Singapore stock calls for 6 January 2017

US debt is reaching 20T soon!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/the-associated-press-figures-on-government-spending-and-debt.html

The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA.  20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.

Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.

Nikkei index is overbought now!

Having ascended to around 19600 in just 1 day after our recent buy call, Nikkei futures has no more oomph to go much higher and a mini correction has to take place because the market has digested all the positive news and anticipations for the foreseeable future.  This is what we call "buy on rumour and sell on fact".

Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.

Current futures = 19500 (Today closing)

Expected futures = 18500

Date from 5 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 64 days

Upside deviation for past 1 month= 2.51%

Downside deviation for past 1 month = -1.32%

Risk-free rate = 2.46% as of 4 Jan 16

After inputting all these parameters, the downside probability is 54.2% vs upside probability of 45.8% which is a stark contrast to our posting 2 days ago.  The stark outcome is due to changes in some parameters and is the reason for our buy call termination.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/01/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html 

Singapore stock calls for 5 January 2017

USA is trying to get back at South Korea.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/south-korea-may-be-named-currency-manipulator-think-tanks-warn

USA is trying to get back at South Korea over Qualcomm fine.  South Korea has to fight trade wars against China and USA now.

SG tanks are still impounded by HK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-armoured-vehicles-still-impounded-hong-kong-authorities-062118592.html

The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China.  China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do.  We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore.  We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation.  Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.

South Korea ruling party is still adamant about THAAD installation.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/korea-vows-us-missile-system-opposition-lawmakers-head-063749858.html

South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA.  THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons.  North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against.  Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.

Singapore stock calls for 4 January 2017

There is no turning back for Singapore anymore.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/china-starts-freight-train-to-london-as-xi-promotes-trade-ties

China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore.  Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.

This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China.  This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.

Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides! - Part 2

Current futures = 19080 (last closing)

Expected futures = 19600

Date from 2 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 67 days

Upside deviation for Dec 2016= 1.45%

Downside deviation for Dec 2016 = -1.32%

Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 30 December 16

As Nikkei has risen more than 1000 points from our buy call, it has shown that Nikkei has digested all the exigent circumstances like Brexit and Trump victory.  Therefore, the past data will no longer have any bearing on the future and we’ll only use December 2016 for our data analysis.

After inputing all the above parameters, binomial probability for upside is 63.9% and downside is 36.1%.  Therefore, if the fundamental factors like yen weaknesses and interest rate rises do not change, Nikkei will continue to rise further.

Part 1.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/12/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html

Singapore stock calls for 3 January 2017

China refuses to grant South Korea air rights.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/south-korea-considers-%E2%80%9Cmeasures%E2%80%9D-as-china-blocks-charter-flights

This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system.  When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you.  This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.

Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says

Floating pyramid structure in the sky

USA has lost leadership and influence in Middle East.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-announces-ceasefire-syria-midnight-125712235.html

Russia has brokered the ceasefire pact in Syria without USA involvement.  This shows that Russia has managed to prove its true mettle and influence in Middle East.

US rig count - 658

HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by five this week to 658.

A year ago, 698 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent weeks.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 525 rigs sought oil and 132 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.

Texas gained three rigs, Oklahoma added two and New Mexico and North Dakota were up one each.

Kansas declined by one rig.

Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Louisiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming were all unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.

Our poll result for Malay reserved president.

Only 20% supported a Malay reserved president!

Singapore first casualty in the expected economic slump.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-inchcape-sack-120-workers-074155097.html

If you have read our previous postings, you will know that we're less sanguine about our economic growth because of China containment for Singapore economic growth which is leading to lesser sea freight demands and diminishing port volumes.

Singapore stock calls for 30 December 2016

USA is nothing but a troublemaker!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/philippines-duterte-calls-u-envoys-spies-over-alleged-125215301.html

USA is a troublemaker wherever it is present.  Just look at Syria, Iraq, Afganistan, Palestine, Turkey, South Korea, Philippines and South China Sea.  No wonder it is losing support and getting alienated in Asia.

USA has been supporting and grooming terrorists in Middle East.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/turkey-insists-us-provided-weapons-kurdish-militia-102217736.html

It's a known fact to political scientists that USA created terrorists in the Middle East.  Therefore, it's not surprising that Turkey is accusing USA of supporting terrorists.  USA abandoned the terrorists when it couldn't control them anymore, just like USA abandoned Israel in UN.

USA is known to be an unreliable partner and ally and we should stay away from USA.