0.8	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Starhill	0.75	0.77	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Starhill	0.75	0.7	Hold
04/29/19	DMG & Partners	Talkmed	0.51	0.62	Buy	DCF
04/29/19	CIMB	Venture	17.52	17.88	Hold	PER12.5x
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Venture	17.52	19.74	Hold	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19

The US economy is going downhill despite the good GDP number.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rpt-column-u-economy-loses-000000823.html

Don't be fooled by the headline number because the demon is hidden in the details.

Our previous analysis of the PMI had already shown that the US economy was slowing down.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

Local consumption makes up about 70% of US GDP and the latest GDP number is showing that consumer spending is slowing down rapidly.  The sharp fall in import is also raising some concerns and this is also reflected in the previous PMI number.

It looks like the US must end the US-China trade war soon or the bad economic growth will surface in the GDP headline number.

Baltic dry index - 889

Today, Friday, April 26 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 20 points, reaching 889 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

==================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 991

The rig count in the Permian Basin was down by three this week, the latest count Friday by Baker Hughes shows, with 460 rigs active in the region. A year ago, 452 rigs were active in the region.

Nationally, the oil and gas rig count is down 21 from last week at 991 rigs. A year ago, 1021 rigs were active. The count shows that 805 rigs sought oil, down twenty from the previous week, and 186 explored for natural gas, down one from the previous week.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

==========================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Centurion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.405	0.41	Neutral	DCF
03/06/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.425	0.41	Neutral	DCF

CEI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/13/19	CIMB	CEI	0.945	0.97	Hold	PER10x FY20

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.46	1.8	Buy	DDM
01/02/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.46	1.63	Add
01/17/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.75	Buy
01/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.56	1.83	Buy
01/31/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.64	Add	DDM
01/31/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy	DDM
01/31/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.56	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.85	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.62	1.8	Add
02/28/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.64	1.8	Add
04/04/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.65	1.85	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.67	1.8	Buy

Stock calls for 26 April 2016

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	CIMB	AEM	1.16	1.4	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	1.62	0	Cease Coverage	Suspension
04/26/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
04/26/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.21	Neutral	DDM
04/26/19	CIMB	Capitamall Trust	2.39	2.39	Hold	DDM
04/26/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.51	1.5	Hold
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.43	1.6	Buy
04/26/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.67	Hold
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.7	Buy
04/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.31	Neutral	DDM
04/26/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.215	Accumulate
04/26/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.215	0.3	Buy
04/26/19	Lim & Tan	Hong Leong Finance	2.8	0	Buy
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.865	0.92	Buy
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	0.865	1	Buy
04/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	0.96	1.33	Buy
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
04/26/19	OCBC	SGX	7.26	7.6	Hold	PER21x FY20
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.26	7.05	Hold	DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19	Kim Eng	SGX	7.26	8.79	Buy	PER23x FY19
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.89	4.15	Buy
04/26/19	OCBC	Venture	19.29	20.89	Buy	PER15x FY19/20
04/26/19	DMG & Partners	Venture	19.29	19	Neutral
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Venture	19.29	21.7	Buy	PER15.8x FY19

What's happening to the USD now? Why is it rising again?

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usd-is-likely-to-depreciate-soon-why.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/usa-is-gearing-up-for-usd-depreciation.html

The USD was supposed to be depreciating as Trump wanted it to be lower.  The USD did depreciate for a short while before rebounding again.  What the hell was going on?  Well, the US FED is causing the USD to appreciate with its rising rates.  Therefore, it looks like the FED and Trump are at loggerheads now.

The USD index is around 98 now compared to below 96 in March 2019.

The USD value is affected by interest rates.  The US Fed manages the US economy by setting an interest rate bandwidth which is currently at 2.25-2.5%.

There are 4 interest rates that we need to familiarize ourselves with:
Interest on required reserves (iorr) : 2.4% now (Max limit is 2.5% and this sets the upper bandwidth)

The bank required capital ratio fund has to be deposited with the Fed which will yield a FED interest rate of 2.4%.

Effective federal funds rate (effr): 2.44% now (This has been rising in April 2019).

The US bank has to pay 2.44% interest rate to the Fed when it wants to borrow money.  The Fed has been raising this interest rate in April 2019 which is signifying a reluctance to flood the monetary system with cheap money.  This is the proximate cause of the recent USD appreciation because the Fed is sending a subtle message which is the exact opposite of Trump's intention.

Interest rate on excess reserves (ioer) : 2.4% now (This is what the Fed will pay when the US bank deposits its excess cash with the Fed).

Overnight reverse repurchase rate (on rrp) : 2.25% now (This is basically a 1-day sell and buy-back scheme conducted by the Fed and this sets the lower bandwidth).  In short, this is the Fed 1-day IOU and the Fed pays 2.25% interest rate.

As we can see, there is a premium difference between the effr (2.44%) and ioer (2.4%).  This premium difference is depicting a monetary tightening condition which also helps to explain the USD appreciation.

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 3

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-slashes-forecasts-amid-decline-204616825.html

https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/apr/23/texas-instruments-revenue-profit-beat-estimates-shares-rise/

The semiconductor titans are reporting weaker sales forecasts due to poor China demand.  Therefore, 2019 won't be a bumper year for the semiconductor industry.  However, Micron Tech is still being extremely optimistic and fudging its numbers when it has more than 50% China sales.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-stock-rallies-second-half-2019-recovery/

We've stated the global semiconductor slowdown in October 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html