Baltic dry index - 983

Today, Thursday, January O5 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 983 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

US rig count - 665

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by seven this week to 665.

A year ago, 664 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent weeks.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 529 rigs sought oil and 135 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.

New Mexico and Texas each gained three rigs, Louisiana added two and Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania each added one.

Wyoming declined by two rigs and Alaska lost one.

Arkansas, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.

Let's stop harping on South China Sea for the new year as world economies won't be good.

USA is good at fabricating false intelligence and also is a great storyteller.

USA interfered in South China Sea (SCS) in the name of freedom of navigation (FON).  Let's check out the facts.  USA endorsed China's claims on SCS at the end of WW2 because it sent USA naval vessels to accompany China to retake the islands.  Thus, China has been proclaiming the SCS rights for the past 70 years already.

Is there really a concern for freedom of navigation.  There is not a single case of commercial liners being stopped by China in SCS over 70 years.  Furthermore, commercial liners do not want to sail through Spratly islands because of the treacherous terrain like reefs and rocks.  Please see the commercial sea routes for SCS below.

No shippers want to sail through Spratly islands.  As such, there is no point to promote freedom of navigation for Spratly islands.  It's pretty obvious that the USA has ulterior motive by sailing through Spratly islands in the name of FON and we are supporting USA for the wrong reason.

US intelligence stands firm on Russia finding

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-intelligence-chiefs-stand-firm-on-russia-findings/3417456.html

The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.

USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.

AMKTC vs AHTC

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/avoid-premature-speculation-on-ang-mo-kio-town-council-case-workers-party-084355478.html

PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now!  Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?

AI trumps humans again!

http://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-gaming/article/2059568/winning-online-go-master-revealed-be-ai-programme-deepmind

This is a significant step forward for AI.  Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess.  There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity.  Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.

In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.

Singapore stock calls for 6 January 2017

US debt is reaching 20T soon!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/the-associated-press-figures-on-government-spending-and-debt.html

The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA.  20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.

Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.

Nikkei index is overbought now!

Having ascended to around 19600 in just 1 day after our recent buy call, Nikkei futures has no more oomph to go much higher and a mini correction has to take place because the market has digested all the positive news and anticipations for the foreseeable future.  This is what we call "buy on rumour and sell on fact".

Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.

Current futures = 19500 (Today closing)

Expected futures = 18500

Date from 5 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 64 days

Upside deviation for past 1 month= 2.51%

Downside deviation for past 1 month = -1.32%

Risk-free rate = 2.46% as of 4 Jan 16

After inputting all these parameters, the downside probability is 54.2% vs upside probability of 45.8% which is a stark contrast to our posting 2 days ago.  The stark outcome is due to changes in some parameters and is the reason for our buy call termination.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/01/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html 

Singapore stock calls for 5 January 2017

USA is trying to get back at South Korea.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/south-korea-may-be-named-currency-manipulator-think-tanks-warn

USA is trying to get back at South Korea over Qualcomm fine.  South Korea has to fight trade wars against China and USA now.

SG tanks are still impounded by HK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-armoured-vehicles-still-impounded-hong-kong-authorities-062118592.html

The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China.  China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do.  We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore.  We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation.  Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.

South Korea ruling party is still adamant about THAAD installation.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/korea-vows-us-missile-system-opposition-lawmakers-head-063749858.html

South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA.  THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons.  North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against.  Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.

Singapore stock calls for 4 January 2017

There is no turning back for Singapore anymore.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/china-starts-freight-train-to-london-as-xi-promotes-trade-ties

China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore.  Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.

This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China.  This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.

Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides! - Part 2

Current futures = 19080 (last closing)

Expected futures = 19600

Date from 2 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 67 days

Upside deviation for Dec 2016= 1.45%

Downside deviation for Dec 2016 = -1.32%

Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 30 December 16

As Nikkei has risen more than 1000 points from our buy call, it has shown that Nikkei has digested all the exigent circumstances like Brexit and Trump victory.  Therefore, the past data will no longer have any bearing on the future and we’ll only use December 2016 for our data analysis.

After inputing all the above parameters, binomial probability for upside is 63.9% and downside is 36.1%.  Therefore, if the fundamental factors like yen weaknesses and interest rate rises do not change, Nikkei will continue to rise further.

Part 1.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/12/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html

Singapore stock calls for 3 January 2017

China refuses to grant South Korea air rights.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/south-korea-considers-%E2%80%9Cmeasures%E2%80%9D-as-china-blocks-charter-flights

This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system.  When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you.  This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.

Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says

Floating pyramid structure in the sky

USA has lost leadership and influence in Middle East.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-announces-ceasefire-syria-midnight-125712235.html

Russia has brokered the ceasefire pact in Syria without USA involvement.  This shows that Russia has managed to prove its true mettle and influence in Middle East.