Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Triyards falls about 20% today!
Triyards is also affected by Ezra's bankruptcy. We raised this concern in our previous posting.
What could WTO do for South Korea?
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/south-korea-complains-wto-over-chinas-response-anti-033217183--business.html
SK had filed a complaint about China in WTO but could WTO do anything for SK?
WTO back-stabbed China by not granting market economy status automatically to China but China still supported WTO when USA stated it would ignore any WTO ruling.
WTO would be a useless organization if China also declared overtly that WTO had no jurisdiction. USA and China are trying to establish a cordial relationship in April 2017 when the 2 countries meet in USA. They will charter how the relationship will be for the next 50 years which will be of paramount importance for the world.
If WTO rules against China, China may retaliate by standing behind USA to ignore WTO ruling. This will definitely make WTO look bad.
SK had filed a complaint about China in WTO but could WTO do anything for SK?
WTO back-stabbed China by not granting market economy status automatically to China but China still supported WTO when USA stated it would ignore any WTO ruling.
WTO would be a useless organization if China also declared overtly that WTO had no jurisdiction. USA and China are trying to establish a cordial relationship in April 2017 when the 2 countries meet in USA. They will charter how the relationship will be for the next 50 years which will be of paramount importance for the world.
If WTO rules against China, China may retaliate by standing behind USA to ignore WTO ruling. This will definitely make WTO look bad.
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Rickmers will have a hard time to restructure its loans.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/rickmers-has-until-april-15-to-give-bankers-a-plan
Brilliant analysts will know that the shipping industry cannot withstand economic downturns. Many shippers will renege on its long-term chartering contracts with shipping trusts during economic downturns because many shippers cannot survive the downturns and have to downsize. Shipping trusts can't do anything or sue their customers because their customers won't use shipping reits anymore if they get sued.
When shipping trusts are losing customers and ship values are declining simultaneously, banks will demand the shipping trusts to top up the difference in ship values or recall the ship loans. Therefore, it's very difficult for the shipping trusts to restructure their loans unless creditors are willing to take heavy writedowns.
Brilliant analysts will know that the shipping industry cannot withstand economic downturns. Many shippers will renege on its long-term chartering contracts with shipping trusts during economic downturns because many shippers cannot survive the downturns and have to downsize. Shipping trusts can't do anything or sue their customers because their customers won't use shipping reits anymore if they get sued.
When shipping trusts are losing customers and ship values are declining simultaneously, banks will demand the shipping trusts to top up the difference in ship values or recall the ship loans. Therefore, it's very difficult for the shipping trusts to restructure their loans unless creditors are willing to take heavy writedowns.
Emas Offshore gives bankruptcy warning!
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/emas-offshore-warns-against-going-concern-issue-after-ezras-chapter-11-filing
Ezra owns about 75% of Emas and Emas is affected by Ezra's bankruptcy. Let's see Triyards will declare the same concern or not as Ezra owns about 61%.
Ezra owns about 75% of Emas and Emas is affected by Ezra's bankruptcy. Let's see Triyards will declare the same concern or not as Ezra owns about 61%.
What happened to Nam Cheong today?
Nam Cheong tanked about 33% earlier in the day because of financial concerns raised by its auditor.
Let's look at Nam Cheong stock calls.
There is not a single BUY call for Nam Cheong except from Amfraser in the past. Therefore, there is no real reason to buy Nam Cheong and retail investors would have avoided this company and suffer no real losses. Avoid oil & gas companies because their customers cannot withstand economic downturns based on qualitative analysis.
Let's look at Nam Cheong stock calls.
There is not a single BUY call for Nam Cheong except from Amfraser in the past. Therefore, there is no real reason to buy Nam Cheong and retail investors would have avoided this company and suffer no real losses. Avoid oil & gas companies because their customers cannot withstand economic downturns based on qualitative analysis.
What led to Ezra's bankruptcy in USA?
2 ship owners cancelled chartering agreements with Ezra and Ezra's invoices were piling up fast. The shipping industry is a precarious environment and many shippers cannot withstand recessions or economic downturns. However, this is often not highlighted by analysts in their qualitative section of their research reports.
Monday, March 20, 2017
Stock calls for Ezra.
Lim & Tan had warned about Ezra in Oct 2016 by giving an AVOID call, CIMB gave a REDUCE call in June 2016 and UOB gave a SELL call as early as August 2016. Therefore, investors would have avoided Ezra as early as June 2016 without suffering from this mayhem (Bankruptcy).
DBS economists are so optimistic about Singapore GDP growth in 2017.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapores-gdp-growth-forecast-hit-022600862.html
Let's hope DBS economists don't make the same mistake as their CEO regarding swiber and ezra.
Let's hope DBS economists don't make the same mistake as their CEO regarding swiber and ezra.
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Crude oil spa is the latest fashion now!
Germany may file WTO suit against USA but it's just a wishful thinking.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/could-file-suit-against-trump-072829873.html
Trump had already said he would ignore WTO ruling and Germany couldn't do anything about it unless Germany wanted to start a trade war with USA. If Germany makes Trump too furious, Trump will no longer support NATO and other EU members will blame Germany for USA withdrawal from NATO. The ensuing outcome will be Germany will have to swallow this border tax thing and suck its thumb in a corner.
Trump had already said he would ignore WTO ruling and Germany couldn't do anything about it unless Germany wanted to start a trade war with USA. If Germany makes Trump too furious, Trump will no longer support NATO and other EU members will blame Germany for USA withdrawal from NATO. The ensuing outcome will be Germany will have to swallow this border tax thing and suck its thumb in a corner.
Baltic dry index - 1196
Today, Friday, March 17 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 24 points, reaching 1196 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Cosco & Sembcorp Marine.
US rig count - 789
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 21 this week to 789.
A year ago, 476 rigs were active.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 631 rigs sought oil and 157 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Oklahoma increased by 10 rigs, North Dakota added five, Texas gained four, Colorado and Utah were each up two, and Alaska gained one.
Wyoming lost two. Louisiana and New Mexico dropped one each.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
Friday, March 17, 2017
South Korea is so ignorant about THAAD.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/south-korea-says-china-lacks-understanding-thaad-060127296.html
Military experts know that THAAD is useless against NK because NK will use mobile rockets launchers against SK as NK has more than 10,000 such launchers. THAAD is useless against rockets launchers. NK's rockets launchers can target Seoul because of the close proximity.
http://38north.org/2016/03/jlewis030716/
Military experts know that THAAD is useless against NK because NK will use mobile rockets launchers against SK as NK has more than 10,000 such launchers. THAAD is useless against rockets launchers. NK's rockets launchers can target Seoul because of the close proximity.
http://38north.org/2016/03/jlewis030716/
Singapore non-oil domestic exports surge significantly.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/february-exports-surge-21-5-in-4th-straight-month-of-growth/3602896.html
Singapore is doing well because of China as China is our biggest export destination. February is an exceptional month because of CNY exports to Chinese countries like Taiwan and China. This is just an aberration which will not be repeated after February. This CNY export was definitely better than last year's CNY as there's burgeoning growth in the Chinese middle class. China is changing its economy structurally into a consuming nation.
We have to be wary of our dependent on China as SK's lesson is what we will encounter in the future when we offend China.
Singapore is doing well because of China as China is our biggest export destination. February is an exceptional month because of CNY exports to Chinese countries like Taiwan and China. This is just an aberration which will not be repeated after February. This CNY export was definitely better than last year's CNY as there's burgeoning growth in the Chinese middle class. China is changing its economy structurally into a consuming nation.
We have to be wary of our dependent on China as SK's lesson is what we will encounter in the future when we offend China.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Corruption is still rampant in KLIA. Taiwanese girl was detained wrongfully.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201703150010.aspx
This incident is widely reported on Taiwan news channels and China.
How could a Taiwanese girl be detained for 35 hours for no offence? To detain someone for 35 hours is no small matter and require a high ranking officer to approve such detention. Malaysia should just refuse entry and close the case if this to be handled properly. However, the Malaysian custom officer saw this as an opportunity to demand money from the traveller.
Malaysia Boleh!
This incident is widely reported on Taiwan news channels and China.
How could a Taiwanese girl be detained for 35 hours for no offence? To detain someone for 35 hours is no small matter and require a high ranking officer to approve such detention. Malaysia should just refuse entry and close the case if this to be handled properly. However, the Malaysian custom officer saw this as an opportunity to demand money from the traveller.
Malaysia Boleh!
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