AEM - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/08/20	Kim Eng	AEM	3.58	4.04	Buy	PER4.8x FY20/21
05/11/20	CIMB	AEM	3.06	3.58	Add	GGM, PB4.86x
05/11/20	DBS Vickers	AEM	3.06	2.87	Hold	PER10x FY21
05/14/20	Amfrasers	AEM	3.15	3.61	Outperform	PER12x FY20
06/30/20	DBS Vickers	AEM	2.93	3.53	Buy	PER10.4x FY21
07/24/20	Amfrasers	AEM	3.68	4.24	Outperform
07/27/20	Kim Eng	AEM	3.51	4.04	Buy	PB4.8x FY20/21
08/04/20	CIMB	AEM	3.66	4.63	Add	GGM
08/05/20	DBS Vickers	AEM	4.17	4.96	Buy	PER13.7x FY21
08/05/20	Kim Eng	AEM	4.17	4.26	Buy
08/05/20	Amfrasers	AEM	4.17	4.6	Outperform
09/11/20	Kim Eng	AEM	3.29	5.05	Buy
10/07/20	CIMB	AEM	3.62	4.63	Add
10/12/20	Amfrasers	AEM	3.65	4.78	Outperform
10/13/20	DBS Vickers	AEM	3.68	4.96	Buy
11/05/20	Kim Eng	AEM	3.47	5.05	Buy	PER14x FY21
11/05/20	DBS Vickers	AEM	3.47	5.16	Buy	PER13.7x FY21
11/06/20	Amfrasers	AEM	3.54	5.26	Outperform
01/04/21	DBS Vickers	AEM	3.45	5.16	Buy	PER13.7x FY21
01/13/21	Kim Eng	AEM	3.84	5.05	Buy
01/13/21	CIMB	AEM	3.84	4.63	Add	GGM, PB6.09x FY21
02/03/21	DBS Vickers	AEM	4.35	5.16	Buy
03/01/21	Kim Eng	AEM	4.03	5.05	Buy	PER14x FY21
03/02/21	DBS Vickers	AEM	4.02	5.36	Buy
03/02/21	CIMB	AEM	4.02	4.63	Add	GGM, PB4.4x FY21
03/15/21	Amfrasers	AEM	3.86	5.05	Outperform	PER14x FY21
04/23/21	DBS Vickers	AEM	3.98	5.36	Buy
05/04/21	Lim & Tan	AEM	4.08	0	Take Profit
05/05/21	CIMB	AEM	3.79	4.63	Add	GGM, PB4.4x FY21
05/05/21	DBS Vickers	AEM	3.79	4.73	Buy	PER13.7x FY21
05/06/21	Amfrasers	AEM	3.63	4.36	Outperform	PER14x FY21
05/06/21	Kim Eng	AEM	3.63	5.56	Buy

Stock calls for 2 June 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	2.93	3.82	Buy	DDM
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.2	1.35	Buy
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	1.7	1.99	Buy
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.29	1.83	Buy
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.42	3	Buy
06/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.42	3.06	Buy	DDM
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.855	0.95	Buy
06/02/21	Kim Eng	Genting	0.855	1.16	Buy	DCF
06/02/21	Amfrasers	Genting	0.855	0.95	Buy	Buy @ $0.84
06/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	IHH Healthcare	1.75	1.82	Buy	Ringgit $5.70 target price
06/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Reit	1.16	1.49	Buy	DDM
06/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.765	0.97	Buy	DDM
06/02/21	CIMB	Lendlease Reit	0.765	0.869	Add	DDM
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	2.09	2.25	Buy
06/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.78	3.62	Buy	DDM
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	OCBC	12.56	14	Buy
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	SATS	4.03	4.5	Buy
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	26.31	29.2	Buy
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.84	6.67	Buy	S

Why is there a discrepancy in the relationship between the US treasury yield and the USD index?

One of my viewers had emailed me to seek an explanation of the discrepancy in the relationship between the US treasury yield and the USD index.

I'm very heartened that someone is reading my postings seriously and I will do some clarification here.

In my post on 4 Feb 2021 below, the China credit impulse and USD chart showed a strong inverse correlation between China credit impulse and the USD index.  The China credit impulse was starting to weaken at the beginning of 2021 and this would mean that the USD would strengthen (inverse) in the future.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/02/chinas-monetary-tightening-will-impact.html

Let's take a look at the latest China credit impulse now.

The China credit impulse is indeed declining in 2021 insofar but the USD is not strengthening (weakening) as predicted which defies the inverse correlation.  The reason for such a deviation is because the short-term data will be affected by many factors and will also lag the long-term trend (China credit impulse trendline, 2009 to 2021 data chart).

I also had stated in my Feb 2021 post that the US treasury yield (10-year) was highly correlated to the USD index.  However, this was only a short-term financial opinion because funds usually would flow from a low-interest yield country to a high-interest yield country as investors would seek higher returns.

My recent post in May 2021 had shown an inverse relationship between inflation expectation and the USD index.  Since the treasury yield forms part of the equation, it is also inversely related to the USD index.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/05/whats-relationships-between-us-rates.html

I hope I've clarified all the doubts.  Cheers!

US ISM PMI increase to 61.2 in May 2021.

The prices had remained at a lofty level (88, -1.6) because of the persistent high freight costs, higher crude prices, and rising material prices which still maintained the supplier’s deliveries at a high level of 78.8 (+3.8) and a higher number indicated slower deliveries.  The producers seemed to be stocking up on inventories (50.8, +4.3) in anticipation of rising inflation which increased import and local raw material.

The employment (50.9, -4.2) fell in sync with the drop in production (58.4, -4) which might denote some problem in increasing production.  This could be due to difficulties in retaining and finding workers.

The new order increased to 67 (+2.7) because of rising new export and local orders which caused the customers’ inventories to be depleted further.  As the producers couldn’t produce enough to meet the customers’ demands, the backlog order also increased to 70.6 (+2.4).

All the above factors caused the PMI to increase to 61.2 (+0.5).  In conclusion, this PMI indicates that the US economic growth will be sustained in the coming months.  Furthermore, the low customers’ inventories and inflation will keep prices at a lofty level.

Accordia Golf Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/27/20	Amfrasers	Accordia Golf Trust	0.745	0.75	Accept offer