Baltic dry index - 1710

* The Baltic dry index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities and reflects rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, rose 11 points, or about 0.6%, to 1,710.

====================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 954

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Delfi - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.24	1.68	Buy	DCF, PER28x FY19
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Delfi	0.995	1.49	Buy	PER23.7x FY20
11/13/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.955	1.68	Buy	DCF
11/14/19	DBS Vickers	Delfi	0.96	1.51	Buy	PER23.1x FY20
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1	1.68	Buy
01/06/20	DBS Vickers	Delfi	1	1.51	Buy
02/07/20	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.96	1.68	Buy	DCF
02/28/20	DBS Vickers	Delfi	0.96	1.55	Buy	PER23x FY20
04/27/20	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.62	0.74	Buy	DCF
05/22/20	DBS Vickers	Delfi	0.83	1.08	Buy	PER18x FY20/21
06/05/20	Amfrasers	Delfi	0.77	0.93	outperform
07/15/20	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.74	0.74	Neutral	DCF

DBS Bank - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/01/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.96	29.46	Buy
07/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.96	30.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.59x FY19
07/02/19	OCBC	DBS	26.6	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x, PER14.7x
07/03/19	phillip	DBS	26.5	29	Accumulate
07/08/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.63	30.8	Buy	PB1.5x FY20
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.61	30.3	Buy	PB1.47x FY20
07/29/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	26.88	0	Buy
07/30/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	26.54	28.3	Hold	GGM, PB1.37x FY20
07/30/19	CIMB	DBS	26.54	27.59	Hold	GGM
07/30/19	Kim Eng	DBS	26.54	28.05	Hold	DDM
07/30/19	OCBC	DBS	26.54	28	Hold
07/30/19	phillip	DBS	26.54	30.9	Accumulate
07/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.54	31.3	Buy
07/31/19	Macquarie	DBS	26.49	25.8	Neutral	PB
07/31/19	phillip	DBS	26.49	27.6	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.4x
08/23/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	24.59	28.3	Neutral
08/29/19	Macquarie	DBS	24.02	25.8	Neutral	PB
09/05/19	phillip	DBS	24.54	27.6	Accumulate
09/06/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	24.63	25.3	Neutral	GGM, PB1.23x FY20
09/26/19	Kim Eng	DBS	24.73	28.05	Hold
09/26/19	Jefferies	DBS	24.73	31	Buy
09/27/19	CIMB	DBS	24.82	27.59	Hold
10/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25	31.3	Buy
10/04/19	phillip	DBS	24.57	27.6	Accumulate
10/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.18	29.75	Buy
11/05/19	phillip	DBS	26.13	27.6	Accumulate
11/11/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	26.61	25.3	Neutral	GGM, PB1.23x FY20
11/11/19	Lim & Tan	DBS	26.61	0	Buy on weakness
11/12/19	Macquarie	DBS	26.64	25.8	Neutral	PB
11/12/19	phillip	DBS	26.64	27.3	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.4x
11/12/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	26.64	25.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.28x FY20
11/12/19	Kim Eng	DBS	26.64	29.92	Buy	DDM
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.64	30	Buy
12/02/19	CIMB	DBS	25.25	28.29	Hold
12/02/19	Kim Eng	DBS	25.25	29.92	Buy
12/03/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.13	25.8	Neutral
12/04/19	phillip	DBS	24.98	27.3	Accumulate
01/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.11	30	Buy
01/08/20	CIMB	DBS	26.05	28.29	Add
01/08/20	Kim Eng	DBS	26.05	29.92	Buy
01/14/20	DMG & Partners	DBS	26.1	25.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.28x FY20
02/07/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.7	28.65	Buy
02/13/20	Lim & Tan	DBS	25.42	0	Buy
02/14/20	CIMB	DBS	25.42	27.09	Add	GGM
02/14/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.42	28	Buy	GGM, PB1.39x FY20
02/14/20	DMG & Partners	DBS	25.42	24.8	Neutral	GGM, PB1.25x FY20
02/14/20	Kim Eng	DBS	25.42	28.6	Buy
02/14/20	Jefferies	DBS	25.42	28.5	Buy
02/18/20	phillip	DBS	25.48	27.3	Accumulate
02/18/20	Citibank	DBS	25.48	26.8	Hold
03/04/20	Citibank	DBS	23.66	24.4	Hold
03/05/20	CIMB	DBS	23.91	24.33	Hold
03/05/20	OCBC	DBS	23.91	25.5	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
03/09/20	Citibank	DBS	23	17.5	Sell
03/10/20	phillip	DBS	21.15	27.3	Accumulate
03/10/20	Jefferies	DBS	21.15	27	Buy
03/13/20	DMG & Partners	DBS	20.2	21.5	Neutral	GGM, PB1.09x FY20
03/19/20	Macquarie	DBS	17.9	20.25	Neutral
03/19/20	Jefferies	DBS	17.9	20	Buy
04/01/20	Jefferies	DBS	18.57	20	Buy
04/01/20	Citibank	DBS	18.57	17.5	Sell
04/08/20	Kim Eng	DBS	19.11	21.99	Buy
04/13/20	phillip	DBS	19.14	27.3	Accumulate
04/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	19.38	22.1	Buy
04/24/20	Macquarie	DBS	18.74	18.25	Neutral
04/30/20	Lim & Tan	DBS	19.2	0	Buy
05/01/20	DMG & Partners	DBS	19.2	18.7	Neutral	GGM, PB0.96x FY20
05/04/20	phillip	DBS	19.96	20.59	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.09x
05/04/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	19.96	22.3	Buy
05/11/20	Kim Eng	DBS	19.7	22.1	Buy
05/11/20	Citibank	DBS	19.7	19.65	Hold
06/08/20	phillip	DBS	22.28	20.6	Neutral
06/08/20	Citibank	DBS	22.28	25.5	Buy
06/10/20	Lim & Tan	DBS	22.95	0	Hold
06/11/20	Macquarie	DBS	23.01	26	outperform	PB
06/18/20	DMG & Partners	DBS	21.57	18.7	Neutral
06/24/20	Kim Eng	DBS	21.13	22.1	Buy
07/01/20	CIMB	DBS	20.85	18.8	Hold
07/03/20	phillip	DBS	21.28	20.6	Neutral
07/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	21.57	26.22	Buy
07/14/20	Macquarie	DBS	21.54	26	outperform	PB

Dasin Retail - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/22/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.875	0.94	Accumulate
08/16/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.87	0.94	Accumulate	DDM, PB0.65x
09/24/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.845	0.94	Accumulate
10/18/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.845	0.94	Accumulate
11/25/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.84	0.94	Accumulate
11/27/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.84	0.88	Accumulate	DDM, PB0.62x FY19
03/10/20	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.805	0.88	Accumulate	DDM
05/27/20	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.83	0.91	Accumulate	DDM

Stock calls for 17 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/17/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.46	0.54	Buy	PER12x FY20
07/17/20	CIMB	ESR-Reit	0.39	0.492	Add	DDM
07/17/20	Lim & Tan	ESR-Reit	0.39	0	Accept Offer
07/17/20	CLSA	ESR-Reit	0.39	0.47	Buy
07/17/20	Soochow	ESR-Reit	0.39	0.47	Buy
07/17/20	Morningstar	ESR-Reit	0.39	0.42	Stable
07/17/20	Daiwa	ESR-Reit	0.39	0.42	Hold
07/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.47	0.58	Buy	DDM
07/17/20	DBS Vickers	Sabana	0.36	0.4	Buy	PB0.94x ESR-Reit
07/17/20	Amfrasers	Yanlord	1.34	1.45	Outperform	RNAV

Singapore Nodx surged 16.1% in June 2020

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-exports-surge-16-1-003510797.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

June 2020: 16.1%

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

The US debt market is going to implode! - Part 3

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/father-z-score-predicts-surge-110210239.html

The NY professor has corroborated our May warning about the debt implosion in the US.  The debt implosion will cause a big financial explosion.  This is the financial tsunami we've just warned about recently.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_15.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

Like I said many times before, when we tell you something, you better sit up and listen.

Dairy Farm - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	7.29	8.25	Neutral
08/02/19	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	7.38	7.99	Hold	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	7.6	7.38	Neutral	DCF
08/13/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	6.98	7.29	Hold	PER23x CY20
09/23/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	6.65	6.63	Neutral	DCF
11/29/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	5.93	5.4	Reduce	PER22x CY20
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	5.9	6.63	Neutral
03/06/20	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.75	5.05	Hold	DCF
03/06/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.75	5.2	Buy	Sum of parts
03/06/20	CIMB	Dairy Farm	4.75	4.38	Reduce	PER17x FY20
03/25/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	3.96	4.7	Buy	Sum of parts
03/27/20	HSBC	Dairy Farm	4.31	5.05	Hold
04/06/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.31	4.7	Buy
04/09/20	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.89	4.95	Neutral	DCF
04/15/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.83	5.59	Buy
04/29/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.75	5.1	Buy	Sum of parts
05/28/20	Macquarie	Dairy Farm	4.26	5.8	Outperform
06/08/20	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.75	4.95	Neutral
06/10/20	CIMB	Dairy Farm	5	5.45	Hold	PER20x CY21
07/03/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.66	5.1	Buy

CSE Global - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/15/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.435	0	Buy
08/16/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.44	0.61	Buy	DCF
08/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.44	0.62	Buy
08/29/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.425	0.6	Add	PER13.5x FY20
09/03/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.44	0	Buy
09/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.455	0.65	Buy	PER15x FY19
09/04/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.455	0.69	Buy	DCF, PER11.9x FY20
09/06/19	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.47	0.65	Buy	PER12x FY20
09/09/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.465	0.68	Add
09/10/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.46	0.64	Outperform	Sum of parts, PER12x, PB2x
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.46	0.69	Buy
10/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.465	0.65	Buy
10/31/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.525	0.68	Buy
11/01/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.525	0.69	Buy	DCF
11/07/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.54	0	Buy
11/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.53	0.7	Buy
11/08/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.53	0.61	Outperform	Sum of parts
11/08/19	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.53	0.69	Buy	PER12x FY20
11/25/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.54	0.73	Add
12/02/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.525	0.61	Outperform	Sum of parts
12/09/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.525	0	Buy
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.535	0.69	buy
12/27/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.545	0.73	Add
01/08/20	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.56	0.7	Buy
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.56	0.69	Buy
02/05/20	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.51	0.68	Buy
02/11/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.53	0.69	Buy	DCF
02/28/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.545	0.73	Buy	DCF
02/28/20	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.545	0.72	Buy
02/28/20	CIMB	CSE Global	0.545	0.77	Add	PER13.5x FY21
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.52	0.7	Buy	PER12x FY20
03/12/20	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.465	0.65	Buy	PER12x FY20
03/26/20	CIMB	CSE Global	0.35	0.45	Add
03/30/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.36	0.73	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.35	0.73	Buy
04/08/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.38	0.54	Buy	PER12x FY20
05/06/20	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.395	0.54	Buy	PER10.6x
06/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.475	0.65	Buy	PER12.1x FY21
06/04/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.49	0.54	Buy	PER12x FY20
06/04/20	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.49	0	Buy
06/04/20	CIMB	CSE Global	0.49	0.55	Add

Cromwell Reit (EUR) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/09/20	DBS Vickers	Cromwell Reit (EUR)	0.36	0.59	Buy

Stock calls for 16 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/20	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.34	3.35	Buy
07/16/20	Kim Eng	Mapletree Commercial	1.94	2.15	Buy
07/16/20	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Marine	0.455	0.55	Buy	PB0.82x
07/16/20	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	0.455	0.49	Hold	Buy @ $0.40
07/16/20	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Marine	0.455	0	Avoid
07/16/20	Lim & Tan	SIA	3.77	0	Sell
07/16/20	DBS Vickers	SPH	1.25	1.26	Hold	Sum of parts

China Q2 GDP growth was 3.2%! How real was it?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3093371/china-gdp-economy-avoids-recession-second-quarter-growth-32

China expanded 3.2% in Q2 2020 which showed great economic resiliency.

We had earlier projected in Feb 2020 that China Q2 would be worse than Q1 and we were wrong because we belittled the communist's power in boosting its economic growth and containing the virus outbreak.  Therefore, we are providing an update now since there was no update after Feb 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-can-stabilize-its-stock-markets_21.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-can-stabilize-its-stock-markets_17.html

After our postings in Feb 2020, China had managed to contain the COVID outbreak and boost its economic growth with stimulative policies.  This is the advantage of a communist country because it can channel and divert all the resources to develop its country without any reservation.

How real is China GDP growth?  Is the GDP growth of 3.2% a fudged number?

Well, the GDP number doesn't necessarily reflect economic reality as shown below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-latest-us-gdp-growth-is-not.html

Therefore, we will analyze other economic variables to ascertain the veracity of the GDP growth.

China PMI

China PMIs had been in an expansionary mode from April to June 2020.  How is PMI related to GDP?  Please see our posting below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

China retail sales

China retail sales had been rebounding from its doldrum of -20.5 in Jan to -1.8 in June 2020.

China Import

China Export

In conclusion, the other economic variables (PMI, retail sales, import & export) had improved in Q2 which indicated that the Q2 GDP growth in China was real.