Singapore Stock Exchange - Equity Investments

Friday, September 6, 2019

Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates in September 2019?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-fed-has-cut-interest-rate-by-025.html

We got it right when we predicted a US FED rate cut in July by analyzing the 4 important rates in US.

Let's do it again to see what will happen in September 2019.

Iorr: 2.10% (Falling), Max is 2.25% as set by the FED.

Effr: 2.13% (Falling)

Ioer: 2.10% (Falling)

On RRP: 2%

The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 2% to 2.25% currently.

Effr: 2.13% (Loan rate offered by FED to US bank)
Ioer: 2.10% (Deposit rate offered by FED to US bank for the excess fund)

The spread between Effr and Ioer denotes the monetary supply condition in the US banking system. In other words, the lesser the spread, the looser the monetary supply and vice versa. A shrinking spread describes an easing while a widening spread describes a tightening condition. This spread has not widened which means that there is no monetary tightening in the US. However, the 10-year treasury yield (risk-free rate) is only around 1.5% currently which is below the Ioer (2.1%). Thus, the US FED has to cut its rates to make the Ioer less attractive to the banks in order to stimulate the economy.

Please read the post below to understand the 4 interest rates better.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

The falling rates are signaling that the US FED is likely to cut rates again for it to stay relevant. Furthermore, the US FED is being held hostage by Trump and wall street to cut rates now. Therefore, the US Fed has no choice now, especially the PMI is weakening.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

If the US Fed dares to defy Trump and Wall Street, the stock markets will crash. I don't see the US Fed having the guts or gumption to fight for its independence and risk crashing the stock markets by putting the rates on hold.

Penguin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19
08/07/19	phillip	Penguin	0.495	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	2.8	3.1	Buy
03/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.88	3.25	Buy	DDM
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.92	3.25	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy
07/31/19	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.06	0	Hold
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.06	3.25	Buy
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	3.06	3.35	Buy

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Pacific Century	0.385	0	Buy

Stock calls for 6 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/06/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.51	4	Buy
09/06/19	phillip	Clearbridge	0.142	0.26	Buy	DCF
09/06/19	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.47	0.65	Buy	PER12x FY20
09/06/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	24.63	25.3	Neutral	GGM, PB1.23x FY20
09/06/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.22	0.17	Hold
09/06/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.74	0.88	Buy	DDM

Thursday, September 5, 2019

The US-China trade war is not subsiding.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-imposes-duties-on-structural-steel-from-china--mexico-11874126

The US has imposed duties on China's structural steel.

China has to recognize that the US cannot be trusted and will renege on its promises like a thug.

There is no need to be a gentleman when it comes to dealing with the US because the US will not show any goodwill gesture prior to the October meeting.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-china-trade-talk-is-deferred-to.html

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.183	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.33	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.48	Buy	DDM & DCF
08/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy

Stock calls for 5 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/05/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.49	0	Accumulate
09/05/19	phillip	DBS	24.54	27.6	Accumulate
09/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.71	14.48	Buy	GGM
09/05/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.455	0.56	Buy	DCF
09/05/19	phillip	UOB	25.1	28.6	Accumulate

The HK protestors have rejected the HK CE's pacification.

Just as we expected, the HK protectors have rejected her compromise and pacification.

The HK protestors are paid to protest and they will not accept any favourable outcome even if the government relented.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html

They claimed the relentment came too little and too late but they never thought that late was better than never. Eventually, they will push themselves into a corner and regret this later.

The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-u-hold-trade-talks-014856242.html

The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019 from September 2019. Will the October meeting take place? The US will impose another set of tariffs on 1 October and China will definitely retaliate against that.

The US has to end this trade war fast because its bleak economic numbers are showing up in the PMI now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

The weakening PMI will cause the GDP number to dive and Trump has to stop the hemorrhage before he loses his election.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Latest HK Chief Executive's telecast.

Is she doing enough to end the HK protests?

No! This is because she is not eradicating the root cause of the problems (protests). This uprising of the Hongkongers is engineered by the US, UK and Taiwan. She must uproot those paid lackeys to end the protests. The protestors don't even understand what they're protesting. Therefore, it is useless to pacify the protestors as they will keep shifting their goal poles.

Cathy Pacific is a high risk airliner! Fly at your own risk!

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025421/cathay-pacific-suspends-cabin-crew-two-flights-found

Cathy Pacific employees committed a terrorist act by depleting the oxygen bottles.

Cathy Pacific chairman has resigned after the terrorist act was committed by his employees.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hong-kong-cathay-pacific-chairman-resigns-11872184

We had warned about a flight risk with Cathy Pacific previously in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/cathy-pacific-suspends-ticket-sales-at.html

China is right to scrutinize Cathy Pacific employees flying in and out of China airspace.

Hot news! Singapore general election is coming!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pm-lee-convenes-electoral-boundaries-review-committee-091256644.html

It looks like SG GE is coming in a few months time according to the historical record.

Why?

This is because the economy will be so bad next year that there will be more opposition voices.

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.67	0.85	Add	DDM
01/16/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.79	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.85	Buy	DCF
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.82	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.77	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.76	Take Profit	Accept offer
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.85	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.76	Take Profit
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.76	Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.5	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.6	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.52	0.6	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.57	Hold
05/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.5	0.57	Hold

Stock calls for 4 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/04/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.65	0.67	Neutral	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7.64x
09/04/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.46	2.59	Hold
09/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.455	0.65	Buy	PER15x FY19
09/04/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.455	0.69	Buy	DCF, PER11.9x FY20
09/04/19	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.8	3.89	Hold	DCF

The Hong Kong protestors are daft youngsters.

The HK stock market goes up almost 1,000 points today because the HK government is expected to announce the withdrawal of the extradition bill.

The HK protestors are daft youngsters because they exude stupidity beyond my comprehension. Why?

HK Lam announced that the extradition bill was dead in July 2019 which meant that it couldn't be resuscitated. In other words, she meant it to be scrapped and gave the protestors more than what they had bargained for. The law is very specific and must not be a subject of contention. However, the protestors didn't understand the legality of the term and insisted on withdrawal in which the bill could be reintroduced in the future. This is the stupidity that I cannot comprehend.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hong-kong-protests-carrie-lam-extradition-bill-dead-withdraw-11703542

The HK protestors had shortchanged themselves unknowingly and the stock investors joined in without a proper understanding of the legal term.

By withdrawing the bill, the HK government can rehash and reintroduce the bill later and this will create an overhang among the protestors. Therefore, the HK protests won't stop even after this withdrawal announcement.

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in August 2019.

The ISM PMI is in a contraction mode now at 49.1 and this is lower than China's PMI (49.5). China's PMI is at the doldrum already and is ready to expand soon but the US PMI is still sliding after 5 consecutive months.

The US was unable to export to China because of the high tariffs and this caused the new export order to decline further. However, the frontloading by the US consumers prior to the 1 Sept tariffs was helping to hold up the new local order. I don't see the rise to be sustainable as consumer demand is elastic.

The reduction in new orders is causing declines in customers' inventories, production, employment and supplier's deliveries.

The high tariffs were affecting imports and the producers were turning to local raw materials which were cheaper.

This is a very bad PMI report as many sub-indexes are in the red. The next GDP figure will be very bad despite the US recent revision to 2% from 2.1%.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in-july.html

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

OUE - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	OCBC	OUE	1.66	2.32	Buy
04/17/19	OCBC	OUE	1.79	2.32	Buy

OCBC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.1	14	Add	PER10.8x FY20
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.03	14.05	Buy
01/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.37	13.82	Buy
01/31/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.39	10.95	Hold	DDM
02/01/19	phillip	OCBC	11.51	13.7	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.49	13.82	Buy
02/13/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.41	10.95	Hold
02/25/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12	Hold	PB1.2x CY19
02/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	13.85	Buy
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.39	12.9	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.39	10.73	Hold	DDM
02/27/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.2	13	Outperform	PB
03/04/19	phillip	OCBC	11.1	13.7	Buy
03/07/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.22	10.73	Hold
03/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.05	12	Hold
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.99	13.85	Buy
04/02/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	13.7	Buy
04/02/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	12.9	Buy
04/11/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.72	12	Hold
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.77	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96
04/23/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.78	10.73	Hold
04/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.83	14.12	Buy	GGM, PB1.39x FY19
05/03/19	phillip	OCBC	12.04	13.7	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.31	12.2	Neutral	PB1.12x FY20
05/10/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.31	12	Hold
05/13/19	Macquarie	OCBC	11.39	13	Outperform
05/13/19	phillip	OCBC	11.39	12.68	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x FY19
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.39	14.62	Buy	GGM, PB1.42x FY19
05/13/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.39	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.26x
05/22/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.09	11.07	Hold
06/03/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.57	12.59	Hold
06/06/19	phillip	OCBC	10.63	12.7	Accumulate
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.8	14.62	Buy
06/17/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	10.78	11.07	Hold
06/25/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.28	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.4	14.62	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.59	11.07	Hold
07/03/19	phillip	OCBC	11.54	12.7	Accumulate
07/08/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.39	12.2	Neutral	GGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.64	11.5	Hold
08/02/19	Lim & Tan	OCBC	11.42	0	Buy on weakness
08/05/19	phillip	OCBC	11.21	12.5	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	11.21	11.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	11.21	14.48	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	OCBC	11.21	11.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.08	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19	Kim Eng	OCBC	11.08	11.05	Hold	DDM
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	OCBC	10.71	11.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19	CIMB	OCBC	10.69	12.53	Hold
09/02/19	phillip	OCBC	10.65	12.32	Accumulate	GGM

Netlink - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.765	0.99	Buy	DCF
01/02/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.765	0.93	Buy
01/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.77	0.87	Buy	DCF
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.785	0.93	Buy	DDM, PER38.8x FY21
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.79	0.87	Buy	DCF, PER32.6x FY21
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.79	0.99	Buy
02/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.805	0.92	Buy	DCF, PER40x FY21
02/18/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.805	0.9	Buy
03/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.795	0.9	Buy
03/27/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.825	0.89	Accumulate	DCF
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.83	0.92	Buy
04/01/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy
05/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.825	0.92	Buy	DCF
05/09/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.82	0.87	Buy
05/15/19	OCBC	Netlink	0.835	0.95	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.835	0.9	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.835	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
05/15/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.835	0.94	Buy	DDM
06/03/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.83	0.93	Buy	DCF
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.825	0.9	Buy
06/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.835	0.97	Buy
06/27/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.89	0.94	Buy
07/15/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
07/17/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.885	0.94	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.865	0.94	Buy	DDM
08/07/19	DBS Vickers	Netlink	0.865	0.95	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 3 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/03/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.665	0.71	Neutral
09/03/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.44	0	Buy
09/03/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.59	1.6	Neutral	PER15x FY20
09/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.16	1.22	Hold
09/03/19	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	1.16	1.63	Buy	PB1.48x FY20
09/03/19	OCBC	Soilbuild Reit	0.55	0.58	Accept offer

Monday, September 2, 2019

Nera Telecom - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Nera Telecom	0.285	0	Buy

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.06	0.11	Buy
02/13/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.082	0.11	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.077	0.11	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.081	0.095	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.076	0.1	Buy
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.068	0.083	Buy	DCF

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.33	Hold	Sum of parts
02/21/19	CIMB	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.37	Add	Sum of parts
02/21/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.3	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
03/26/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.315	0.34	Buy	PEG0.93x
05/31/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.24	0.34	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16x FY20
06/04/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.245	0.26	Hold
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.23	0.34	Buy	PER16x FY20
08/15/19	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.197	0.29	Buy	Sum of parts
08/20/19	Kim Eng	MM2 Asia	0.186	0.2	Hold	PEG1x

Stock calls for 2 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/02/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.15	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts
09/02/19	phillip	OCBC	10.65	12.32	Accumulate	GGM
09/02/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.85	Buy	DCF
09/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Thai Beverage	0.9	0.87	Hold	Sum of parts
09/02/19	CIMB	UOB	24.96	29.54	Add

The US was caught red-handed for fudging its employment data.

https://www.marketplace.org/2019/08/23/job-creation-revised-down/

The US had to revise down its employment by 500,000 jobs.

We questioned the validity of the US employment data when we analyzed it in May 2019 because we found some discrepancy.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/discrepancies-in-us-employment-data.html

Saturday, August 31, 2019

The Strait Times Index (STI) has a high probability to close in the red in August. - Part 2

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-strait-times-index-sti-has-high.html

We are right about the STI ending in the red (-5.88%) in August 2019 and this August curse has not been broken yet insofar. Yeah!

2-year US treasury and 10-year US treasury yield curves.

The 2y-10y treasuries yield curves had inverted 3x in August 2019.

The 3m-10y treasuries yield curves had inverted for the whole of August 2019.

Both the aforesaid yield curves are being closely monitored by the US FED for signs of recession.

Baltic dry index - 2277

Today, Thursday, August 29 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 10 points, reaching 2277 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.