Stock calls for 17 August 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/17/20	Phillip	APAC Realty	0.375	0.365	Neutral	DCF
08/17/20	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.51	0.65	Buy	PER11x FY21
08/17/20	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.51	0.74	Buy
08/17/20	phillip	Comfortdelgro	1.39	1.65	Accumulate	DCF
08/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	1.39	1.78	Buy
08/17/20	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	1.39	1.63	Buy	PER15x FY21
08/17/20	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	1.39	1.55	Buy	DCF, PER17.6x FY21
08/17/20	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	1.39	1.4	Hold
08/17/20	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	1.39	1.76	Buy	DCF
08/17/20	CIMB	First Resources	1.38	1.8	Add
08/17/20	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.38	1.7	Buy	DCF
08/17/20	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.38	1.45	Neutral	PER14x FY21
08/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.38	1.65	Buy
08/17/20	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.38	1.79	Buy	PER18x FY20
08/17/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	1.04	1.21	outperform	PER12x FY21
08/17/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.24	0.3	Buy	DCF
08/17/20	DBS Vickers	Fu Yu	0.24	0.27	Hold	PER12.6x FY21
08/17/20	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.24	0	Buy
08/17/20	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.154	0.13	Sell	Sum of parts
08/17/20	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.154	0.12	Reduce
08/17/20	CIMB	Koufu	0.685	0.86	Add
08/17/20	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.29	0	Buy
08/17/20	phillip	Propnex	0.59	0.7	Buy	DCF
08/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Sasseur	0.775	0.99	Buy	DDM
08/17/20	DBS Vickers	ST Engineering	3.39	3.4	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ below $3.10
08/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	ST Engineering	3.39	3.4	Hold	Buy @ $3.15
08/17/20	CIMB	ST Engineering	3.39	3.76	Add
08/17/20	OCBC	ST Engineering	3.39	3.9	Buy
08/17/20	Amfrasers	Sunpower	0.575	0.91	outperform
08/17/20	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.605	0.72	Buy	Sum of parts
08/17/20	CIMB	Thai Beverage	0.605	0.7	Hold
08/17/20	Amfrasers	Thai Beverage	0.605	0.93	Outperform
08/17/20	Amfrasers	UMS	1.08	1.17	Neutral	PER13x FY21
08/17/20	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	20.25	17.64	Hold	PER14.4x FY21, Buy @ $16

Singapore Nodx rose 6% in July 2020.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-july-exports-rise-6-003000134.html

Year on year changes (YOY):

July 2020: 6%

June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

Baltic dry index - 1577

Today, Thursday, August 13 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 37 points, reaching 1577 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 935

 Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

How do you interpret PPI vs CPI and their impacts on the economy?

If you only know how to interpret the PPI and CPI headline numbers and their m-o-m or y-o-y changes, it only shows that you don't know how to analyze the data and also don't understand their economic relationship. 

Well, different people interpret the same data set differently. Therefore, I will show you how a brilliant analyst (me) does it.

Let's begin by looking at the economic relationship first.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-true-picture-of-us-economy.html

Next, we can learn about PPI and CPI impacts.

In a nutshell, a producer will be motivated to produce more when the PPI is rising because of the rising profit margin while a rising CPI will sap consumer demands because it diminishes the consumer purchasing power.

When the PPI is greater than the CPI, it will motivate the producer to produce more. Therefore, this phenomenon is known as an inventory growth phase and this will increase the GDP under the investment component (See below).

GDP = Government spending + Investment + Consumption + Net Exports (X-M)

The reverse is true when the PPI is lesser than the CPI since it motivates the producer to produce lesser. Thus, this phenomenon is known as an inventory reduction phrase and this will decrease the GDP.

The most recent PPI vs CPI chart is showing that the PPI is below the CPI and is in the negative or contracting territory. Moreover, the recent upward slope of the PPI denotes that the producer is reducing the inventory passively instead of proactively (downward slope).

How true is this conclusion (inventory reduction phase)?

We can find another alternative variable (PMI inventories subindex) to verify and authenticate this.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/us-ism-pmi-had-shown-great-improvement.html

The PMI inventories subindex is in a contracting mode (below 50) which also substantiates our conclusion (inventory reduction phase).

This conclusion (inventory reduction phase) is bad news for the GDP unless the other GDP components can neutralize this negative factor.

Kimly - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.235	0.23	Neutral	DCF
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.225	0.23	Neutral
11/28/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral	DCF
12/11/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.245	0.24	Neutral
06/16/20	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.22	0.24	Neutral
06/26/20	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.225	0.26	Buy	DCF

Keppel Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.28	1.12	Neutral
07/16/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.41	Add	DDM
07/16/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.2	Neutral	DDM
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.37	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.45	Buy	DCF
07/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.26	0	Hold
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.2	1.45	Buy
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.21	Hold	Buy @ $1.1
10/02/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.45	Buy	DCF
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.26	1.23	Neutral	DDM
10/17/19	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.35	Add	DDM
10/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.24	1.2	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.1
10/17/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.24	0	Hold
12/04/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.23	1.45	Buy
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.25	1.23	Neutral
01/24/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.27	1.45	Buy	DCF
01/24/20	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.27	1.38	Add
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.21	1.45	Buy
03/18/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	0.96	1.45	Buy
04/13/20	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	0.95	1.3	Buy
04/23/20	CIMB	Keppel Reit	0.99	1.2	Add	DDM
04/23/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	0.99	1.23	Neutral
04/24/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.04	0	Buy on weakness
05/04/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.06	1.07	Neutral	DDM
06/08/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.16	1.35	Buy	DCF
06/08/20	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.16	1.3	Buy
06/23/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.13	1.07	Neutral
07/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.11	1.3	Buy
07/09/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.1	1.35	Buy
07/21/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Reit	1.09	1.1	Neutral	DDM
07/21/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel Reit	1.09	0	Buy
07/21/20	CIMB	Keppel Reit	1.09	1.2	Add

Keppel Pacific - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/12/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.79	0.88	Buy	DDM
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.82	0.9	Buy
09/06/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.74	0.88	Buy	DDM
09/09/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.75	0.9	Buy
10/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.76	0.9	Buy	DCF
10/16/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.76	0.88	Buy	DDM
12/10/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.775	0.88	Buy
01/22/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.765	0.88	Buy	DDM
01/24/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.785	0.9	Buy	DCF
03/20/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.395	0.9	Buy
04/14/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.54	0.76	Buy	DDM
06/08/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.725	0.8	Buy	DDM
06/26/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.68	0.85	Buy
07/24/20	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.715	0.8	Buy	DDM

Stock calls for 14 August 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.38	0.4	Hold	PER11.4x FY21
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.235	0.33	Buy
08/14/20	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.32	0.38	Add
08/14/20	OCBC	City Developments	8.46	10.64	Buy
08/14/20	CIMB	City Developments	8.46	10.1	Add
08/14/20	DMG & Partners	City Developments	8.46	9.5	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
08/14/20	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	8.46	9.2	Buy
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	Delfi	0.725	0.98	Buy	PER18x FY21
08/14/20	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.62	0.75	Buy	PER12x FY20
08/14/20	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	1.24	1.37	Buy
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	Frencken	1.24	1.43	Buy	PER13.2x FY21
08/14/20	CIMB	Frencken	1.24	1.06	Reduce
08/14/20	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.585	0.69	Buy
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	Sunpower	0.58	0.69	Buy	DCF
08/14/20	UOB Kay Hian	Sunpower	0.58	0.92	Buy	Sum of parts
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.18	1.37	Buy	PER15x FY21
08/14/20	CIMB	UOL	6.64	7.29	Add
08/14/20	OCBC	Wilmar	4.87	5.4	Buy

Keppel Infrastructure - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.505	0.58	Buy	DDM
10/15/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.545	0.58	Buy
01/22/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.55	0.58	Buy	DDM
04/21/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.475	0	Buy
04/22/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.48	0.54	Buy	DDM
04/24/20	Credit Suisse	Keppel Infrastructure	0.49	0.57	Outperform
07/23/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel Infrastructure	0.535	0.57	Buy	DDM
07/23/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel Infrastructure	0.535	0	Hold

Keppel DC Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/10/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.67	1.54	Add
07/17/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.93	Buy
07/17/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.9	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.71	Hold	DDM
07/18/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.73	1.67	Hold	DDM
07/23/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.75	1.71	Neutral
07/26/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.71	1.93	Hold
08/26/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.74	1.71	Neutral
09/17/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	1.8	2.08	Buy	DDM
09/17/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.8	1.95	Outperform
09/18/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.93	1.82	Hold	DDM
09/19/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.97	2	Accumulate	DDM
10/08/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.9	2.2	Buy	DCF
10/16/19	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.99	1.88	Hold	DDM
10/16/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.99	2.06	Accumulate	DDM
10/16/19	Lim & Tan	Keppel DC Reit	1.99	0	Hold
10/17/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	2	2.11	Outperform
10/17/19	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	2	2.08	Hold
11/25/19	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	2.01	2.06	Accumulate
12/18/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	1.97	2.23	Buy	DCF
01/22/20	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	2.25	2.03	Hold	DDM
01/23/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	2.22	2.4	Buy	DCF
02/04/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	2.27	2.4	Buy
02/25/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	2.5	2.55	Hold	DCF
03/02/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	2.32	2.55	Hold	DCF
03/11/20	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	2.38	2.19	Neutral
03/13/20	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	2.14	2.06	Accumulate
03/19/20	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	1.86	2.17	Add
04/22/20	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	2.44	2.17	Hold
04/22/20	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	2.44	2.54	Hold
04/24/20	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	2.45	2.2	Hold	DDM
07/22/20	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	2.75	2.57	Neutral	DDM, Up from $2.31
07/22/20	DBS Vickers	Keppel DC Reit	2.75	2.8	Hold	DCF
07/22/20	CIMB	Keppel DC Reit	2.75	2.88	Hold	DDM
07/22/20	Lim & Tan	Keppel DC Reit	2.75	0	Hold
07/22/20	OCBC	Keppel DC Reit	2.75	2.86	Hold