SIA - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.5	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
01/24/19	CIMB	SIA	9.5	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	CIMB	SIA	9.87	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.87	11	Buy	PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.87	0	Hold
02/18/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.76	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19	OCBC	SIA	9.76	10.71	Buy
03/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.83	10.25	Hold
03/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.83	10.1	Hold	Buy @ $9
04/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.88	10.1	Hold	Sum of parts
04/16/19	OCBC	SIA	9.88	11.02	Buy
05/17/19	CIMB	SIA	9.4	10.14	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19	OCBC	SIA	9.3	11.02	Buy
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.3	9.6	Hold	Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.3	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.17	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60

SHS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	phillip	SHS	0.197	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x FY19
03/08/19	phillip	SHS	0.191	0.194	Neutral	PB0.7x
05/21/19	phillip	SHS	0.174	0	Cease coverage

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.06	1.27	Buy
01/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.07	1.13	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.15	Hold
02/27/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.25	Buy	DCF
02/27/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.19	Buy
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.25	Buy	PER25x FY19
02/27/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.22	Add	PER22.2x FY20
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.11	Hold
03/04/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.3	Accumulate	PER25x
03/05/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.09	1.24	Buy
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.08	1.25	Buy	DCF
03/19/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.08	0.95	Sell	DCF, PER19.5x FY19
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy
04/16/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.06	0.95	Sell	DCF
04/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.11	Hold	Buy @ $1
04/29/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy	PER5x FY19
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.23	Buy	DCF & PER21x
04/30/19	CIMB	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.1	Hold	PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.24	Buy	DCF
04/30/19	OCBC	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.19	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.03	1.3	Buy	PER25x
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.23	Buy
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.1	1.25	Buy
06/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.09	0.95	Sell	DCF

Stock calls for 21 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Capitamall Trust	2.58	2.65	Hold
06/21/19	Lim & Tan	Del Monte	0.12	0	Buy
06/21/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	10.66	11.8	Buy	DDM
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.55	2.72	Buy
06/21/19	DMG & Partners	Jumbo	0.38	0.47	Buy	DCF, PER23x FY19
06/21/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Corp	6.57	9	Buy
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Commercial	2.04	2.22	Buy

Traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut in July 2019

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/traders-are-pricing-in-a-100percent-chance-of-at-least-one-fed-rate-cut-in-july.html

We had expected a rate cut to happen after analzying the US interest rates and the economic situation (see below) in the US.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-true-picture-of-us-economy.html

Look like the US Fed will reduce its interest rates in July 2019 as expected by the US traders.

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/21/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	11.04	16.4	Buy
03/22/19	OCBC	Shangri-La Asia	11.18	16.16	Buy

SGX - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	phillip	SGX	7.15	9.01	Buy
01/25/19	CIMB	SGX	7.5	7.9	Add	PER22.1x FY20
01/25/19	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.5	8.2	Buy	PER22x FY20
01/28/19	phillip	SGX	7.57	8.36	Buy	PER23.2x FY19
01/28/19	OCBC	SGX	7.57	7.98	Buy	PER22x F19/20
02/22/19	Citibank	SGX	7.87	7.8	Hold
03/12/19	Citibank	SGX	7.46	7	Sell
03/14/19	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.26	7.05	Hold	DDM, PER20x CY20
03/19/19	phillip	SGX	7.31	8.17	Accumulate	PER23.2x
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.42	8.1	Buy	PER23x FY20
04/26/19	OCBC	SGX	7.26	7.6	Hold	PER21x FY20
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	SGX	7.26	7.05	Hold	DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19	Kim Eng	SGX	7.26	8.79	Buy	PER23x FY19
04/29/19	phillip	SGX	7.4	8.09	Accumulate	PER21.4x
04/29/19	CIMB	SGX	7.4	7.9	Add	PER22.1x FY20

Sembcorp Marine - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	DIR	Sembcorp Marine	1.62	1.62	Hold	Cut from $1.78, PB1.8x FY19
01/22/19	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.66	2.5	Buy
02/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.6	1.83	Hold	PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.50
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.59	2.4	Buy	PB2.1x FY19
02/21/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.68	2.21	Add	PB2x CY19
02/21/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.68	1.77	Hold
02/21/19	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.68	1.76	Neutral	PB1.6x
02/21/19	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	1.68	0	Hold
02/26/19	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.72	2.48	Buy
04/09/19	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.7	2.48	Buy
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.7	2.4	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.69	2.21	Add	PB2x
05/06/19	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	1.76	Neutral	PB1.6x
05/06/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	1.77	Hold
05/06/19	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	2.48	Buy
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	2.4	Buy	PB2.1x FY19
05/30/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.45	1.6	Hold	PB1.45x
06/04/19	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.39	1.99	Buy	PB1.8x FY20

Stock calls for 20 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/20/19	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.92	1.9	Neutral	DDM
06/20/19	OCBC	UOB	26.14	28.9	Buy

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 4

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-in-april-skid-to-nearly-two-year-low-idUSKCN1TI2RA

China had sold US treasuries again.  Why?

We've stated the rationale behind the selling in our previous posts.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_18.html

The US treasuries sold off was not a retaliation against the US but to defend the RMB.  This is the reason the RMB is unable to breach the $7 mark.

What are the repercussions for selling the US treasuries?

China will have to convert the USD abroad into RMB and remit it back to China. This will cause an influx of RMB in China and increase the money supply.  As idling money will depreciate in value over time, the China central bank will make good use of the excess money by reducing the bank's required reserve ratio to stimulate its local consumption.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html

Thereafter, the excess money will flow into the stock markets, property markets, etc and boost inflation.  Consequently, inflation will help to reduce the debt burdens in China.

Why is inflation able to reduce the debt pressure?

Inflation works in the same way as compound interest. It creates asset appreciation and causes wealth accumulation much faster than debt because debt is not subjected to the same effect.  Therefore, inflation is able to reduce the debt pressure in China.

However, China cannot afford to sell all its US treasuries because overwhelming inflation will create an overheating economy and China has to manage the burgeoning inflation well or else it will have a bigger problem to resolve in the future.  Fortunately, the worldwide economic situation has created an ideal environment in China for inflation to rear its head.  Why?

The ECB has just stated its willingness to implement a QE policy with an interest rate cut recently.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/06/18/donald-trump-takes-aim-at-mario-draghi-over-interest-rates

Furthermore, the US is also keen to reduce its own interest rates.  Financially speaking, the money will usually flow to a higher interest rate country (China) from a lower interest rate country (EU,US).  Thus, China doesn't need to do anything but to wait for the capital inflows from the EU and US when they reduce their interest rates.  In conclusion, China just needs to sell enough US treasuries to maintain a stable RMB and the expected capital inflows will work its wonders in China.

Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/19	DIR	Sembcorp Industries	2.64	3.05	Outperform	Sum of parts, cut from $3.26
01/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.63	3.2	Buy	Sum of parts
01/23/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.69	3.49	Add
02/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.59	3.2	Buy
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.58	3.7	Buy
02/21/19	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.66	0	Hold
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.67	3.9	Buy	RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
03/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.57	2.8	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35
03/18/19	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.52	0	Hold
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.75	3.9	Buy
05/16/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.13	Buy	Sum of parts
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.9	Buy	Sum of parts, PB1x
05/16/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Industries	2.54	3.41	Add	Sum of parts
05/17/19	phillip	Sembcorp Industries	2.55	3.75	Buy	Sum of parts
06/04/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.38	3.03	Buy	Sum of parts

SATS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation	Remark
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.59	5.6	Buy
01/11/19	OCBC	SATS	4.94	5.23	Hold	DCF
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.8	5.6	Buy
02/14/19	phillip	SATS	4.98	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19	OCBC	SATS	4.98	5.23	Hold
02/14/19	CIMB	SATS	4.98	5.46	Add	PER20.3x
02/14/19	Lim & Tan	SATS	4.98	0	Hold
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	4.98	5.59	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19	Kim Eng	SATS	4.98	5.8	Buy
02/15/19	Citi Research	SATS	5.08	6	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.06	5.6	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.31	5.8	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.27	5.6	Buy
05/17/19	OCBC	SATS	5.22	5.35	Hold
05/21/19	phillip	SATS	5.08	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.08	5.05	Hold	Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.08	5.44	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.07	5.05	Hold	Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.04	5.44	Buy
06/12/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.04	6.1	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20

Sasseur - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation	Remark
02/20/19	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.74	0.9	Buy	DDM
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.74	0.97	Buy	DCF
04/03/19	CIMB	Sasseur	0.78	0.92	Add

Stock calls for 19 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/19/19	Phillip	A-Reit	2.98	2.88	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.36	Buy
06/19/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.79	0.75	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.11	1.93	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	Capitamall Trust	2.57	2.21	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.66	Accumulate
06/19/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.88	0.94	Accumulate
06/19/19	OCBC	DBS	24.8	29.18	Buy	Buy @ $27.50 or lower
06/19/19	phillip	EC World Reit	0.775	0.87	Buy
06/19/19	OCBC	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.56	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.61	2.36	Neutral
06/19/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.64	1.59	Accumulate
06/19/19	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	2.17	2.03	Neutral
06/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.17	9.5	Hold	Buy @ $8.60

President Trump is the man behind wall street.

Just a tweet from President Trump that he and President Xi would have an extended talk at G20 sent the stock markets rallying.

If the trade talk falls out between the US & China at G20, the stock markets will fall hard and fast too.  How do we determine the progress?

If Trump is going to insist on his previous terms, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to discuss the Hong Kong extradition bill and protest with Xi, the trade talk will fall out.

If Trump is going to threaten Xi with additional tariffs, the trade talk will fall out too.

We just need to observe the discussing issues between Xi and Trump to predict the outcome of the trade talk.

Sanli Env - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/06/19	Tayrona	Sanli Env	0.18	0.234	Overweight

Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold
02/25/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.415	0.41	Hold
04/17/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.4	0.41	Hold
05/09/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.41	Hold
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold	RNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	CIMB	Riverstone	1.1	1.22	Add	PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	1.1	1.19	Hold	PER16x FY19
05/14/19	CIMB	Riverstone	0.995	1.22	Add	PER16.5x FY20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.975	1.03	Hold	PER16.8x FY19/20

Stock calls for 18 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	ARA Hospitality	0.87	1.15	Buy
06/18/19	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.42	4.1	Outperform	RNAV (25% discount)
06/18/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.58	2.65	Neutral	DCF & FCF
06/18/19	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.565	0.6	Add	DDM
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.635	0.73	Buy	DCF

The US is trying to nullify China patents now to win the trade war.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senator-rubio-targets-huawei-over-215937943.html

This will definitely open up a new battle frontier and it is bad for businesses.

If the US nullify China patents, China will retaliate by nullifying the US patents too.  When these 2 countries don't recognize each other's patents, the whole world will be in chaos because nobody is protected with patents anymore.

It is best not to open the pandora's box because the repercussion is too severe.

Raffles Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.11	1.16	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.3	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.02	Neutral	DCF
02/26/19	OCBC	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.25	Buy
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19
02/26/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.09	Neutral	DCF
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.07	1.02	Neutral
05/02/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.09	Neutral	DCF
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/19	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.13	Hold	DCF
06/12/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.1	Hold

Q & M - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Q & M	0.495	0.513	Neutral

Propnex - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.565	0.66	Buy
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.595	0.66	Buy
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY19
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/07/19	CIMB	Propnex	0.49	0.64	Add

Stock calls for 17 June 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.81	29.46	Buy
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.75	0.9	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.87	1	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	Lim & Tan	Memtech	1.33	1.35	Accept offer	offer $1.35
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20
06/17/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.755	0.8	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	UOB	24.99	28.97	Buy

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 4

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-trouble-micron-china-unveils-160000815.html

We had stated previously that the semiconductor was facing a permanent slowdown outside China in 2018.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html

This prediction is materializing very fast because China feels the urgency to ramp up its semiconductor developments now.  Many foreign semiconductor manufacturers will lose their China market shares in the future.

Singapore Nodx fell 15.9% in May 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-exports-fall-most-three-031737792.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/singapore-nodx-fell-at-double-digit.html

Baltic dry index - 1062

Today, Thursday, June 13 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 18 points, reaching 1062 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 969

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.