Neo Group - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/16	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.605	0.82	Buy	DCF
02/10/16	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.61	0.82	Buy	DCF
03/28/16	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.675	0.82	Buy
01/03/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.62	0.8	Buy
02/10/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.575	0.61	Neutral	DCF
03/29/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.585	0.61	Neutral	DCF
05/26/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.57	0.62	Neutral
08/10/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.68	0.64	Neutral	PER21x FY18
11/14/17	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.66	0.64	Neutral	PER21x FY18

Nam Lee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/16/16	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.37	0.69	Buy	DDM & PER12.1x
11/30/16	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.39	0.6	Buy	DDM & PER9.8x FY17
02/06/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.37	0.52	Buy	DCF
05/17/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.355	0.52	Buy	DCF, PER12.4x FY17
08/16/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.37	0.51	Buy	DCF, PER11.5x FY17
11/29/17	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.395	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER11.1x FY18, PB0.96x FY18

Stock calls for 6 February 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/06/18	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.375	0.39	Hold	Buy @ $0.35
02/06/18	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.375	0.43	Buy
02/06/18	UOB Kay Hian	Manulife US Reit	0.92	1.12	Buy	DDM
02/06/18	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	0.92	1	Hold
02/06/18	CIMB	Sarine	1.05	1.56	Add	PER17.2x CY19
02/06/18	DMG & Partners	Singapore Medical	0.58	0.79	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY18

Stock markets are falling like crazy because of rising treasury yield.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.my/2017/12/the-us-risk-free-rate-is-stagnant-for.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.my/2017/10/us-treasury-yields-had-been-rising-for.html

If you guys had read our previous postings, you would have expected this huge stock market fall as the US 10-year bond yield was almost approaching 3%.

We've stated that the stock market would react negatively when the US 10-year bond yield was approaching 3%.

We've also stated that the US interest rate would continue to rise and investors were in denial previously.

Bitcoin falls to $6000 now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-drops-more-14-below-185000041.html

We've been warning that Bitcoin has not reached bottom yet in our previous posting.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.my/2018/02/bitcoin-dropped-below-8000-but-bottom.html

Many investors are suffering huge losses in Bitcoin and are likely to get out of the crypto market now because they've come to realize that Bitcoin is nothing valuable.

China credit rating firm, Dagong, is right about USA afterall.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-may-borrow-nearly-1t-070500158.html

The USA has to issue almost USD$1T of bonds to finance its spending in 2018 and Trump's tax policies will add USD$2T of debt.

It will be a matter of time that people will lose their confidence in USA repayment ability.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/there-are-valid-points-in-dagong-credit.html

China is going all out to eradicate crypto trading!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-looks-stamp-cryptocurrency-trading-091930615.html

Bitcoin will continue to fall further!

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-drops-8k-crypto-market-recovery-falters/

The USA is adamant to destroy Venezuela.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-02-05/china-rebuffs-us-criticism-of-relations-with-oil-rich-venezuela

China has to defend Venezuela to protect its own investments and also for the humanitarian reason.

The people are already suffering greatly from the hyperinflation in the country.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/venezuela-president-is-urging-its.html

Nam Cheong - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/16	UOB Kay Hian	Nam Cheong	0.135	0.12	Sell
01/15/16	UOB Kay Hian	Nam Cheong	0.113	0.09	Sell
02/15/16	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.094	0.07	Fully Valued	PB0.4x FY16
02/26/16	Amfrasers	Nam Cheong	0.097	0.07	Sell	PB0.3x FY16
03/07/16	UOB Kay Hian	Nam Cheong	0.103	0.085	Sell
03/31/16	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.11	0.07	Fully Valued
05/16/16	Amfrasers	Nam Cheong	0.076	0.11	Buy	PB0.5x FY16
05/16/16	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.076	0.07	Fully Valued
05/20/16	UOB Kay Hian	Nam Cheong	0.084	0.065	Sell
06/09/16	UOB Kay Hian	Nam Cheong	0.092	0.07	Sell
08/12/16	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.06	0.04	Fully Valued
08/17/16	Amfrasers	Nam Cheong	0.047	0.05	Hold	PB0.4x FY16
11/11/16	Amfrasers	Nam Cheong	0.067	0.07	Hold	PB0.5x FY17
11/11/16	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.067	0.04	Fully Valued	PB0.2x
12/02/16	UOB Kay Hian	Nam Cheong	0.068	0.055	Sell
03/01/17	DBS Vickers	Nam Cheong	0.055	0.04	Fully Valued	PB0.2x
07/20/17	Lim & Tan	Nam Cheong	0.021	0	Avoid

Moya Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/04/17	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.118	0.17	Buy	DCF, PER13.8x FY18
11/14/17	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.101	0.17	Buy	DCF
01/24/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.098	0.17	Buy

Stock calls for 5 February 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	0.885	0.97	Buy	DCF
02/05/18	Kim Eng	Guocoland	2.22	2.95	Buy	RNAV (20% discount)
02/05/18	Macquarie	OCBC	12.81	14	Outperform
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.755	0.73	Hold	DCF
02/05/18	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	3.57	3.95	Buy	Sum of parts
02/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	3.33	4	Buy	DCF
02/05/18	phillip	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.51	Accumulate	DCF
02/05/18	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.5	Hold	PER21x FY19
02/05/18	CIMB	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.13	Reduce	DCF
02/05/18	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	3.33	0	Hold
02/05/18	OCBC	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.7	Buy	DCF
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	3.33	3.86	Buy
02/05/18	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.38	1.58	Add	DCF
02/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	1.38	1.62	Buy	Sum of parts
02/05/18	Kim Eng	Singapore Post	1.38	1.5	Buy	DCF
02/05/18	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	1.38	1.61	Buy	DCF

Tension is rising at China-India border again.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-42834609

https://in.news.yahoo.com/keep-building-infrastructure-doklam-india-not-china-084204623.html

It is without any doubt that Doklam is China's territory but India and the western media want to portray otherwise.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/doklam-has-always-been-under-chinas-jurisdiction-minister/articleshow/59742071.cms

Both sides are building up military powers near the borders and there is a high probability that skirmishes will happen again in the future especially when Indian drones like to intrude upon China's airspace.

Trade war has started between China & USA.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-us-sorghum/china-launches-dumping-probe-into-u-s-sorghum-imports-amid-rising-trade-tension-idUSKBN1FO06C

China has retaliated by imposing a dumping probe into the importation of Sorghum from the USA.

This is a brilliant move by the Chinese as farmers are Trump's supporters.  When Trump's supporters get hit badly, Trump's support will wilt.

Philippines wants to displace Singapore in ASEAN.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/163587/duterte-china-sea-pirates-terrorism-southeast-asia-combat-security-defense

The Philippines is getting ambitious about gaining more political influences in ASEAN and is not contented with just being an ASEAN facilitator.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/11/china-has-replaced-singapore-with.html

The Philippines is trying to enlist China to help secure the marine security in ASEAN and may grant a military base to China to fulfill this agenda.  This is akin to Singapore granting the USA a military naval base in Singapore.

The Philippines is getting proactive in pushing its agenda to increase its importance and influences in ASEAN by collaborating with China. It knows that by leveraging on China's support and backing, its economic and political prowess will improve by leaps and bounds in ASEAN.  The Philippines economy is growing at more than twice of Singapore's in recent times and it wants to displace Singapore to become an important ASEAN member.

http://business.inquirer.net/243868/breaking-business-world-bank-asean-economy-fastest-growth-2018-global-economic-prospects-gdp

Singapore government doesn't know how to increase economic growth in other ways except to boost the population.

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/big-read-foreigner-issue-are-we-ready-rethink

Higher spatial population distribution will lead to an increase in social tension but social tension is difficult to measure.  Therefore, we can only monitor the symptoms of social tension from the mildest to the most severe civil disorders to detect the ever-rising social tension.  Look like our government has not learnt from the past lessons and our sociologists are not being cognizant of our society.

Singapore increased its population the most in the last decade and our society encountered all forms of social tension within the last decade.  The following civil disorders from the mildest to the most severe are: Vitriol, Conflict, Protest, Strike & Riot.

Let's look at the 5 civil disorders which happened before in SG:

Civil disorder 2014
Vitriol - Anton Casey
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/anton-casey-loses-job-friends

Civil disorder 2015
Conflict – Jason Blair Unger
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/cyclist-mischief-charge

Civil disorder 2014
Protest – Anti-Philippines protest
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-protest-against-filipinos-rekindles-anti-foreign-anger-175914561.html

Civil disorder 2012
Strike – SMRT Chinese bus drivers
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/-over-100-chinese-bus-drivers-in-s-pore-go-on-strike-105924025.html

Civil disorder 2013
Riot – Little India’s riot
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/little-india-riot-one-year-later-the-night-that-changed-singapore

From the aforementioned examples, we could see that SG encountered all the civil disorders (mildest to the most severe) in a short span of time from 2012 to 2015 because of the ever-increasing population which led to higher spatial distribution.  History will repeat itself when we don't take history seriously and I can't find SG encountering all the civil disorders in other decades when there is no sudden influx of foreigners.

You cannot use credit cards to buy bitcoin soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/bofa-to-decline-all-cryptocurrency-transactions-on-credit-cards

Another setback for bitcoin! Credit cards cannot be used to buy bitcoins soon!

Genting casino business will be greatly affected by Hainan casino.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-hainan-gambling/china-considering-allowing-gambling-in-hainan-bloomberg-idUSL4N1PS3ER

The Chinese don't need to travel far to gamble anymore when the Hainan casino is opened.  The Chinese make up a large portion of gamblers in Asia and their travel preferences will affect any casino's business.

However, if the China government restricts local citizens from gambling in their own country, then Genting business won't be affected much.  Let's see how this will pan out.

Bitcoin dropped below 8000 but the bottom was still not in sight yet.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-letup-for-bitcoin-as-cryptocurrency-drops-further-below-9000-2018-02-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

We've warned previously that bitcoin prices have not reached bottom yet.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/cryptocurrencies-have-crashed-but-have.html

Many investors are starting to face up to the reality that bitcoin is a big scam now.  Recent investors have lost a lot of money in bitcoin and will start to lose confidence in bitcoin if the prices do not recover in the next few months.  However, the upcoming G20 summit will put crypto regulations on the agenda and this will depress bitcoin prices further.

The huge fall in the stock market on Friday (yesterday) also put pressure on bitcoin investors because bitcoin market cannot get new buyers or investors.

Baltic dry index - 1095

Today, Friday, February 02 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 19 points, reaching 1095 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 946

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. fell by one this week to 946.

That exceeds the 729 rigs that were active this time a year ago.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported Friday that 765 rigs drilled for oil this week and 181 for gas.

Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Colorado increased by two and North Dakotaand Ohio each gained one.

Wyoming lost three rigs and Louisiana and Texas each decreased by one.

Alaska, Arkansas, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco