Stock calls for 14 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.49	0.56	Buy	PER12x FY20
10/14/19	Kim Eng	Sheng Siong	1.15	0.96	Sell	DCF
10/14/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.13	1.05	Hold
10/14/19	CIMB	ST Engineering	4.02	4.36	Add

Baltic dry index - 1924

Today, Friday, October 11 2019,  the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 5 points, reaching 1924 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

====================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 856

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Is the US going to abandon Hong Kong soon?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-and-china-have-reached-hollow.html

The US and China had just reached a partial trade deal.

In order for this partial trade deal to materialize, the US and China will have to negotiate and put in writing the details.  However, if the US were to continue to create chaos in HK, this trade deal might not materialize.

Therefore, the US is highly likely to abandon HK to get the trade deal done.  The US will not hesitate to abandon HK because it has just abandoned its staunch Kurds.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-usa-has-abandoned-syrian-kurds-part.html

Do not take Boeing 737 because it is a flying coffin.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/aviation-experts-blast-faa-over-131707003.html

FAA is just trying to get Boeing 737 off the ground because it is in cahoots with Boeing.  FAA is ignoring passengers' safety now.

HK finance chief is really brainless.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-urges-property-developers-092703886.html

How can the HK finance chief ask the landlords and property developers to cut rents for retailers when the banks don't cut the mortgage instalments for these landlords and developers?  This is a back-to-back problem.

The HK finance chief is just trying to protect the banking sector by asking the property owners to sacrifice themselves for the greater good.

My observations of the HK protests. - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/news/no-one-showed-hong-kongs-070141921.html

Our previous analysis had come to fruition.  The protest size has shrunk!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/my-observations-of-hk-protests.html

Without getting paid, these so-called protestors are no longer interested to protest.

The US FED will start to purchase $60b T-bills per month in mid October 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-fed-buy-60-bln-153937503.html

The overnight RRP had been in chaos since September 2019 and spiked above its set range.

Why is this happening?

First of all, overnight RRP is a short-term agreement to purchase securities in order to sell back the same securities the next day (overnight) at a profit (interest earned).

When the overnight RRP spikes, it means that the buyers/investors do not have faith in the securities being offered as collaterals or there are not enough buyers/investors around in the market.

Whatever is the case, this spike denotes a bad economic or financial situation that can spill over to other financial assets and destabilize the financial market.  Therefore, the US government has to step in to stabilize the short-term situation by purchasing the T-bills to show that the securities offered are not non-performing collateralized loans.

The US and China have reached a hollow partial trade deal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/11/us-stocks-poised-big-bounce-expectations-grow-us-china-trade-deal/

Nothing concrete is being announced except that China will buy more US agricultural products and the US will hold back the 15 October tariff but all the existing tariffs will still be in effect.

Therefore, this US-China trade truce is just a hollow deal and it can change anytime since Trump likes to flip-flop a lot.

Let's see how this will pan out in the future.

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.75	1.9	Accumulate
01/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.82	2.11	Buy	DDM
01/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.83	1.68	Hold
01/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2.16	Buy	DDM
01/25/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.85	1.86	Neutral	DDM
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.85	2	Buy	DCF
01/25/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.85	0	Hold
01/28/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.83	Hold
01/28/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.9	1.94	Add
02/15/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.86	1.93	Accumulate
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.98	1.86	Neutral
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.92	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.93	Neutral	DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.86	Neutral	DDM
04/22/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	1.93	1.88	Hold
04/22/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.03	Add	DDM
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.16	Buy
04/22/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF
04/22/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	1.93	0	Hold
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.9	2.16	Buy
05/17/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	1.93	2.1	Buy	DCF, PB1.15x
05/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	1.95	2.16	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.05	2.16	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.11	1.93	Neutral
06/24/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.14	1.88	Sell
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	2.23	1.86	Neutral
07/17/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.18	1.88	Sell
07/17/19	Lim & Tan	CapitaCommercial	2.18	0	Hold
07/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.17	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.4	Buy	DCF
07/18/19	Kim Eng	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.8	Hold
07/18/19	OCBC	CapitaCommercial	2.17	1.92	Sell
07/18/19	CIMB	CapitaCommercial	2.17	2.25	Add
07/19/19	DMG & Partners	CapitaCommercial	2.15	1.98	Neutral	DDM
07/22/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.15	2.18	Neutral	DDM
08/26/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.07	2.18	Neutral
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	CapitaCommercial	2.08	2.04	Hold	Buy @ $1.85
08/30/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.13	2.3	Buy	DCF
09/24/19	Phillip	CapitaCommercial	2.11	2.18	Neutral
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaCommercial	2.04	2.3	Buy

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Neutral	DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.75	Hold	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.76	Hold
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.81	Buy	DDM
01/28/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.74	Hold
01/28/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.75	0.85	Buy
02/15/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.71	0.75	Neutral
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.81	Buy
04/18/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.7	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
04/26/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.88	Buy
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.75	Hold	DCF
04/26/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.745	0.74	Hold
06/17/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.83	Buy	DDM
06/17/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.77	0.78	Hold	DDM
06/19/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.79	0.75	Neutral
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.785	0.83	Buy
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Cache Logistics	0.78	0.75	Hold	DCF
07/22/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.785	0.75	Neutral
07/26/19	Kim Eng	Cache Logistics	0.765	0.9	Buy	DDM
07/26/19	DMG & Partners	Cache Logistics	0.765	0.8	Buy	DDM
07/26/19	CIMB	Cache Logistics	0.765	0.76	Hold	DDM
08/26/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.725	0.75	Neutral
09/24/19	phillip	Cache Logistics	0.735	0.75	Neutral

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.67	0.81	Buy
02/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.685	0.81	Buy	PER11x FY19
02/21/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.69	0.96	Buy
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.67	0.67	Neutral	PER11x FY19
02/27/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.675	0.97	Buy	PER13x FY19
02/28/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.665	0.85	Buy	DCF, PER13.9x FY19
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.725	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Buy
05/15/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.69	0.8	Buy	DCF, PER18x FY19
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.7	0.62	Neutral
05/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.69	0.81	Hold
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.665	0.62	Neutral
06/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.615	0.81	Buy
07/02/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.63	1.01	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.605	0.75	Buy	DCF
08/14/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.6	0.54	Neutral	PER14x FY20
08/15/19	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.59	0.69	Buy	DCF, PER18.5x FY19
08/28/19	Kim Eng	Bumitama	0.575	0.8	Buy
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.58	0.6	Neutral	PER16x FY20

Stock calls for 11 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/11/19	CIMB	A-Reit	3.15	3.12	Hold
10/11/19	Amfrasers	AEM	1.16	1.34	Outperform	PER11x FY20
10/11/19	Phillip	ART	1.31	1.42	Accumulate
10/11/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.51	4.2	Buy
10/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.465	0.65	Buy
10/11/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral
10/11/19	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	0.905	1.1	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.91	0.93	Accumulate
10/11/19	phillip	Propnex	0.49	0.59	Buy
10/11/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.3	Accumulate
10/11/19	Phillip	Singtel	3.15	3.45	Accumulate
10/11/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.11	1.09	Hold	DDM
10/11/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.11	1.25	Buy	DCF
10/11/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.11	1.1	Hold	DDM
10/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.615	0.8	Buy	PER11x FY20
10/11/19	Phillip	Venture	15.17	17.68	Buy

Breadtalk - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/21/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.88	0.92	Hold	Sum of parts
02/21/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.88	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.87	0.81	Neutral
05/07/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.835	0.92	Hold
05/08/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.825	0.81	Neutral	Sum of parts
07/02/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.75	0.81	Neutral
08/02/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.715	0.77	Hold	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.69	0.71	Neutral	Sum of parts
09/03/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.665	0.71	Neutral
09/04/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.65	0.67	Neutral	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda7.64x
09/06/19	DBS Vickers	Breadtalk	0.645	0.61	Hold	Sum of parts

BRC Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	BRC Asia	1.37	1.75	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
08/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	BRC Asia	1.31	1.75	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
10/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	BRC Asia	1.34	1.75	Buy

Boustead - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/23/19	CIMB	Boustead	0.735	1	Add	Sum of parts

Stock calls for 10 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/10/19	DMG & Partners	A-Reit	3.12	3	Neutral	DDM
10/10/19	Amfrasers	China Sunsine	1.12	1.4	Outperform	DCF
10/10/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.19	1.21	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
10/10/19	SAC Advisors	Interra Resources	0.026	0.089	Buy	EV/IP reserves 6.4x
10/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Industrial	2.5	2.69	Buy
10/10/19	Kim Eng	Singtel	3.14	3.44	Hold	Sum of parts
10/10/19	DBS Vickers	Singtel	3.14	3.12	Hold	EV/Ebitda6x

PM Lee: Choosing between US and China will be painful.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/choosing-between-us-or-china-will-be-painful-says-pm-lee-cnn-interview

It is not a difficult decision to know which side to choose.  Why?

The US is NEVER a trustworthy country.  Just look at the Kurds.  They fought and died for the US and were easily abandoned by the US after outliving their usefulness.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-usa-has-abandoned-syrian-kurds-part.html

Singaporeans, do you want to suffer the same fate as the Kurds?  The US will have no qualms to abandon SG because we have never fought side by side with the US before.  The US is only interested to sell their weapons to SG!

Furthermore, our neighbour (Malaysia) had chosen China and SG would be on a collision course with Malaysia if we were to side the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/singapore-is-heading-towards-political.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html

In conclusion, it is a no brainer decision but our government is just blindsided.  We need to know what's at stake here.  Malaysia is just next door but the US is so far away.

The US-China trade talk in Washington broke down again!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-china-made-no-231817051.html

This is expected because the US increased the tension prior to the trade talk.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-china-tension-is-rising-rapidly.html

What was the US thinking?

When will China reduce its interest rates? - Part 2

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3032210/china-relaxes-grip-mortgage-rates-and-shanghai-jumps-cut

China has introduced a new property measure by giving empowerment to provincial banks to decide their own mortgage rates.  This is an uncanny central government policy because this involves a big leap of faith in the provincial mayors to rein in their property markets.

Therefore, the central government has also implemented data authenticity accountability as a check and balance measure.  In other words, the provincial mayors and their employees will be punished for fudging their statistics.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/09/WS5d9d17bea310cf3e3556f42c.html

We had stated previously that China would only cut its official interest rates after figuring out how to rein in its property prices.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/when-will-china-reduce-its-interest.html

I guess I am the only one who said what China must do first before cutting its official interest rates.

Nevertheless,  China has staged itself up for an upcoming interest rate cut because China cannot alienate itself from the global rate-cutting frenzy.