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Thursday, September 17, 2026

What will the US Fed do for its September FOMC meeting? - Part 3

The US Fed has hiked its rates (25bps) as we've projected.

Let's look at the economic projections below.

The core PCE will increase to 3.4% by the end of this year and the unemployment rate will decrease to 4.1%.  These data mean that the Fed has the room for further rate hike because of high inflation and high employment.

The latest dot plot indicates that the Fed is likely to hike its rates 1 more time as many Fed members vote for rates above 4% (the current raters are 3.75-4%).  Subsequently, the Fed is indicating no rate hikes for 2027 because many Fed members maintain their votes in the 4.25% range.

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